Erc
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,823
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« on: November 03, 2004, 07:27:09 PM » |
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The midterm elections are key for many of our prospective candidates...if Hillary loses to, say, Rudy in '06, her chances are getting the nomination are slim [as much as I might like to draw the 1858 IL Senate comparison].
Republican Candidates:
Rudy--especially if he takes Clinton's senate seat, he's a very strong possibility. However, his views are not in line with the base of the Republican party, which is doing the voting. However, since he is so universally loved, it will be hard for any other candidate to attack him, so it's going to take some expendable candidate to throw the first punch.
Pataki--will be up for re-election as governor in '06. (Nice, exciting election season for me in two years...). Whether he'll run for a fourth term (against Spitzer, presumably), or bow out in order to organize a campaign of his own, I can't say. But he's definitely making a bid for it. Again, like Rudy, he's a bit liberal in certain areas, which could hurt him. Not as liberal as Rudy, but I don't think he'll have enough support to take it. Possibly the Gephardt of 2008.
Frist--definitely making a run for it, but his voice is on par with Lincoln's and he's a cat-killer. I don't give him much of a chance.
Romney--looks more and more like he'll be making a run for it. Again, it depends on what happens to him in '06. He's likely to do well in New Hampshire (for reasons of propinquity). Perhaps a good compromise candidate.
McCain--very popular amongst independents--not so much among the Bush base. He'll have a strong showing if he chooses to run, but he will be older than Reagan by the time of his inauguration. Again, a solid candidate if he chooses to run.
Chuck Hagel--Eh, I don't think so.
Bill Owens--a nice, conservative Governor and Washington outsider. Depending on how things go the next four years, he could be a good candidate--if he can overcome the popularity gap that separates him from Rudy & McCain. Of course, he also has to win reelection in '06, but I doubt he'll have much of a problem.
Jeb Bush--has supposedly denied an interest in running, but you never know. Popular governor in a big swing state, attracts Hispanics--he's the perfect candidate, except for his last name. If he's going to have a shot, he needs to be able to separate himself from his brother and take advantage of the fact that he is actually articulate. Everyone I've talked to about Jeb says "Ugh. Another Bush???"--even though they know nothing about Jeb himself. Could have a better shot if Hillary appears to be the front-runner for the Dems. But he already has my vote.
Tommy Thompson--a bit of an unknown outside of Wisconsin, he could have a shot at it, depending on what he chooses to do in the '06 elections. An upper-midwest candidate would pretty much guarantee the Republicans the Little Three.
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