Senate Races 2006.

[TeePee4Prez]

Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.

I don't agree with that.  Remember that pro-life Dem that ran against Sanotrum in 2000?  Ron Klink.  HE LOST!  Only Joe Hoeffel or Chris Heinz can win this seat.  Considering Specter had the AFL-CIO support, it was difficult for Hoeffel to muster anything this time.  They will definitely not back Santorum.  Also, the socially liberal SE suburbs will not vote for him like they did in 2000.

[TeePee4Prez]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

[TeePee4Prez]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

I don't mean to bust on KeystonePhil, but I wish all Republicans had his mentality and cockiness.  He must think the GOP is going to invade certain areas.  He also thinks PA is a solidly conservative state.  I know PA is far from a liberal state, but it is nowhere near as right a KP would think. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Dan I agree.  Montgomery County is getting drastically more liberal and that's a huge county.  In 1988 Ronald Reagan praised them for having one of the best Republican organizations in the country.  That was more of a eulogy.  Also, judging from the results of this past election even Northeast Philly which is relatively conservative compared to the rest of the city turned out for the Dems and gave a 20 yr State House incumbent a near heart attack.  You also have to consider Lois Murphy very narrowly lost to incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach in PA-6.  Rest assure PA-6 and PA-8 will be challenged for years to come as will PA-7 when Curt Weldon retires. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

PA overall is by a very slight margin a socially conservative state. It IS changing. Just look at one of the few growth areas of the state, the Philly suburbs which are becoming more liberal. Western PA is turning more Republican, but that part of the state is declining in population.

On the compass I'd say:

Economic: -2.50
Social: +1.50

[TeePee4Prez]

Philly is still in a better shape than Camden ;-)

Yeah that's always a plus.

Who will it be for Mayor?

Dems:

Jon Saidel
Michael Nutter
Blondell Reynolds Brown
Janine Blackwell
Johnny Dougherty

Reps:

Frank Rizzo Jr.
Brian O'Neill
Jack Kelly