When will Texas become a swing state?

[Mechaman]

When will Texas become a swing state?

… 2012.

That is so comically bad, it's going in the Hackery Goldmine.

In 2006, wouldn't have most people laughed off the idea that Obama is going to win Virginia and Indiana only two years later?

At this point, I certainly wouldn't bet a dime on Texas going Democratic in '12. I'm just saying that things sometimes change rather quickly and dramatic.

I have to agree with Old Europe on this one.  I mean if the internet existed in 1982 how many of us would take predictions that Reagan would win Rhode Island without the presence of a strong third party candidate seriously?

[Mechaman]

Texas is an interesting state to look at. I have many things to say about it

1. There seems to be an imaginary line between Baptist and Catholics. I would say it is the 31st parallel which runs through Round Rock. If the area south of Round Rock was a state, Obama would probably get 50-52 percent. The reason Obama did well in those areas is because of the amount of Catholics there who tend to be more democratic. If the area north of Round Rock was a state, McCain wins about 61 percent. Baptists, on the other hand, tend to be a lot more republican than Catholics.

2. There is a strange phenomenon between rural and urban. Jimmy Carter won Texas by 3-4 points in 1976, but lost Harris County by 5 points and Dallas County by 13-14 points. He made up for it by getting over 60 percent in many of the rural counties. The situation is different now. Obama won Dallas County by 15 points and Harris by 2 points, but struggled to get 35 or even 30 percent in many of the rural areas.

3. Texas is the Republican equivalent of Vermont. Vermont is a state that used to be solidly republican and Texas used to be solidly democrat. But there was something that caused Vermont to turn democratic, just as there was something that turned Texas republican. In that case, Texas is a reactionary conservative state just as Vermont is a reactionary liberal state.

4. Most of the suburban counties (like Collin County) are off limits. People in Plano or Frisco make people in Orange County look liberal. But there are a few suburban areas where democrats will eventually win. Fort Bend County is very diverse with many whites, blacks (especially in Missouri City), Hispanics, and Asians/Indians. Obama and White lost it by less than 5 percent and will be the first suburban county to go Democrat. Hays and Williamson are both surrounded by Austin. Williamson may be a little harder to turn democrat, but Hays I can see turning democrat by the end of the decade. It was Kerry's best suburban county in 04.

Great analysis.
Welcome to the forum (granted it's your 54th post but I am pretty ignorant when it comes to meeting newbs).