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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan (search mode)
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Author Topic: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan  (Read 6120 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


« on: September 16, 2010, 06:31:18 pm »
« edited: September 16, 2010, 06:34:03 pm by wormyguy »

Just thought I'd try out this scenario on President Elect* (Reagan has a running mate from OH): the results were somewhat surprising:

Reagan 53, Humphrey 47

Reagan 433, Humphrey 105



Three-way with George Wallace:

Reagan 50, Humphrey 45, Wallace 5

Reagan 403, Humphrey 125, Wallace 10



Three-way with Eugene McCarthy (running mate from SD Wink):

Reagan 54, Humphrey 41, McCarthy 5

Reagan 513, Humphrey 25



*Still IMHO the best presidential election simulator out there.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2010, 06:42:32 pm »

I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2010, 07:29:43 pm »

I ran it through the simulator.  I personally think it thinks Reagan is too strong of a candidate - it also has him winning in a landslide in '76.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2010, 01:21:46 pm »

I tried running 1964 with Reagan (NY running mate) about 20 times:  This was by far his best showing.  (The results were highly variable - in a couple he did worse than AuH20).

Johnson 50, Reagan 49

Johnson 278, Reagan 260

(AR, IA, MI, NH, TN, and VA were all very close victories for Johnson, WA and NM were very close victories for Reagan).

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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2010, 07:46:21 pm »

I did it anyway.

Trial 1: Kennedy 51, Reagan 48; Kennedy 342, Reagan 195

(Accidentally closed window, lost map, sorry).

Trial 2: Kennedy 53, Reagan 47; Kennedy 446, Reagan 91



Trial 3: Reagan 52, Kennedy 48; Reagan 413, Kennedy 124



Trial 3: Kennedy 52, Reagan 48; Kennedy 395, Reagan 142

Trial 4: Kennedy 50, Reagan 50 (Kennedy wins NPV by fewer than 80,000 votes!); Kennedy 280, Reagan 257



Trial 5

Reagan 50, Kennedy 49; Kennedy 276, Reagan 261 (pop vote winner loses! and by fewer than 600 votes in NV and 2000 in NM!)

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tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2010, 09:38:43 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

I thought IRL 1968 was as bad as it gets . . .
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