WV-Rasmussen: Manchin still leads by double digits

[Tender Branson]

Manchin: 51%
Raese: 35%

Link

[Хahar 🤔]

Not much to see here. Safe D.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean D.

[You kip if you want to...]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe D.

[SvenssonRS]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe Tilt D.

[xavier110]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe Tilt Very Very Likely D.

[SvenssonRS]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe Tilt Very Very Likely D Tossup.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe Tilt Very Very Likely D Tossup Super duper Likely D.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Manchin has a strong lead, but his opponent has no name recognition. There's room for movement, and in 2010, I wouldn't be taking any race for granted.

Especially in West Virginia, one of Obama's worst states.

[tpfkaw]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe Tilt Very Very Likely D Tossup Super duper Likely D Safe L.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchurin won his statewide office with 70% of the vote and I don't think he is untouchable but he is favored in this race.  I think local politics trump how Obama performed in the state just like in GA, Barnes is close to the GOP and Obama didn't perform there either. It's how each candidate is viewed not respective how Obama performed.

[Franzl]

Very likely that Manchin will win.....but not a certainty.

[Dan the Roman]

Manchin has a strong lead, but his opponent has no name recognition. There's room for movement, and in 2010, I wouldn't be taking any race for granted.

Especially in West Virginia, one of Obama's worst states.

Not quite true that Raese is unknown. He almost won the senate race in 1984, was Chairman of the State GOP, ran for Governor in 1998 losing the primary to Arch Moore 53-47, and ran against Byrd in 2006 where he spent 3 million and got crushed with 34%. So I would not say he is unknown.

And he carries a lot of baggage, including mutual loathing with the Capito-wing of the party, who will not lift a finger for him. And a ton of very nasty negative ads effectively from 2006 attacking Byrd over his position opposing the decision to authorize the use of force in Iraq and calling him corrupt which can be replayed by the Manchin campaign.

There are a lot of similarities between here and PA-12. If the election is about Obama, then the GOP has a chance. If the election is about Byrd and how much national conservatives loathed him, it will backfire horribly just as the attacks on Murtha backfired in favor of Critz. And Manchin is a lot stronger than Critz.

Therefore, the GOP may well have shot themselves in the foot by getting the candidate most likely to make the race about Byrd rather than Obama, by nominating someone who ran a slash and burn campaign against him in 2006. It would be the equivalent of nominating Russell in PA-12.

It should be noted that Scott Brown by contrast, made his race about the future, and only mentioned Senator Kennedy positively and of course ran the ad comparing himself to JFK. That defused the nostalgia effect.

[timmer123]

Not much to see here. Safe D.

Not a "Safe D" by any stretch of the imagination.

Manchin under-performs his own approval rating by a whopping 20 from the same respondents.  I would expect him to start out in the lead, as he is well known and well liked.  The Republican is rather unknown at the moment. 

Expect Obama extreme unpopularity in the state to be a major drag on Manchin.  This will become highly competitive.

[Lunar]

Manchin under-performs his own approval rating by a whopping 20 from the same respondents.

I mean, that just tells you that the undecideds know & like the guy already, which tells you a lot about where the race is going to end up.

I don't think under-performing your approval ratings by a "whopping" 20 percent is really much to be concerned about when you're at 51% already.  It's more of a sign of strength than weakness.  He's not going to win with 70% of the vote, of course, but to have 70% of the electorate like you & approve of the job you're doing...it's a sign of strength and you're spinning it as a sign of weakness with that word "whopping" in there.

[Meeker]

Manchurin won his statewide office with 70% of the vote and I don't think he is untouchable but he is favored in this race.  I think local politics trump how Obama performed in the state just like in GA, Barnes is close to the GOP and Obama didn't perform there either. It's how each candidate is viewed not respective how Obama performed.

Err, Obama did rather well in Georgia.

[Lunar]

The fact that Manchin's opponent has money to burn will be interesting -- as Manchin does not.  So the compressed schedule makes it harder for Manchin to perform at a parity in funds, but it also makes it harder for his opponent to both define himself and have enough time to tear down that 70% approval number.

Yeah, I see some odd arguments made in this thread, as Meeker, Dan & myself have noted.

We'll know how much money everyone is burning by how many ads they run in the D.C. media market where all the reporters are.  If you see Ben Smith talking about seeing Manchin ads on TV, we'll know Manchin is doing alright in money. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd think advertising in the expensive DC media market would be a bit of a waste:

[Lunar]

I'd think advertising in the expensive DC media market would be a bit of a waste:

Oh, I know.

It's how D.C. reporters are routinely reminded how loaded Rockefeller is

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raese is a piss poor candidate. Is he really all they could find?

[Meeker]

Raese is a piss poor candidate. Is he really all they could find?

Well there are actually ten Republicans running so they did find some other folks. But he appears to be their strongest.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Not much to see here. Safe Lean Safe Tilt Very Very Likely D Tossup Super duper Likely D Safe L. Landslide D

[redcommander]

Why did Capito have to fricken well bail on the race? Unbelievable, it is safe dem. Raese isn't going to Manchin. Republicans would be best served spending money elsewhere and hope to pick up the seat in 2012.

[Badger]

Why did Capito have to fricken well bail on the race? Unbelievable, it is safe dem. Raese isn't going to Manchin. Republicans would be best served spending money elsewhere and hope to pick up the seat in 2012.

If they don't get it this year, they sure as hell aren't going to when Manchin is running as an incumbent in 2012, notwithstanding the GOP presidential candidate winning by 10-12 points (or 20 for that matter).