When will Texas become a swing state?

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Also (to Vepres), the multi-generation Hispanic statistics are heavily skewed by Puerto Ricans and Cubans, who make up the majority of multi-generation Hispanics in the country but are much less represented among immigrants, or in Texas. Such numbers are pretty much useless. Furthermore, turnout among immigrant Hispanics is so dreadful that, even if their Democratic tendencies decline with the generations, the Democrats benefit from more generations passing because the voting rate increases (not to mention children of illegal immigrants, the latter of which don't vote at all and make up a solid chunk of the population of Texas).

Still, I do think Hispanics will become a swing group, as Dgov said well:

You seem to be forgetting a key point here--Hispanics are ceasing to be an immigrant community in the United States.  There are more Hispanics in Texas than there are in Mexico who want to move to the United States (according to Gallup), and the "Hispanic Baby Boom" is starting to take hold.  They are gradually moving into suburban communities and up the income ladder.

So basically the second and third generations are starting to dominate the Hispanic society, and those voters tend to be Socially and Fiscally more in line with Republicans than with Democrats.  Take a look at the voting patterns of the immigrants from the late 1800s--they started out overwhelmingly Democrat when they were immigrant and poor, and now Lean Republican once they've moved up the income ladder and out to the suburbs.  Remember when the Democrats used to get ~80% of the Catholic vote?

Hispanics already are a swing constituency. This is why pissing them off will cost the Republicans big time. Of course that is assuming Republicans continue their assault on Hispanics. This new push to end birthright citizenship is an excellent example. This might help in the short run but will backfire in the medium to long run.

[Sbane]

Not very likely for a few decades to come if that. California has a greater chance of going red before Texas does. The Republican Party has a grip on the state. Democrats are in such bad shape there that they haven't won anything statewide since 1994, face being in the minority in the state legislature, and are below 10 congressional seats in the state. Not only that, but the Republican party there has had a somewhat successful outreach to minorities (Ortiz wouldn't have gone down if Republicans there hadn't gotten enough Hispanics to vote for Farenthold.)

Can't you say the same thing about the condition of California Republicans? They have more congressional seats than Texas Democrats but that's only due to gerrymandering. If Democrats could have gerrymandered California, the number of Republicans left would have been in the single digits. Actually the Republicans could even lose a seat or two after fair redistricting.

The reason why Texas is trending Democratic is due to a growing Latino electorate and increased migration from blue states. And why California won't trend Republican is also due to Latinos as well as Asians. In addition blue collar whites are leaving the state due to a higher cost of living. So I don't know what your pronouncement that California is more likely to vote Republican than Texas is for the Democrats is based on.

   

[Sbane]

It all depends on how these migrants from the other states vote? I know everyone is assuming they will vote 70-30 Republican, but what is that based on? Most people don't have the choice of moving where they want. I don't see why migrants from blue states wouldn't vote accordingly.

[Sbane]

It all depends on how these migrants from the other states vote? I know everyone is assuming they will vote 70-30 Republican, but what is that based on? Most people don't have the choice of moving where they want. I don't see why migrants from blue states wouldn't vote accordingly.

Wouldn't  conventional wisdom be for Republicans to be the first to leave a D-dominated state for Texas?

If people are moving by their own choice, then of course yes. IMO a lot of people are moving because they are losing their jobs here, and are finding new ones in Texas. People who move to Arizona from here are much more Republican.

[Sbane]

If people are moving by their own choice, then of course yes. IMO a lot of people are moving because they are losing their jobs here, and are finding new ones in Texas. People who move to Arizona from here are much more Republican.

Here's to hoping they realize there's a correlation between "Is a Small Government State" and "Has jobs".

Right...lower costs of living/pay don't have anything to do with it.

[Sbane]

If people are moving by their own choice, then of course yes. IMO a lot of people are moving because they are losing their jobs here, and are finding new ones in Texas. People who move to Arizona from here are much more Republican.

Here's to hoping they realize there's a correlation between "Is a Small Government State" and "Has jobs".

Right...lower costs of living/pay don't have anything to do with it.

Of course, which is why states like Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Iowa (which all have roughly the same cost of living) are all experiencing large economic booms and population influxes comparable to Texas.

Indiana is an interesting addition on to the list, wouldn't you say? It detracts from the point I think you are trying to make.

If you are trying to say that the Midwest is shrinking even in spite of low costs of living due to the gutting of manufacturing in America, then I would agree with you.

[Sbane]

If people are moving by their own choice, then of course yes. IMO a lot of people are moving because they are losing their jobs here, and are finding new ones in Texas. People who move to Arizona from here are much more Republican.

Here's to hoping they realize there's a correlation between "Is a Small Government State" and "Has jobs".

Right...lower costs of living/pay don't have anything to do with it.

Of course, which is why states like Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Iowa (which all have roughly the same cost of living) are all experiencing large economic booms and population influxes comparable to Texas.

Indiana is an interesting addition on to the list, wouldn't you say? It detracts from the point I think you are trying to make.

If you are trying to say that the Midwest is shrinking even in spite of low costs of living due to the gutting of manufacturing in America, then I would agree with you.

Manufacturing output hasn't really been gutted. Just the labor previously employed.

Sure that may be the case. It still leads to high unemployment and doesn't detract from my point though.