primary / caucus map series: 1988 GOP, 1984 DEM
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  primary / caucus map series: 1988 GOP, 1984 DEM
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Author Topic: primary / caucus map series: 1988 GOP, 1984 DEM  (Read 4478 times)
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shua
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« on: August 31, 2010, 10:11:32 PM »
« edited: September 02, 2010, 09:34:20 PM by shua »

(an attempt to show primary results in a form that shows the general trend in time)

1988 GOP Candidates:

George H.W. Bush
Bob Dole
Pat Robertson
Jack Kemp
Pete du Pont

Jan-Feb caucuses and primaries:


sources:http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/02/1988-presidential-primary-calendar.html
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/1988_Primaries
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries,_1988
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shua
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2010, 10:26:25 PM »

Jan-Mar 15

While Dole won some early primaries and caucuses, Bush makes a super Tuesday sweep. Robertson wins a few caucuses, but no primaries.

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shua
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2010, 10:46:53 PM »

Jan-June



after Super Tuesday, the party solidifies its support behind presumptive nominee VP Bush
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2010, 09:21:58 PM »

Alaska has just about the weirdest presidential primary voting history for both parties in the country.  If we're only counting elections in the post-1972 primary reforms era, I think it may have gone with eventual nominee fewer times than any other state.  I think it was something like Jackson and Robertson in '88, Brown in '92, Buchanan in '96....

Michigan also has an interesting primary voting history, curiously enough.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2010, 09:33:48 PM »

Alaska has just about the weirdest presidential primary voting history for both parties in the country.  If we're only counting elections in the post-1972 primary reforms era, I think it may have gone with eventual nominee fewer times than any other state.  I think it was something like Jackson and Robertson in '88, Brown in '92, Buchanan in '96....

Michigan also has an interesting primary voting history, curiously enough.


Alaska went Uncommitted (D) in 1976 and 1980, Reagan (R) in 1980, Hart (D) in 1984, Jackson (D) and Robertson (R) in 1988, Uncommitted again (D) in 1992, Buchanan (R) in 1996, Gore (D) and Bush (R) in 2000 barely, Kerry (D) in 2004, and Obama (D) and Romney (R) in 2008.

Since 1976 in at least partially competitive primaries (not including 1984 R, 1992 R, 1996 D, and 2004 R), Alaska has voted for the eventual nominee 5 of 14 times or 35.7% of the time.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2010, 10:10:59 PM »

Since 1976 in at least partially competitive primaries (not including 1984 R, 1992 R, 1996 D, and 2004 R), Alaska has voted for the eventual nominee 5 of 14 times or 35.7% of the time.

OK, I think 5 out of 14 is lower than any other state, as many of the competitive primaries were only barely competitive, with the winner only losing about 5-10 states.  Not sure what other state could match Alaska on this, though like I said, Michigan has also gone against the grain a fair number of times.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2010, 10:26:12 PM »

Since 1976 in at least partially competitive primaries (not including 1984 R, 1992 R, 1996 D, and 2004 R), Alaska has voted for the eventual nominee 5 of 14 times or 35.7% of the time.

OK, I think 5 out of 14 is lower than any other state, as many of the competitive primaries were only barely competitive, with the winner only losing about 5-10 states.  Not sure what other state could match Alaska on this, though like I said, Michigan has also gone against the grain a fair number of times.


Michigan was 8 for 14 in those same contests.
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shua
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2010, 12:39:21 PM »

I believe Alaska has had conventions or caucuses rather than primaries, and often relatively early in the primary season, which could help explain why it has so often gone its own way.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2010, 01:05:11 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2010, 01:08:06 PM by realisticidealist »

I believe Alaska has had conventions or caucuses rather than primaries, and often relatively early in the primary season, which could help explain why it has so often gone its own way.

Correct.

Shua, are you going to do any more primaries like this?
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shua
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2010, 01:13:30 PM »

I believe Alaska has had conventions or caucuses rather than primaries, and often relatively early in the primary season, which could help explain why it has so often gone its own way.

Correct.

Shua, are you going to do any more primaries like this?

i might give it a try. do you have any in particular you're interested in?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2010, 01:21:49 PM »

I believe Alaska has had conventions or caucuses rather than primaries, and often relatively early in the primary season, which could help explain why it has so often gone its own way.

Correct.

Shua, are you going to do any more primaries like this?

i might give it a try. do you have any in particular you're interested in?

1984 or 1988 D would probably be the most interesting.
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shua
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2010, 08:31:37 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2010, 08:33:20 PM by shua »

1984 D I can do.
1988 D will be a bit trickier - I can't seem to find a concise list of primary results by state (at least on the internet. I may be able to find one at the library)
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2010, 08:54:14 PM »

1988 D will be a bit trickier - I can't seem to find a concise list of primary results by state (at least on the internet. I may be able to find one at the library)

What states are you missing? All the results should be here...I put them there myself.
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shua
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2010, 09:06:05 PM »

1988 D will be a bit trickier - I can't seem to find a concise list of primary results by state (at least on the internet. I may be able to find one at the library)

What states are you missing? All the results should be here...I put them there myself.

looks like the raw data is there. it would just take me some time to comb through it and calculate some of it into percentages.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2010, 09:15:14 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2010, 11:13:02 PM by shua »

1984 DEM primary

Candidates:
Walter Mondale
Gary Hart
Jesse Jackson
John Glenn
George McGovern
Ernest Hollings
Reubin Askew
Alan Cranston

Early primaries and caucuses: Feb20-Mar 10, 1984



through Super Tuesday(March 13):



(Hawaii caucus: Uncommitted)

Feb-Mar:



(SC and KY caucus:Uncommitted)

Feb-April:


Feb-May:


Feb-June 5
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2010, 11:21:32 PM »

1988 D will be a bit trickier - I can't seem to find a concise list of primary results by state (at least on the internet. I may be able to find one at the library)

What states are you missing? All the results should be here...I put them there myself.

I see you also did this:https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.0
very nice work! that'll come in handy.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2010, 06:14:28 AM »

that's great. Cheesy I hope there's more to come.
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