Venezuelan 2010 Election

[ag]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

He isn't getting 70%. Look at the polls.

Votes - no. Seats - might be. Remember, who was doing the gerrymandering and who will be doing the counting.

[redcommander]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

He isn't getting 70%. Look at the polls.

Votes - no. Seats - might be. Remember, who was doing the gerrymandering and who will be doing the counting.

Yes seat wise it is possible. I think the opposition will have their best results in a legislative election since 1998 though.

[ag]

So, here is the sample ballot:

http://static.eluniversal.com/votacion2010/distritocapital5.jpg

Looks a bit messy, in my opinion. Have you figured out how to vote? I guess, this is how:

This is a combined ballot for the list and for the candidates. The list vote is used to elect 3 members from a larger circumscription (yes, they deliberately have list votes for very small circumscriptions).  This particular district sends two members. Each voter is supposed to vote for the list and separately for the two candidates of his/her choice. This is, I believe, what it means that there are "3 votes to issue". I am really interested in how they will treat things like undervotes and such.

Note, there are many fewer candidates then it appears: you can vote for the same candidate on multiple lines. That's good: this is what allowed the opposition to agree on joint candidates.  There are, really, only 3 blocks, w/ a few minor candidates on top of that. Still, it's a messy ballot, lists are nowhere to be seen, instructions on how to vote are not very clear. It's on top of an unnecessarily complicated electoral system that allows for a lot of nasty gerrymandering.

Here is a great site w/ maps for tomorrow. Has historical results from contested elections/referenda, candidates and such. Enjoy:

http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/01/v2010_inf_parlamentarias-al-de_01A4413973.shtml

[redcommander]

So, here is the sample ballot:

http://static.eluniversal.com/votacion2010/distritocapital5.jpg

Looks a bit messy, in my opinion. Have you figured out how to vote? I guess, this is how:

This is a combined ballot for the list and for the candidates. The list vote is used to elect 3 members from a larger circumscription (yes, they deliberately have list votes for very small circumscriptions).  This particular district sends two members. Each voter is supposed to vote for the list and separately for the two candidates of his/her choice. This is, I believe, what it means that there are "3 votes to issue". I am really interested in how they will treat things like undervotes and such.

Note, there are many fewer candidates then it appears: you can vote for the same candidate on multiple lines. That's good: this is what allowed the opposition to agree on joint candidates.  There are, really, only 3 blocks, w/ a few minor candidates on top of that. Still, it's a messy ballot, lists are nowhere to be seen, instructions on how to vote are not very clear. It's on top of an unnecessarily complicated electoral system that allows for a lot of nasty gerrymandering.

Here is a great site w/ maps for tomorrow. Has historical results from contested elections/referenda, candidates and such. Enjoy:

http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/01/v2010_inf_parlamentarias-al-de_01A4413973.shtml

Thanks for the link. It will be interesting to see if the opposition makes any headway in rural parts of the country.

[ag]

polls closed, I believe

[ag]

It seems there won't be early partial results from the electoral authority: only the full (district?) results will be published, whenever they have those.

[Bacon King]

Hm. Needlessly confusing ballot. I suppose the reasoning is, why bother stuffing the ballot box when you can just selectively discount the misvotes intended for the opposition while allowing the votes for the government.

[redcommander]

I wish they would hurry up with the counting. It would have been nice if they would give partial counts before hand so everyone isn't left in the dark of whats going on.

[ag]

They need time. It's a machine vote, so, you'd think, they'd do it fast and easy. But they need to get very clear results, so that Chavez has something in his hands when talking to the generals to see what announcement they'd tolerate )  At least, that's what they've done in 2007.

[redcommander]

According to caracaschronicles.com, they are projecting that Chavez will at least not have a 2/3 majority in the National Assembly. Whether or not the opposition wins the most seats remains to be seen, but the opposition is getting some positive early numbers to come in at least.

[Hash]

The cemeteries have not finished voting yet, I take it?

[ag]

Seems like there are no real exit polls At least, no nationa exit polls. The gov't has announced soething - they are on track to get 113 to 116 seats (w/ a small majority of the vote), but that's self-serving. Opposition really seems to know very little. This is worrysome - they should have set a system for collecting the polling place data for an alternative count. If they don't have that, they'd be at the mercy of Tibisay Lucena (the head of the electoral authority): this is not a person on whose mercy I'd rely.

[ag]

I am really worried. In 2007 there were, at least, rumors and informal data from polling places on the blogs. It's dead today. Really dead. Unless the opposition really has an alternative counting process they are careful not to advertise, this is going to be entirely impossible to cross-check. This is not India: I don't think anyone is going to bet their house on Tibi Lucena's impartiality. This is very dangerous - and, possibly, bad job by the opposition.

[ag]

The freakin polls have been closed for 4 hours. What the hell are they doing? Unpacking the abacus they've had urgently stolen from the National Museum?

[redcommander]

The freakin polls have been closed for 4 hours. What the hell are they doing? Unpacking the abacus they've had urgently stolen from the National Museum?

I think they should have the first official projection around 10. I am just hoping for at least the PSUV getting pulled under 2/3. Anything to restore checks and balances to Venezuela. If the opposition does better than that, than that is even better.

[ag]

The freakin polls have been closed for 4 hours. What the hell are they doing? Unpacking the abacus they've had urgently stolen from the National Museum?

I think they should have the first official projection around 10. I am just hoping for at least the PSUV getting pulled under 2/3. Anything to restore checks and balances to Venezuela. If the opposition does better than that, than that is even better.

It's past 10 in Caracas, if I am not mistaken (they have that strange time zone).

This is the most ridiculous thing: no announcements before the big announcement. This is designed to make it difficult to monitor things. Even if they win fair and square, this creates a horrible impression. I will never for the sake of my life understand why they are doing it, unless they are thinking of smthgh funny. But then, they did it in 2007 as well, and then recognized the defeat.

[redcommander]

http://alexismarrero.blogspot.com/2010/09/el-triunfo-es-de-la-oposicion-70.html

According to them,The MUD will get around 74 seats. I'm still hoping for a better result though, the blog may be off. The opposition is also doing pretty well in Anzoategui.

[redcommander]

If the opposition did indeed win 3 seats in Sucre, that should help offset any possible target misses in other parts of the country.

[ag]

If the opposition did indeed win 3 seats in Sucre, that should help offset any possible target misses in other parts of the country.

Well, Caracas Chronicle says they needed 2 districts for a majority. If they got 2 district they, most likely, also got one of the list seats. That would just make it running according to schedule. Still, these were among the more difficult one s to get.

[ag]

I have a feeling, they are trying to cook smthg. This is ridiculous: 5 hours.

[MaxQue]

Apparently, Globovision is saying than they are still counting. They are around the three quarters, now, they are saying.

[redcommander]

Expect official results by about 11:35.

[MaxQue]

Expect official results by about 11:35.

11:35 in which time?

[ag]

I am watching Globovision. They are just rehashing stuff w/out any news. "They have done major advances in counting" and such. The only interesting news seems to be that while opposition leaders are visible, the PSUV leaders are not. Everything else is just no news.

[redcommander]

Expect official results by about 11:35.

11:35 in which time?

whoops sorry. Venezuelan time.