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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Results by Congressional District
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Author Topic: Results by Congressional District  (Read 3040 times)
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
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« Reply #25 on: June 17, 2010, 06:13:05 pm »
« edited: June 17, 2010, 06:24:26 pm by Vazdul »

For McCain to win in 2008 under the Maine-Nebraska method, he would have needed to pick up 34 electoral votes. Assuming a uniform swing from Obama to McCain and no change in third party votes, these 34 votes would have been the first to flip:

NC (Statewide) (0.32% margin) 2 votes
CA-3 (0.48% margin) 1 vote
CA-48 (0.75% margin) 1 vote
CA-44 (0.94% margin) 1 vote
IN (Statewide) (1.03% margin) 2 votes
CA-25 (1.11% margin) 1 vote
WI-6 (1.19% margin) 1 vote
NE-2 (1.22% margin) 1 vote
VA-4 (1.53% margin) 1 vote
MI-1 (1.82% margin) 1 vote
MI-4 (1.90% margin) 1 vote
VA-2 (1.96% margin) 1 vote
FL-18 (2.19% margin) 1 vote
NY-19 (2.28% margin) 1 vote
NY-24 (2.36% margin) 1 vote
KS-3 (2.58% margin) 1 vote
TX-23 (2.69% margin) 1 vote
FL (Statewide) (2.81% margin) 2 votes
CA-24 (2.85% margin) 1 vote
NY-20 (3.00% margin) 1 vote
NJ-7 (3.47% margin) 1 vote
NY-1 (3.82% margin) 1 vote
WI-1 (3.95% margin) 1 vote
FL-22 (4.04% margin) 1 vote
CA-26 (4.07% margin) 1 vote
FL-10 (4.13% margin) 1 vote
CA-50 (4.18% margin) 1 vote
MN-1 (4.37% margin) 1 vote
CA-45 (4.58% margin) 1 vote
OH (Statewide) (4.58% margin) 2 votes

Obama's nationwide margin of victory in the popular vote was 7.27%, so in this scenario, McCain wins the electoral vote while Obama wins the popular vote. Furthermore, had North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and NE-2 went to McCain in RL, Obama still would have won the electoral vote 291-247. Therefore, it is clear that the Maine-Nebraska method gives an advantage to the Republican over both the current Electoral College system and the popular vote system.
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izixs
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2010, 11:42:37 pm »

Therefore, it is clear that the Maine-Nebraska method gives an advantage to the Republican over both the current Electoral College system and the popular vote system.

Exactly. And has already been mentioned, implementing such a system nationally would likely encourage this disparity to get worse via gerrymandering.

And the rebuke there about rallies in the bronx is just silly. As if Obama finds he should rally in the Bronx, McCain might be encouraged to rally there too as obviously Obama is worried about getting enough votes out of New York to help in a national popular vote. The same could be said of McCain rallying in Oklahoma City. Obama's folks might of figured that as votes are votes, no matter where they might be, might as well try to persuade them, and follow suit.

Allot of critics of a national vote plan point to the idea that candidates would only go to big cities to campaign. Well... they already kind of do that, except its not just big cities, but its big cities in certain states. And sometimes more rural areas, but in the current makeup of political climates in the US, those rural areas are again in just the swing states.

A real national vote system wouldn't have had Obama and McCain chasing the margins in Ohio, Florida, and Missouri. You'd of seen them sweep through all fifty states and do some serious campaigning. What more, this would likely change drastically the political climate nation wide as suddenly both parties have organizations going on in all 50 states that are all essential to victory.

As for the congressional district method/proportional method in general, my final comment is that they are fake attempts to move towards a true national popular vote. A compromise designed to be poison at the end of the day, that is more likely to reward entrenched interests who hold the keys to the map room than it is to actually empower voters.
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Nym90
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« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2010, 02:58:26 am »

Yes, some congressional districts would become more important under the district system (swing districts in non swing states) but just as many would become less so (non swing districts in swing states).

Why would a candidate spend a lot of time in safe districts anyway? I don't think there's any sensible system that would make it worthwhile for a candidate to focus a lot of resources on the Bronx or the Oklahoma panhandle.

Why is it any less sensible to attempt to get these votes than the votes of anyone else?

Well, for one thing, those voters aren't sensible to begin with.  McCain could have spent the whole campaign in D.C. and still not broken out of the single digits. Obama could have spent the whole campaign in Oklahoma and still not have broken 40%.

The candidates should focus on undecided voters who are willing to become informed on the choices they face, not on party-line hacks.

Ah, so the mask is off, I see. You are wise enough to know which voters are more important than others and whose votes should decide the outcomes of elections.

Thanks for educating us rubes who are naive enough to believe that all men are created equal and should be treated as such.
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PQG will pimp slap Coronavirus!
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« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2010, 05:11:29 pm »

Nice work, Vazdul. Thanks!
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