Review of Preseason Polls time! Some of the worst picks singled out.
American: 1A. Houston 1B. Memphis 3. Cincinnati 4. Wichita State 5. USF 6. UConn 7. Temple 8. SMU 9. UCF 10. Tulsa 11. ECU 12. Tulane - Three very serious Final Four contenders and a highly thought of team returning to prominence in Wichita. Each of the next three will have their chances to make their case, but I think this will ultimately be top-heavy.
TULSA got no respect! In such a weak conference. The most unlikely of champions! The analytics still like Houston; Memphis was harmed by eligibility. Cincinnati's coaching change went far from seamlessly early on.
Atlantic 10: 1. VCU 2. Davidson 3. Dayton 4. Rhode Island 5. St. Bonnies 6. Richmond 7. Saint Louis 8. Duquesne 9. George Mason 10. La Salle 11. UMass 12. George Washington 13. St. Joseph's 14. Fordham
VCU LOL.
Davidson playing to their true potential all season long would probably make this look OK, but they are predicting results not final talent. Move those two behind Duquesne, and we wouldn't feel like idiots.
ACC: 1. Duke 2. UNC 3. Louisville 4. Virginia 5. Florida State 6. NC State 7. Notre Dame 8. Syracuse 9. Miami 10. Pitt 11. Clemson 12. Georgia Tech 13. Boston College 14. Virginia Tech 15. Wake Forest - Three very serious national title contenders and two ol' reliable teams. The depth of this conference will rely on the next three because the expectations are very low for the bottom half. I am glad the media is hyping Notre Dame's return, but I definitely have some question marks there.
UNC is going to be dead last, which is public knowledge. But just as bad is
Georgia Tech pulling out a sneaky fifth place finish despite being ineligible for postseason play and picked 12th. Just Pastner's luck...
Big East: 1. Seton Hall 2. Villanova 3. Xavier 4. Marquette 5. Providence 6. Georgetown 7. Creighton 8. Butler 9. St. John's 10. DePaul - Seven contenders hope to get at least six bids and perhaps some wins to improve on last year's epic disappointments.
It's not an awful pick because the conference just wound up being much better than expected, but
Creighton in 7th and potentially winning the conference today (or at least third place) is a big miss. Butler is also a miss given that they are fighting for a four seed in the NCAA Tournament but as not far off from the final conference placement.
Big Ten: 1. Michigan State 2. Maryland 3. Ohio State 4. Purdue 5. Michigan 6. Wisconsin 7. Illinois 8. Iowa 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. Minnesota 12. Rutgers 13. Nebraska 14. Northwestern - My spring forecast flipped Minnesota and Wisconsin - I know Wisconsin tends to find hidden gems, but the loss of Happ is enormous - and slotted Iowa four slots higher. I pegged it as an eight bid league at the time, which feels slightly high. I think Illinois can get it done. I am less certain that Penn State is capable should the Illini fail.
Purdue is really the worst you can fault here if they finish 10th by losing to Rutgers today. We expected the conference to be deep, and it was deeper than ever thought possible. I am more embarrassed by my own preseason love for Minnesota and failing to believe in co-champion Wisconsin. So bundled that the coaches picks are largely right.
Colonial: 1. Hofstra 2. Charleston 3. Northeastern 4. James Madison 5. Delaware - Hofstra loses their star and plays perhaps too light a schedule. Every game is winnable including UCLA, but I think everyone will take multiple lumps in conference play to prevent an at-large. I see a new winner this year.
I can't fault them given the depth, but leaving
Wiliam & Mary out of the top five looks rough in hindsight when
JAMES MADISON (2-16) got included. I will accept my accolades on UCLA being ripe for Hofstra's picking, but I deny that I ever said a new (regular season) champion would arise this season.
C-USA: 1. WKU 2. UTSA 3. Louisiana Tech 4A. UTEP 4B. Old Dominion 6. UAB ---- UTEP returns?! KenPom loves them too. I've awaited this for so long! But the story will be if WKU can compete with higher rated Cincinnati, Arkansas, Belmont and URI in order to build a bubbly resume.
I will not criticize the UTEP pick given that there were chemistry and discipline issues that prevented greatness, but they are tied for 10th with
UTSA, which I never understood!
North Texas wound up being the good Texas team!! (At least they knew Rice would be bad.)
Charlotte also shocked us by being back ahead of schedule.
MAAC: 1. Iona 2. Rider 3. Quinnipiac 4. Monmouth 5. Manhattan 6. Siena - Really hoping this will be Baker Dunleavy's breakout season at QU! He is surrounded by all the traditional powers (save Niagara) plus recent breakout program, Rider though the coaches see this as a two horse race.
No respect for ultimate champion
Siena and even less respect for
St. Peter's who finished a close second.
Iona was down in sixth. They picked the wrong traditional programs in first and sixth!
MVC: 1. Missouri State 2. Bradley 3. UNI 4. Loyola (IL) - The Ramblers did bring in a nationally ranked recruiting class but will be very young.
Naturally
Missouri State, the sixth seed, will probably be in the MVC championship. I think they are talented but just underperformed and that the other three are clearly the cream of the crop.
Patriot: 1. Colgate 2. Bucknell 3. American - Second place may be the most interesting race to watch. Colgate got a national AP vote, and it wasn't an accident!!
Bucknell was awful finishing seventh but naturally beat American to reach the PL Semifinals. Watch them reach the finale....
Pac-12: 1. Oregon 2. Colorado 3. Washington 4. Arizona 5. USC 6. Arizona State 7. Oregon State 8. UCLA 9. Utah 10. Stanford 11. Washington State 12. Cal - Has the turnaround year finally arrived?! The hype says the same thing as I said for the Big 12 - Seven contenders fighting for about five bids though I remain slightly skeptical of Colorado's miraculous growth this quickly.
UCLA, picked eight, goes for the conference title tonight. No criticizing Washington due to the ineligibility of Quade Green. Was expecting Arizona to be an underperformer but they came out right on target. Stanford barely overperformed (similar to Oklahoma).
Southland: 1. New Orleans 2. Sam Houston State 3. Abilene Christian 4. Stephen F. Austin
Perhaps the worst conference pick of all is...drumroll please...
New Orleans which enters the day tied for 12th!!!!! Nicholls eventually joined the others in the top four and Stephen F. Austin ran away with it.
Sun Belt: 1. South Alabama 2. Georgia Southern 3. Texas-Arlington (average of three media polls)
South Alabama was a really good pick, but a complete WHIFF on
Little Rock which was largely picked 11th/12th. This surpasses Tulsa for the most impressive overperformance and may even surpass New Orleans for most spectacular overall miss as well.
Fewer complaints on the below conferences:
America East: 1. Vermont 2. UMBC 3. Stony Brook 4. Albany - Vermont is a heavy favourite but is not expected to compete for an at-large.
A-Sun: 1. Liberty 2. North Florida 3. Florida Gulf Coast
Big Sky (Coaches): 1. EWU 2. Montana 3. Weber State - The media picked EWU third.
Big 12: 1. Kansas 2. Baylor 3. Texas Tech 4. Texas 5. West Virginia 6. Oklahoma State 7. Iowa State 8. Oklahoma 9. Kansas State 10. TCU - not my expertise, but is it possible to be underrated Chris Beard still? Baylor has a bit to replace. Top seven could all contend, but likely down to a five bid year.
Big West: 1. UC-Irvine 2. UC-Santa Barbara 3. Cal State-Northridge 4. Hawaii
Horizon: 1. Wright State 2. NKU 3. UIC 4. Oakland 5. Green Bay
Ivy: 1. Harvard 2. Penn 3. Yale 4. Princeton - I think they got this right, and I don't think #1 will be particularly close - the Orlando Invitational will be fun to compete against other bubble teams, but I don't think Harvard will leave any doubt. Watch out for Gabe Stefanini and Columbia who could stealthily push for second/third and a coveted spot in Ivy Madness in Cambridge.
MEAC: 1. NC Central 2. Bethune-Cookman 3A. Norfolk State 3B. North Carolina A+T - one of the closest votes!
MWC: 1. Utah State 2. San Diego State 3. New Mexico 4. Nevada 5. Boise State - While most feel Utah State is solidly in, SDSU and New Mexico could spend all season long on the bubble if the hype is actually for real this time. Nevada could fight for a spot but nearly fell behind Boise in the poll, so expectations do not involve a return to the Big Dance.
NEC: 1. LIU-Brooklyn 2. Sacred Heart 3. St. Francis (PA) -
RMU picked fifth. You could almost reverse the order of these teams!OVC: 1. Belmont 2. Murray State 3. Jacksonville State 4. Austin Peay 5. UT-Martin - Belmont had a bit of trouble scheduling tough this year but has road trips to BC, Alabama, Saint Louis and WKU plus their home and home with Lipscomb, but this team is every bit as legit as last year's team. Murray and JSU will certainly continue giving them fits so put them on bubble watch immediately!
SEC: 1. Kentucky 2. Florida 3. LSU 4. Auburn 5. Tennessee 6. Alabama 7. Mississippi State 8. Ole Miss 9. Georgia 10. South Carolina 11. Arkansas 12. Texas A&M 13. Mizzou 14. Vanderbilt - The SEC is so deep that no team would truly surprise me by making the Tournament, and they may push for 8 bids. Isn't Georgia criminally underrated though? No respect for Tom Crean!
SoCon: 1. ETSU 2. UNC-Greensboro 3. Furman 4. Wofford
SWAC: 1. Prairie View A&M 2. Texas Southern 3. Grambling State 4. Alabama State
Summit: 1. North Dakota State 2. South Dakota 3. Oral Roberts 4. Omaha 5. South Dakota State
WCC: 1. Gonzaga 2. St. Mary's 3. BYU 4. Pepperdine 5. Santa Clara - I think we all know how this conference goes by now
WAC: 1. New Mexico State 2. Grand Canyon 3. Seattle
I will defend my Columbia (1-13) comment by saying that Gabe Stefanini had a season ending injury before the season even began. Yes, one player made that much difference
Mike Smith couldn't do it alone.
I have no excuse for criticizing the media for having Georgia too low. I will never bet on Tom Crean again. Anthony Edwards was great fun to watch.
This is all in jest, and I do think the coaches did better than me, but more reason to let the games be played.
