Senate Races 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.

[Keystone Phil]

How about Mass?  Is Kennedy going to run again?  I remember him saying in 1994 that he wasn't going to run again.  Guess his word is good as gold :-).  This could be a competitive race if he retires, especially if Weld makes another run for the Senate.

Romney for Senate!

[Keystone Phil]

Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.

I don't agree with that.  Remember that pro-life Dem that ran against Sanotrum in 2000?  Ron Klink.  HE LOST!  Only Joe Hoeffel or Chris Heinz can win this seat. 

I think most would agree with me when I say that comparing a candidacy by Casey to the candidacy of Klink is pretty insulting.

Then you say only Hoeffel or Heinz can win this seat. Well what about Rendell? (I don't think Rendell can either but I just want your opinion)

Neither Hoeffel nor Heinz can win Santorum's seat. Heinz is nothing. People will see right through him. Hoeffel would provide a bit of a challenge but in the end it would be a 53-47 Santorum win. Hoeffel can have his union support but he'd do poorly out west with the socially conservative Dems.

[Keystone Phil]

Heinz is young.  I expect him to run for the House first.  Probably will unseat Melissa Hart (people LOVED his father and they would elect him on his name alone).

Klink was a joke of a candidate.  He ran a poor campaign and had way too much dirty laundry.

Bob Casey Jr would be the best challenger for Santorum but the real question is "does he want the job".  He was just elected to a 4-year term as state treasurer so I agree it is highly unlikely he would jump directly at a Senatorial position.

Heinz wouldn't win a House race against Hart. However, if Hart runs for Governor in 2006, that leaves an open seat. Will he run? Possibly. Could he win? Yeah he could win but I don't think he'd win. People would see right through him.

As for Casey, he doesn't want the job. He wants to be Governor.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd like to see how the NJ Senate race plays out. Corzine might run for Gov.

I think he's pretty set against running for Governor in 2005 but I guess it could still happen. If so, the 2006 Senate race could mean the return of Republican Doug Forrester as a Senate candidate (he's running for Governor this year but if he wins the primary and has to face Corzine, it's almost guarenteed he'll lose). The Dems would probably put up either Bob Menendez or popular south Jersey Congressman Rob Andrews.

If Corzine stays in the Senate and runs for re-election in two years, he'll win easily.

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

[Keystone Phil]

How about Mass?  Is Kennedy going to run again?  I remember him saying in 1994 that he wasn't going to run again.  Guess his word is good as gold :-).  This could be a competitive race if he retires, especially if Weld makes another run for the Senate.

Romney for Senate!

He wouldn't win

It would be nice to see him get maybe 46-47% of the vote though.

And if he's going against someone like Ben Affleck, he can win.

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

I don't mean to bust on KeystonePhil, but I wish all Republicans had his mentality and cockiness.  He must think the GOP is going to invade certain areas.  He also thinks PA is a solidly conservative state.  I know PA is far from a liberal state, but it is nowhere near as right a KP would think. 

IrishDem, once again, I love how you tell me how I think. I have stated that PA is a conservative state. We're no Utah, we're no Wyoming. However, you're the one saying we're a "centrist" state. Sorry to bust on you, IrishDem, but I don't think you know what you're talking about. I'm sixteen but I know my stuff.

[Keystone Phil]

It would be nice to see him get maybe 46-47% of the vote though.

And if he's going against someone like Ben Affleck, he can win.

No, Ben Affleck would win (he'd get like 78% of the woman vote) but Romney could approach 45-47%.

Against a 'real' candidate liek Barney Frank, He probably would get 42-45%.

Massachusetts hasn't sent a Democrat to the senate since (Insert First name here) Brooke retired, and he was a liberal.  Only Bill Weld, who I don't think even lives in MA anymore, would have a chance.

Going against Ben Affleck, Romney would have a pretty good chance. But let's say Affleck wins. It would be nice to see the seat that Ted Kennedy once held almost go GOP.

As for your final statement, you said MA hasn't sent a Dem to the Senate since Edward Brooke. Don't you mean MA hasn't sent a Republican since then?

As for Bill Weld, yes he would have a chance but he doesn't reside in MA.

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

Instead of keeping to a mature debate, the Dems have to stoop to personal attacks. How low. Can't say I didn't expect it, though.

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

I don't mean to bust on KeystonePhil, but I wish all Republicans had his mentality and cockiness.  He must think the GOP is going to invade certain areas.  He also thinks PA is a solidly conservative state.  I know PA is far from a liberal state, but it is nowhere near as right a KP would think. 

IrishDem, once again, I love how you tell me how I think. I have stated that PA is a conservative state. We're no Utah, we're no Wyoming. However, you're the one saying we're a "centrist" state. Sorry to bust on you, IrishDem, but I don't think you know what you're talking about. I'm sixteen but I know my stuff.

51-49 for Kerry, pretty split, that sounds centrist to me. And the fact that Kerry won by itself means the state isn't conservative.

Arguing with you really is pointless. I have said before that this state is very partisan when it comes to Presidential races. However, this is a conservative state and that can be seen in a number of other races here in the Keystone state.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

Instead of keeping to a mature debate, the Dems have to stoop to personal attacks. How low. Can't say I didn't expect it, though.

Get your drivers license yet?

Once you can tell me the relevance of that question to this debate, I'll answer. Otherwise, I suggest you start looking up better ways to debate candidates instead of the "Paterno is fat!" lines.

[Keystone Phil]

As for the poll, I'd say moderate.

Well I disagree. I think if you ask some of the PA Dems on the forum they'd even agree that PA is a conservative state.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

Actually you didn't address the point I made. This just in: Just because there are more Dems than Republicans doesn't mean more people in PA are liberal. Guess what? Kentucky has a higher Dem registration than Republican. Think they are liberal?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

You have to ask some of the conservative Dems why they stay Dem, BRTD. I obviously don't have the answer to that question.

My position on this will stay the same: More people in the state of Pennsylvania identify themselves as conservative as opposed to being moderate or liberal. You disagree? Fine. We have a difference of opinion and I doubt it will change.

[Keystone Phil]

gave a 20 yr State House incumbent a near heart attack. 

Kenney had a near heart attack? IrishDem, I don't think you understand. Every election the Dems target Kenney and make their candidate seem like the best thing the PA Democratic party has ever produced. In the end, Kenney wins and usually wins big. He never took Boyle seriously and never really worried about losing his seat. Boyle might be a great candidate when the seat opens but in all honestly, he's not a candidate that scared Kenney at all.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

Actually you didn't address the point I made. This just in: Just because there are more Dems than Republicans doesn't mean more people in PA are liberal. Guess what? Kentucky has a higher Dem registration than Republican. Think they are liberal?

That's NOT my point. You said PA is Democratic by a small margin. You didn't check up on your facts.

Ok well maybe it's not a small margin. But it's kind of embarrassing for you guys that with an advantage you can't win back the State House or State Senate or the State AG post or either of the two U.S. Senate seats or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

[Keystone Phil]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

[Keystone Phil]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

My point was with the advantage the Dems have they were never able to overcome the GOP advantage in the delegation no matter how small it was.

[Keystone Phil]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

My point was with the advantage the Dems have they were never able to overcome the GOP advantage in the delegation no matter how small it was.

After the '98 election the Dems had (IIRC) a one seat advantage in PA.

You're right. I stand corrected. It didn't last very long though.

[Keystone Phil]

You're right. I stand corrected. It didn't last very long though.

Isn't it amazing how quickly PA takes over threads? Oh well. Local stuff is usually interesting.
Any amusing scandels in Philly recently?

I doubt anything can beat "the scaffolding needs to be restored"

Some of our Mayor's closest political allies and friends are being indicted. During the 2003 Mayoral election, his office was bugged. He spun the news against the Republicans and cruised to re-election. The Republican, Sam Katz, was going to win, too. Even IrishDem voted for the Republican in that election! The scandal continues to make news these days but it's not that big of a story anymore. However, if the Mayor gets indicted (which some believe will happen) expect to hear about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Philly is still in a better shape than Camden ;-)

Yeah that's always a plus.

[Keystone Phil]

Philly is still in a better shape than Camden ;-)

Yeah that's always a plus.

Who will it be for Mayor?

Dems:

Jon Saidel
Michael Nutter
Blondell Reynolds Brown
Janine Blackwell
Johnny Dougherty

Reps:

Frank Rizzo Jr.
Brian O'Neill
Jack Kelly

Too early to tell who the nominees will be. I think your list for possible candidates is pretty good with one exception: Jack Kelly won't run for Mayor or even consider it.

A few comments on the race: Saidel has a great shot at the nomination but Johnny Doc will have strong union backing. I think Blackwell would like to be Mayor but it just won't work out for her in the primary if she's going up against people like Doc and Saidel.

As for the Republicans, like I said Kelly won't run. I'm not sure about O'Neill. People keep bringing him up but in my opinion he wouldn't be a good Mayoral candidate. That being said, my opinion of an O'Neill candidacy doesn't control whether or not it happens. Rizzo was hinting at running as a Dem but it seems like that talk had died down. He'll run as a Republican and be the favorite for the nomination. However, it's still too early to tell the nominees of each party. If I had to take a guess, I'd say Doc vs. Rizzo.