I will now accept my accolades
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Author Topic: I will now accept my accolades  (Read 284302 times)
The Vorlon
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« Reply #350 on: June 04, 2005, 01:28:37 PM »
Quote from: Harry on June 04, 2005, 12:17:04 PM
well I was happy until I saw this thread and read through it...

This thread points out why you so urgently need a good sense of humour and a great deal of humility in politics.

Polls are great, and the usually work....

But sometimes they just utterly blow up.

Just about all of us got little bits of Election 2004 wrong.

Sure I'll take a bow for having Bush up 4-6% in Florida pretty much the entire year.... I am also the guy who was pretty sure Minnesota was a dead heat... so we all screw up.... Smiley

If Kerry had won, somebody else would have taken this beating...

"So it goes".... Smiley
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DanimalBr
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« Reply #351 on: June 04, 2005, 04:20:25 PM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on June 04, 2005, 01:28:37 PM


This thread points out why you so urgently need a good sense of humour and a great deal of humility in politics.

Polls are great, and the usually work....

But sometimes they just utterly blow up.



Oh how true.   Allow me to illustrate what Vorlon is trying to say:
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #352 on: June 04, 2005, 04:46:59 PM »
I don't understand what all the concern on polls were with this race.

The polls of the last week of the campaign (esp. state polls) were for the most part dead-on, when you averaged them together.  As I continually thought long throughout the campaign, what few undecideds there were broke evenly.  That breakdown was what got Gallup in trouble and made Pew look so good.

Only those who trusted the exit polls got shelled (witness this thread).

Of the state polls in the battleground states, the average nailed Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, etc.

The only major screw-ups were Florida (towards Kerry), which is a state where you don't trust any polls anyway and 99 times out of 100 they oversample the Democrat; Wisconsin (towards Bush), where some interesting hijinks were going on anyway; and Hawaii, which just was because of lack of polling.

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#oh
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #353 on: June 04, 2005, 06:05:06 PM »
Quote from: Senator Sam Spade on June 04, 2005, 04:46:59 PM
I don't understand what all the concern on polls were with this race.

The polls of the last week of the campaign (esp. state polls) were for the most part dead-on, when you averaged them together.  As I continually thought long throughout the campaign, what few undecideds there were broke evenly.  That breakdown was what got Gallup in trouble and made Pew look so good.

Only those who trusted the exit polls got shelled (witness this thread).

Of the state polls in the battleground states, the average nailed Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, etc.

The only major screw-ups were Florida (towards Kerry), which is a state where you don't trust any polls anyway and 99 times out of 100 they oversample the Democrat; Wisconsin (towards Bush), where some interesting hijinks were going on anyway; and Hawaii, which just was because of lack of polling.

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#oh

You are correct....  You notice my "signature" picks on EXIT polling... Smiley

Other than Florida, which the polling consensus said was a dead heat, the Pollsters had a good year.  Even in Florida, Mason Dixon (the only poll you should ever trust coming out of Florida anyway) basically nailed it having Bush up 4% at the end.

Just about everything else the average of the polls was within a % or two of the final result...
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A18
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« Reply #354 on: June 04, 2005, 06:44:26 PM »
Hey Vorlon. You might want to check that text by your avatar in that profile of yours.
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Alcon
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« Reply #355 on: June 04, 2005, 09:38:29 PM »
Quote from: Monopolization on June 04, 2005, 06:44:26 PM
Hey Vorlon. You might want to check that text by your avatar in that profile of yours.

Huh?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #356 on: June 06, 2005, 09:21:45 PM »
Quote from: Monopolization on June 04, 2005, 06:44:26 PM
Hey Vorlon. You might want to check that text by your avatar in that profile of yours.

"I will live my life for no other"

A quote somewhat in vogue among libertarians.  Some author who wrote a book about railroads if I recall.

Smiley
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A18
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« Reply #357 on: June 06, 2005, 10:04:58 PM »
That's not what the text says:

"It will live my life for no other. "

What a ringing endorsement of big government! Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #358 on: June 08, 2005, 08:37:22 PM »
Quote from: Monopolization on June 06, 2005, 10:04:58 PM
That's not what the text says:

"It will live my life for no other. "

What a ringing endorsement of big government! Smiley

damn typos!

Thanks for noticing... !
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King
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« Reply #359 on: July 03, 2005, 12:40:27 AM »
Quote from: mypalfish on November 02, 2004, 03:04:19 PM
I tried to tell you what was going on.  I really tried.  This looks like a landslide, folks.

Famous last words of a fool.
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Erc
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« Reply #360 on: July 03, 2005, 02:04:56 AM »
This thread really depressed me on Nov. 2...

I had just heard about the exit polls, I come on here, I see this...I think I had to go take a nap just so I wouldn't have to think about it for the three hours until the results started coming in.

But the sheer enjoyment of seeing this thread of Nov 3 made it all worth it.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #361 on: July 03, 2005, 02:09:47 AM »
The gift that just keeps on giving.
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J. J.
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« Reply #362 on: August 07, 2005, 05:43:13 PM »
Bump, to spread the mirth!  :-)
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Rococo4
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« Reply #363 on: August 21, 2005, 09:58:12 PM »
never gets old
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StatesRights
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« Reply #364 on: August 22, 2005, 12:39:56 AM »

Hey Roc! Glad to see you're still around. Smiley
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ATFFL
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« Reply #365 on: August 22, 2005, 02:22:32 AM »
Why was this unstickied?  I pop in once a month for a good chuckle.
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J. J.
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« Reply #366 on: September 11, 2005, 05:12:23 PM »
Yes, this needs to be a sticky.  Mypalfish swan past in August, proving the old adage, "Don't count you fish before they are fried."  ;-)
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #367 on: September 20, 2005, 12:52:28 AM »
sticky again.. Smiley
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ATFFL
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« Reply #368 on: September 21, 2005, 03:37:03 PM »

Good man.
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Max Power
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« Reply #369 on: September 21, 2005, 06:07:12 PM »
This isn't funny anymore. The guy made a prediction, admitted he was wrong, and has been mocked for almost 30 pages.
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muon2
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« Reply #370 on: September 27, 2005, 06:53:28 AM »
Quote from: Judge Max Power on September 21, 2005, 06:07:12 PM
This isn't funny anymore. The guy made a prediction, admitted he was wrong, and has been mocked for almost 30 pages.

Some may not find it funny, but I think many will. The Chicago Tribune is still mocked for a similar gaffe when they published their famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline in 1948.
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Jake
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« Reply #371 on: September 27, 2005, 05:28:07 PM »
The guy called the election, he did not merely predict an outcome. He stated that it was over on the basis of some midday exit polls. It is still incredibly funny.
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Max Power
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« Reply #372 on: September 27, 2005, 07:07:16 PM »
Quote from: muon2 on September 27, 2005, 06:53:28 AM
Quote from: Judge Max Power on September 21, 2005, 06:07:12 PM
This isn't funny anymore. The guy made a prediction, admitted he was wrong, and has been mocked for almost 30 pages.

Some may not find it funny, but I think many will. The Chicago Tribune is still mocked for a similar gaffe when they published their famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline in 1948.

That was a part of the media, which makes it funny. An obscure poster on an internet board is not funny.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #373 on: November 02, 2005, 10:27:03 AM »
Quote from: mypalfish on November 02, 2004, 03:04:19 PM
I tried to tell you what was going on.  I really tried.  This looks like a landslide, folks.

One-year anniversary bump

Thanks for the memories, mypalfish.  Smiley
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StatesRights
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« Reply #374 on: November 02, 2005, 11:47:25 AM »
Quote from: Sam Spade (GM) on November 02, 2005, 10:27:03 AM
Quote from: mypalfish on November 02, 2004, 03:04:19 PM
I tried to tell you what was going on.  I really tried.  This looks like a landslide, folks.

One-year anniversary bump

Thanks for the memories, mypalfish.  Smiley

Damn it you beat me to it!
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