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Author Topic: west va?  (Read 15272 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: November 05, 2004, 06:42:03 PM »

is it gone for good from the dems.  has it become an extension of the solid republican south.

i knew bush would carry wv.  but the margin of victory was surprising.
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A18
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2004, 06:45:24 PM »

West Virginia > Virginia

Man, I never would have guessed it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2004, 06:48:34 PM »

Here's one I prepared earlier:

well, maybe WV, but I'll give the floor to Al on that one. Smiley

In brief:

1. Kerry seems to have led in WV early on
2. For some insane reason, Kerry's "strategists" decided to silently pull resources out of WV. Although some went to OH, they mostly went to VA. This started almost as soon as they got to WV (ie: early spring. Yes. That early)
3. Because there were less resources in WV the local Party Bosses got angry with the Kerry campaign.
4. Kerry's numbers started to drop because there were less resources/local party bosses pissed off. Result: more resources pulled out, visits cancelled, party bosses even more pissed off. You get the idea. By November State and Federal Parties weren't talking to each other (note that Manchin won the Gubernatorial race in a landslide)
5. Some party bosses began to covertly aid the Bush campaign.
6. Someone (almost certainly a pissed off local boss) began to circulate some evil little leaflets claiming (amoungst other things) that Kerry "wanted to ban the Bible". As a result Evangelical turnout soared.
7. Kerry's campaign failed to seize on the fact that Bush intends to reduce safety regulations in mines. Result? Coalfield turnout more-or-less the same as 2000 (up about 3% on average. Actually down in some areas). Only a solid campaign by the UMW stopped the WV result from turning into a KY like result.
8. Etc, etc, etc

I found out most of this from a (very) reliable source three days ago.


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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2004, 06:50:22 PM »

West Virginia is perhaps the best state to show the problems of the Democrats in the cultural arena.  I'm sure they got killed there because of it.

It still remains a nominally Democrat state locally, though I will say that if KKK Byrd retires in 2006, Republicans will definitely have a very good shot of winning a Senate seat there.

Nationally, West Virginia will only be up-for-grabs again to a cultural conservative inside the Democrat party.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2004, 06:52:59 PM »

That reliable source is being hopeful.  I think that after the RNC in September, which was when Kerry pulled his resources, he was probably behind by a solid 5 points.

Then the culture stuff and the NRA came to the forefront and he got killed afterwards.  The party bosses could have also helped with this defeat too.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2004, 07:08:02 PM »

That reliable source is being hopeful.  I think that after the RNC in September, which was when Kerry pulled his resources, he was probably behind by a solid 5 points.

He's pretty sure that things were being covertly pulled out in the Spring. Very slowly. So that no one would really notice. But he noticed less people week after week.

After the RNC Bush seems to have lead WV by about 5 points (this is true) but that's about the national figure.
Things got weirder and weirder after the RNC... if the National Kerry campaign wanted to lose WV, they couldn't have done a better job.

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Don't forget those evil leaflets ("...wants to ban the Bible...") How to get Evangelical turnout soaring with minimal advirtising costs.

The dark art of black propaganda at it's very finest

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True. Very, very true. Petty grudges and Local Politicians go together like nothing else.
----
As to the initial question: it depends on the candidates (like most states) and whether or not the DNC v WV Dems feud kicks off again.
The one cultural issue that hurts the Dems in WV (most of the others don't sway many voters) is Guns. The Dems need to make a clear distinction between gun control in Inner City Ghettos and Gun Rights in rural areas.
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patrick1
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2004, 07:23:51 PM »

That reliable source is being hopeful.  I think that after the RNC in September, which was when Kerry pulled his resources, he was probably behind by a solid 5 points.

He's pretty sure that things were being covertly pulled out in the Spring. Very slowly. So that no one would really notice. But he noticed less people week after week.

After the RNC Bush seems to have lead WV by about 5 points (this is true) but that's about the national figure.
Things got weirder and weirder after the RNC... if the National Kerry campaign wanted to lose WV, they couldn't have done a better job.

Quote
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Don't forget those evil leaflets ("...wants to ban the Bible...") How to get Evangelical turnout soaring with minimal advirtising costs.

The dark art of black propaganda at it's very finest

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

True. Very, very true. Petty grudges and Local Politicians go together like nothing else.
----
As to the initial question: it depends on the candidates (like most states) and whether or not the DNC v WV Dems feud kicks off again.
The one cultural issue that hurts the Dems in WV (most of the others don't sway many voters) is Guns. The Dems need to make a clear distinction between gun control in Inner City Ghettos and Gun Rights in rural areas.

Al, would you also agree that the coal vote is no longer as large, unified and important as it used to be.
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danwxman
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2004, 07:49:06 PM »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2004, 07:56:04 PM »

Well, I was surprised by the margin myself, but John Kerry didn't seem to want the state. It is interesting, though, because this is a state Dukakis carried.

I think they could be like the rest of the south in that the kind of Democrats the party selects for President don't represent the people in WV, so they may vote GOP.

Rural WV is actually quite nice, for the most part. Been up through there before. There are bad spots, but has anyone ever driven down into an inner city in the northeast? Talk about a horror movie setting!
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JNB
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2004, 07:56:11 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2004, 07:59:27 PM by JNB »

  I will say this, if the Dems find the issues to win in WVA, they will win the presidency. I can understand petty issues such as the Swift Boat ^(*^& would swing 1-2% of the vote and would delviver WVA in close election, but Kerry losing by 13%, worse then what Mondale lost to Reagan by and only a few percentage points less than what Nixon won by in 72 speaks volumes of the issues the Democratic party is facing with areas such as these.

   The Democratic party needs to go to places like WVA, Ross county in Ohio(Chilicothe), and other economically "hard luck" areas and figure out what went wrong.
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zachman
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2004, 09:15:49 PM »

In the short term Byrd should hang on to his seat to alow Manchin to choose his successor if Byrd dies in office. If Byrd resigns I'd be surprised if a Democrat wins his seat (in today's climate).

On the national level: Mark Warner 2008!
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patrick1
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2004, 09:47:34 PM »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.

Exactly the type of thinking that leads to the democrats getting slaughtered in rural areas.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2004, 10:32:59 PM »

al, wv was hotly contested as late as july.
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danwxman
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2004, 11:24:01 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2004, 11:25:36 PM by danwxman »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.

Exactly the type of thinking that leads to the democrats getting slaughtered in rural areas.

I love rural areas....just not West Virginia's.

Seriously, take a drive through some of the dying small towns in northern West Virginia. You will be shocked. It is such a different world. It's actually quite amazing. I helped a good friend of mine (conservative) move into to a house down there. Full size home, built in the 50's....renting it for $100 a month.
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BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2004, 11:25:13 PM »

sounds like when I drive on I-94 through North Dakota and occaisionally check out the little towns on the side out of curiosity. creepy.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2004, 01:31:25 AM »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.

Go to rural areas of PA. Seriously. Coming from a state that has thousands of Amish I believe you have very little room to speak.
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danwxman
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2004, 02:11:42 AM »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.

Go to rural areas of PA. Seriously. Coming from a state that has thousands of Amish I believe you have very little room to speak.

I'm really into traveling dude....I've been through a lot of rural PA and I live very close to Amish country. Southwestern PA is a lot like West Virginia but it seriously gets twenty times worse once you cross that border. I don't know what it is.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2004, 03:58:30 AM »

Al, would you also agree that the coal vote is no longer as large, unified and important as it used to be.

Depopulation has reduced it's importance (not as severe as in Kentucky though), but this has been seriously exaggerated by low turnouts in the Coalfields two Presidential elections in a row.
The frustrating thing is that this time around there was a real chance that it could have soared... all Kerry had to do was make a big fuss over Bush supporting cutting safety regulations in Mines.

Talk about missing an open goal... almost any other candidate would have seized on that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2004, 04:13:01 AM »

  I will say this, if the Dems find the issues to win in WVA, they will win the presidency. I can understand petty issues such as the Swift Boat ^(*^& would swing 1-2% of the vote and would delviver WVA in close election, but Kerry losing by 13%, worse then what Mondale lost to Reagan by and only a few percentage points less than what Nixon won by in 72 speaks volumes of the issues the Democratic party is facing with areas such as these.

   The Democratic party needs to go to places like WVA, Ross county in Ohio(Chilicothe), and other economically "hard luck" areas and figure out what went wrong.

One of the mistakes Kerry made this year, was to do with Iraq; what he should have done was make a point of not making a point of it, and when pressed on it should have gone on about having no intention to play politics with all those personal tradegies.
You get the idea. Focus everything on the Administration, and when they try to make political capital out of it, go on about "playing politics" etc, etc, etc

Oh and make sure not be associated in any way whatsoever with the Anti-War movement.

Extremely cynical, but a vote winner in the sort of places where soldiers get recruited from (it might not look like one to political obsessives, but that sort of stuff has actually worked before)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2004, 04:22:52 AM »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.

Exactly the type of thinking that leads to the democrats getting slaughtered in rural areas.

I love rural areas....just not West Virginia's.

Seriously, take a drive through some of the dying small towns in northern West Virginia. You will be shocked. It is such a different world. It's actually quite amazing. I helped a good friend of mine (conservative) move into to a house down there. Full size home, built in the 50's....renting it for $100 a month.

It's not their fault that they are poor. Quit sounding like a Thatcherite. 

Besides Northern WV is nowt on parts of the Southern Coalfield for poverty. Go to McDowell county, one of the poorest in the entire U.S... the health care system is worse there than in many third world countries.
Oh and it voted 60% for Kerry. Have you got a problem with that? Damn those poor buggers soiling the number of votes for the candidate you voted for.

Immature insults are the last thing WV needs now
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Huckleberry Finn
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2004, 11:39:46 AM »

I have no problem that the state with the highest incest and domestic violence rates voted for Bush.

But seriously, have you ever driven to some of those isolated towns in rural West Virginia? It's downright scary and looks like it's out of a horror movie, I'm not kidding.

Exactly the type of thinking that leads to the democrats getting slaughtered in rural areas.

I love rural areas....just not West Virginia's.

Seriously, take a drive through some of the dying small towns in northern West Virginia. You will be shocked. It is such a different world. It's actually quite amazing. I helped a good friend of mine (conservative) move into to a house down there. Full size home, built in the 50's....renting it for $100 a month.
Sounds much like rural areas in the Eastern and Northern parts of Finland.

I don't think that West Virginia will ever be Democratic state again in the same way like it was decades ago, but it's not yet that conservative state like the rest of the South. Bush got over 60 percent of votes in Alabama, despite that about 1/4 of state's voters are blacks. It seems that nearly 90 percent of whites voted for Bush. Only very few percent of the population of WV is Afro-Americans, what means that almost half of white people in WV still vote for Dems.   
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2004, 01:52:53 PM »

One thing that may - will - make WV look scary to some people is Appalachian geography.
All those dark woods, winding valleys and secret glens...add a few slag heaps...

McDowell County's population has declined from over 90,000 fifty years ago to about 35,000 now - and according to some guy quoted by Michael Moore (is it in Stupid White Men or in Downsize This? Nevermind) very practicing physician there is an immigrant from the third world. The guy himself is a doctor, and a native of Ghana.
American doctors, according to him, wouldn't move there - no chance to make a decent living as too many of your customers will be unable to pay.
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BRTD
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2004, 02:01:56 PM »

Isn't McDowell where that movie October Sky was set?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2004, 02:40:50 PM »

American doctors, according to him, wouldn't move there - no chance to make a decent living as too many of your customers will be unable to pay.

Another reason why the U.S needs an NHS
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2004, 03:01:24 PM »

American doctors, according to him, wouldn't move there - no chance to make a decent living as too many of your customers will be unable to pay.

Another reason why the U.S needs an NHS
Why? So that immigrant doctors can't find a market niche for themselves?
Smiley
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