1980: Ted Kennedy/Dale Bumpers vs Bob Dole/George Bush

[Sasquatch]

In November 1976 Gerald Ford wins over Jimmy Carter. The state of Ohio and Mississippi were able to push Ford over the top in one of the closest presidential elections in history. The victory would soon be a distant memory as Ford's term would be plagued by high energy prices and stagflation.


Republican Primary: Ronald Reagan had been the early favorite, but suprised everyone by not running. The press would later find out that he had been diagnosed with Alzheimers. Vice President Bob Dole went toe-to-toe with George H.W. Bush, but in the end the Vice President sealed up the nomination. At the convention Bob Dole chose his primary rival to be his running mate.

Democratic Primary: As soon as Ted Kennedy announced he was running, he had all but wrapped up the nomination. Jerry Brown and Walter Mondale didn't put up much of a fight and Kennedy had a head start on the fall campaign as Dole and Bush fought it out. At the convention Kennedy made a very memorable acceptance speech and Sen. Dale Bumpers was chosen as VP to balance out the ticket.

John Anderson had made threats about running as an independent, but chose not to when it was all said and done.


Who wins and what does the map look like?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

The Killer of Chappaquiddick would be unelectable.

511-27

[Thomas D]

Let's see. Dole is a war hero and Kennedy killed a woman. Dole 513-25

[hawkeye59]

323-215
After 12 years of Republican Presidents, the people would be ready for a change.

[Bo]

Does the Iranian revolution/hostage crisis still occur?

[Sasquatch]

Does the Iranian revolution/hostage crisis still occur?

Your call.

[Bo]

Dole wins 340-198. Despite the poor economy, Chapaquiddick would haunt Kennedy a lot. Also, I don't think the Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis would have occured under Ford since he (and Kissinger) would have been more supportive of the Shah than Carter. Thus unemployment and fuel prices in 1980 are lower than in RL (but inflation is still very high), and also Ford's popularity is higher without a hostage crisis. As a side note, I think a scandal-free Democrat would have beaten Dole in this scenario.

[Derek]

323-215
After 12 years of Republican Presidents, the people would be ready for a change.

Not the kind of change that crashes them into a river though.

[feeblepizza]

No chance that Kennedy the Killer wins, even if Jerry Ford's 2nd term was terrible

[Bo]

No chance that Kennedy the Killer wins, even if Jerry Ford's 2nd term was terrible

No way Ted Kennedy wins CA while losing the election.

[feeblepizza]

No chance that Kennedy the Killer wins, even if Jerry Ford's 2nd term was terrible

No way Ted Kennedy wins CA while losing the election.

Fixed.

[Dr. Cynic]

Chappaquidick killed Kennedy's Presidential aspirations.

Why not have Bumpers instead at the head of the ticket. Dale could've beaten Dole.

[Lincoln Republican]

Kennedy would probably show up drunk at the debate.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Chappaquidick killed Kennedy's Presidential aspirations.

Why not have Bumpers instead at the head of the ticket. Dale could've beaten Dole.

One problematic thing: Bumpers was up for re-election for Senate in 1980. Doubtful, he'd run for V.P.

Chappaquidick was a major problem, yet with nomination and after hard four years under Republican administration (as Ford term goes basically the same as Carter's) it's hard to imagine Republican winning, even if this would be narrower.

Also, one funny thing. While I understand politics, I never understoof Winfield hate toward Kennedy.

[Lincoln Republican]

Chappaquidick killed Kennedy's Presidential aspirations.

Why not have Bumpers instead at the head of the ticket. Dale could've beaten Dole.

One problematic thing: Bumpers was up for re-election for Senate in 1980. Doubtful, he'd run for V.P.

Chappaquidick was a major problem, yet with nomination and after hard four years under Republican administration (as Ford term goes basically the same as Carter's) it's hard to imagine Republican winning, even if this would be narrower.

Also, one funny thing. While I understand politics, I never understoof Winfield hate toward Kennedy.

Uh, calling Kennedy a drunk is worse than calling him a killer?

Your logic is misguided.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Chappaquidick killed Kennedy's Presidential aspirations.

Why not have Bumpers instead at the head of the ticket. Dale could've beaten Dole.

One problematic thing: Bumpers was up for re-election for Senate in 1980. Doubtful, he'd run for V.P.

Chappaquidick was a major problem, yet with nomination and after hard four years under Republican administration (as Ford term goes basically the same as Carter's) it's hard to imagine Republican winning, even if this would be narrower.

Also, one funny thing. While I understand politics, I never understood Winfield hate toward Kennedy.

Uh, calling Kennedy a drunk is worse than calling him a killer?

Your logic is misguided.

Actually I combined your previous statements.

Plus, I was just asking. No need to get nervous on

[Bo]

While the effect of Kennedy's "incident" would no doubt hurt him, and (I think) prevent him from being elected, i think it's being slightly overstated.

You have to remember, Kennedy won 10 states in the Democratic primary against Carter that year, not the least of which were NY and California. He also amassed 38% of the popular vote against Carter's 51%.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_1980

Also, it is EXTREMELY rare for a party to hold onto the White House for 4 consecutive elections. It hasn't been done since FDR, and I don't believe its ever happened before that.

Having said all that, I think Dole wins it, 51%-47%

Dole:  51%
Kennedy:  47%
Other: 2%

Dole: 318
Kennedy: 220

No way Ted Kennedy wins CA and NJ while losing the election. Also, the GOP managed to hold onto the WH for four terms between 1869 and 1885 and again between 1897 and 1913. Not to mention the Democratic-Republicans holding onto the White House for 24 years (6 terms) in a row.

[Bo]

I think this is purely subjective on your part. Why the hell can Kennedy not lose the election while still winning Ca and NJ? You don't have to go very far back in history for an example of this happening, ie, Kerry in 2004, Gore in 2000 both won California AND New Jersey, while losing the election.

And even more on point, Ford, in 1976, won California AND New Jersey, and still lost the election. Kennedy carried both states in the 1980 primaries. So again, I ask, where do you come up with your conclusion? You made it with such authority, but I think my conclusion is a bit more likely.

CA and NJ were much more Republican in the 1970s and early 1980s than they are now. Both states were more Republican than the national average back then. Thus, if the Republicans won the general election back then, then they were very likely to win CA and NJ. The reason Gore and Kerry won CA and NJ while losing was because those states were much more Democratic (relative to the national average) in the 2000s than they were back in the 1970s and 1980s. And just because Kennedy won the Democratic primaries in those states doesn't mean he would have won them in the general election. Obama won a lot of Democratic primaries in many states in 2008 that proceeded to vote for McCain in the general election that same year. Primary results are mostly irrelevant in determining whether a candidate will win that state in the general election or not.

[Bo]

Fair enough....we could probably continue this all night, but if you look at the 1976 election results, Carter came VERY close to winning both California and NJ from Ford. You could also argue that New England royalty (Kennedy) would be more appealing to both states than a peanut farmer (Carter). I understand that Carter suffered fairly severe losses in both states in 1980, but aren't we operating under the assumption that the economy wasnt as bad as real life, and that the hostage crisis never took place? If so, I don't think it's nearly as hard to see those 2 states going to Kennedy after 12 years of GOP rule as you do. 

I don't want to debate this all night as well, so let me just finish with a brief rebuttal. Carter still lost both states (despite them being very close) in 1976 despite winning the PV by 2%. Since your map has Kennedy losing the election, and Carter lost both states while winning the election, I really don't see Kennedy winning them. Also, keep in mind that Chapaquiddick would have hurt Kennedy a lot, and that probably removes any advantage Kennedy would have had in terms of profile or regional advantage. Also, if the economy is better than in RL and there is no hostage crisis, then that would help the GOP since they are the ones in power and people wouldn't feel too angry at them.