the black vote in 2030

[Non Swing Voter]

The GOP is tripling down on blatant racism.  Why would they improve with the black vote any time soon?  people don't have that short a memory.

1) Not all black voters are ADOS, and non-ADOS black folks were never as Titanium D as ADOS folks even though they're still very D. (This is partly why I'm skeptical of reagente's 2020 estimates for black voters).

2) The GOP's racism isn't solely directed at black people.


My guess is anywhere from 88-12 to 80-20. Depends on how much ADOS voters trend R by, and whether the increasing immigrant Black population changes things.

I'm not sure how the GOP being racist against others helps them with black people??  Just because many of them are equal opportunity racists?

[wbrocks67]

My guess is that the emerging Black middle class will trend GOP.  There is a growing cultural gap, and I get a large number of "You live where," comments from Black suburbanites.

"Urban" may mean, "relating to the city" in 25 years.

Black voters (and minorities in general), have helped the suburbs trend D though. The combination of white college+ trending D as well as minorities moving to to the suburbs and making them more diverse (i.e. Georgia) is what is causing the shift towards D, so not sure what evidence there is that the black middle class would trend GOP?

[CadetCashBoi]

My gut feeling says it stays about the same as now, maybe a point or two more R. I don't think the GOP really could make gains among the black vote without some major changes to their platform. It's possible but not likely. One thing I do find interesting though is that I've read it was younger and less religious black voters that were more likely to vote for Trump so if this group did continue to trend more R it would be interesting if some predictors of voting behavior among whites ended up being inverted among blacks.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

My guess is that the emerging Black middle class will trend GOP.  There is a growing cultural gap, and I get a large number of "You live where," comments from Black suburbanites.

"Urban" may mean, "relating to the city" in 25 years.

Black voters (and minorities in general), have helped the suburbs trend D though. The combination of white college+ trending D as well as minorities moving to to the suburbs and making them more diverse (i.e. Georgia) is what is causing the shift towards D, so not sure what evidence there is that the black middle class would trend GOP?

It’s entirely possible for nonwhites to trend R even as they help shift the suburbs D. They just have to keep voting more D than their white counterparts- even the college+ ones.

I’m somewhat bullish about R gains with black voters, because I’m relatively optimistic about our ability to solve issues of racial justice and equity with regard to the ADOS community, but pessimistic about increasing polarization along gender and educational attainment. You can’t have gentrifiers and gentrified on the same side forever.

[MarkD]

How come nobody in this thread recognized that 2030 will not be a presidential election year?

In the 2032 presidential election, the black vote will probably be between 85% and 90% Democratic.