|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2020, 04:44:45 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Where is my Freistaat Preußen avatar?, Apocrypha)
  1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan  (Read 6098 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 16, 2010, 06:31:18 pm »
« edited: September 16, 2010, 06:34:03 pm by wormyguy »

Just thought I'd try out this scenario on President Elect* (Reagan has a running mate from OH): the results were somewhat surprising:

Reagan 53, Humphrey 47

Reagan 433, Humphrey 105



Three-way with George Wallace:

Reagan 50, Humphrey 45, Wallace 5

Reagan 403, Humphrey 125, Wallace 10



Three-way with Eugene McCarthy (running mate from SD Wink):

Reagan 54, Humphrey 41, McCarthy 5

Reagan 513, Humphrey 25



*Still IMHO the best presidential election simulator out there.
Logged
Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
Moderator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,806


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -9.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2010, 06:40:28 pm »

Who was the RM from Ohio? James Rhodes?
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2010, 06:42:32 pm »

I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.
Logged
Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2010, 06:49:55 pm »

I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.

I'd think Reagan would have to choose a moderate running mate to ease tensions within the party that had festered in 1968. Someone like John Volpe, William Scranton, Margaret Chase Smith, or even Nelson Rockefeller.
Logged
Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
Moderator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,806


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -9.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2010, 06:50:15 pm »

John Volpe, James Rhodes, John Sherman Cooper, would all be good choices - but Reagan might pick somebody more low-profile. George Romney would be good - but would have too much baggage.
Logged
Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2010, 07:01:14 pm »

Reagan would need someone with a lot of experience, as he'd have to convince the nation that a man with less than two years' experience as Governor is ready for the Presidency.
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,958
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2010, 07:22:39 pm »

I'm confused - did you do this scenario manually, making this your guess, or just recieve them through a simulator? Huh

I agree with Han. He would need someone very experienced as his running mate in order to win. Moderate, too. Even then, I'd make Humphrey the favorite in the race; Reagan was too conservative for the country in 1968.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2010, 07:29:43 pm »

I ran it through the simulator.  I personally think it thinks Reagan is too strong of a candidate - it also has him winning in a landslide in '76.
Logged
Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2010, 07:44:37 pm »

Reagan was a good politician though. He'd be able to make his conservatism marketable, and could easily woo voters to vote for him. He would not make Goldwaterite mistakes like criticizing Social Security in Florida or proposing to sell the TVA in Tennessee. That being said, I think he'd win by a closer margin than Nixon. Here's a close election with Wallace in the picture.


Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/John Volpe (R-MA): 289 EV
Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 204 EV
George Wallace (AI-AL)/Curtis LeMay (AI-CA)

Logged
Dr. Cynic
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,349
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.11, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2010, 09:34:36 pm »

I just ran in through the simulator too. Reagan is very tough to beat in the game. If you turn the war off though and put peace at 6 he can be beaten in 68
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2010, 01:21:46 pm »

I tried running 1964 with Reagan (NY running mate) about 20 times:  This was by far his best showing.  (The results were highly variable - in a couple he did worse than AuH20).

Johnson 50, Reagan 49

Johnson 278, Reagan 260

(AR, IA, MI, NH, TN, and VA were all very close victories for Johnson, WA and NM were very close victories for Reagan).

Logged
When Tables Deserve To Die
The Obamanation
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,393
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2010, 07:02:09 pm »

Now do Reagan-Kennedy in 1960.
Logged
Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
Moderator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,806


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -9.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2010, 07:09:12 pm »


Two Democrats running against eachother Huh
Logged
When Tables Deserve To Die
The Obamanation
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,393
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2010, 07:33:59 pm »

Forgot he was a Democrat back then.

Reagan-Nixon.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2010, 07:46:21 pm »

I did it anyway.

Trial 1: Kennedy 51, Reagan 48; Kennedy 342, Reagan 195

(Accidentally closed window, lost map, sorry).

Trial 2: Kennedy 53, Reagan 47; Kennedy 446, Reagan 91



Trial 3: Reagan 52, Kennedy 48; Reagan 413, Kennedy 124



Trial 3: Kennedy 52, Reagan 48; Kennedy 395, Reagan 142

Trial 4: Kennedy 50, Reagan 50 (Kennedy wins NPV by fewer than 80,000 votes!); Kennedy 280, Reagan 257



Trial 5

Reagan 50, Kennedy 49; Kennedy 276, Reagan 261 (pop vote winner loses! and by fewer than 600 votes in NV and 2000 in NM!)

Logged
Speaker Perez
Alex A. Perez
Rookie
**
Posts: 49
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2010, 06:14:06 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

Logged
Yelnoc
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,011
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2010, 08:26:56 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?
Logged
Cath
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,624
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2010, 02:25:41 pm »

^^ Yeah. Reagan would be more popular in the South than Nixon, and his original plan to win in 1968 had been to court the Southern delegates away from Nixon. If he got the nomination, he woudl probably do the same thing in the general, with probably about the same or better success than Nixon.
Logged
feeblepizza
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,911
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.45, S: -0.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2010, 02:28:13 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?
Logged
Cath
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,624
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2010, 03:03:24 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?

I assume you'te being sarcastic. I think you already know that on this forum, Democrats are red and Republicans are blue.
Logged
feeblepizza
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,911
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.45, S: -0.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2010, 09:14:12 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?

I assume you'te being sarcastic. I think you already know that on this forum, Democrats are red and Republicans are blue.

No, I'm not being sarcastic. The color code at the top states that states colored in blue have been won by Humphrey, and the states colored in red have been won by Reagan.
Logged
Cath
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,624
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2010, 09:19:23 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.
Logged
feeblepizza
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,911
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.45, S: -0.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2010, 09:25:05 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.
Logged
Cath
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,624
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2010, 09:25:59 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.

Ooooooh Yeeeaaaah.
Logged
RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,031
Czech Republic


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2010, 09:30:34 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

No way JFK and Reagan appear on 1 ticket.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines