What Book Are You Currently Reading? (user search)
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  What Book Are You Currently Reading? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading?  (Read 399175 times)
compson III
sutpen
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« on: February 23, 2015, 07:03:55 PM »

Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
I'm a big fan of prospect theory as opposed to mainstream assumptions of rationality, but this critique by Gigerenzer is good to read along with it:
http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf

Human behavior is so domain dependent we should be wary of any experimental studies.  

What's really interesting to me is how institutions and organizational structure can be a domain in which rationality is enhanced.  Behavioral economics needs to link up with sociology and make some headway here.
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compson III
sutpen
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Posts: 63
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2015, 12:47:44 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2015, 12:50:54 PM by compson III »

The thing with prospect theory, as I recall, is that it adds a lot of complication without much extra predictive power. The classic model actually holds up pretty well when you test them against each other.
Predictive power in what sense?  Take hyperbolic discounting.  There's no good way to isolate discount rates anyways.  Ask a sell side analyst where he gets his WACC from...

But in a very indirect sense, relative utility is a great explanation for why we don't see any kind of Beta premium.  People would rather ride the highs with his neighbor than experience  a better long run risk-adjusted return.
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