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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  44 state landslides
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Author Topic: 44 state landslides  (Read 6783 times)
A18
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« on: November 02, 2004, 06:23:10 am »

What would a Democratic 44-state landslide look like? How would a Republican one look?
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A18
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2004, 07:18:08 am »

Well, here's my guess at the Democrat landslide:

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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2004, 07:36:10 am »

I'd switch the Dakotas for MS and AL and Nebraska for Alaska, but that's just my opinion Smiley

A republican 44 state landslide would be all but VT, MA, RI, NY, IL, and MD (and obviously DC)
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DanielX
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2004, 08:00:02 am »

Just swap South Dakota for Nebraska, and you've got it, Philip/0.

For dems, take hughento's prediction, except maybe trading Maryland for Connecticut.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2004, 08:32:35 am »

I think the Dakotas are trending Democrat. Not enough to make a difference at Presidential elections for a long time if ever, but I think that that whole region (ND, SD, MN, IA, WI) are equalling out a bit more; the Dakotas will remain GOP friendly and I believe the upper midwest will remain vaguely DEM friendly for a few more years.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2004, 10:34:18 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2004, 12:56:19 am by Alcon »

Republican landslide:



EDIT: By popular demand...DC to the Democrats!
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2004, 05:03:38 pm »

might want to give the Democrats DC, alcon Wink
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UK.USfan
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2004, 02:52:03 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2004, 02:54:20 pm by UK.USfan »

Wasn't there a 49 State landslide for Regan in 1984.....with Minnesota the only State( and DC) going to that loser Walter Mondale!
Also when was the last Dem landslide and by how much?

p.s. Where do you guys get hold of these maps and get to colour them in?

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Kodratos
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2004, 03:04:31 pm »

Wasn't there a 49 State landslide for Regan in 1984.....with Minnesota the only State( and DC) going to that loser Walter Mondale!
Also when was the last Dem landslide and by how much?

p.s. Where do you guys get hold of these maps and get to colour them in?



That depends on your definition of a landslide. The last Democrat landslide was in 1964.
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UK.USfan
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2004, 04:46:21 pm »

Oh yeah..just checked the maps for 1964....a cluster of Southern States and AZ for GOP..rest Dem. Hmmm interesting.
I've noticed how much the EV has shifted too in 40yrs, esp from OH PA and NY to States like TX and CA.

Oh and here comes another question for all you EV boffins!
Since when has it been 538? and who changes it, if anyone?

Thanks
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Alcon
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2004, 08:22:18 pm »

might want to give the Democrats DC, alcon Wink

And what if I refuse?!?

Wink
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KEmperor
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2004, 12:08:17 am »

Liberty answered your question, but he accidentally created a new thread.  Here it is:

Actually US.UKfan there have been 538 since 1964, not 1972.

Some history:

After the 1910 census they decided to fix the congress at 435 effectively fixing the electoral college at 531 (there were 48 states with two senators each: 48*2=96, 96+435=531). There were 531 votes in every election 1912-1956. Then in 1959 Alaska and Hawaii became states: The senate increased to 100 members and the House increased to 437 since Alaska and Hawaii both had to have one representative. Thus there was a total of 537 for the 1960 election. When the results of the 1960 census came in after the election, the number of representatives was changed back to 435 (it still remains at 435 to this day). However around the same time a Constitutional ammendment was passed giving DC the total number of electoral votes it would be entitled to if it were a state, namely 3. By the time the ammendment was passed the electoral college had shrunken to 535 due to the reaportionment after the 1960 census, the addition of DC's 3 votes brought it up to 538 where it stands today.

I was going to say something similar, but he already went through the trouble.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2004, 12:12:48 am »


We take away DC's electoral votes!!!!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2004, 04:12:44 am »

I think the Dakotas are trending Democrat. Not enough to make a difference at Presidential elections for a long time if ever, but I think that that whole region (ND, SD, MN, IA, WI) are equalling out a bit more; the Dakotas will remain GOP friendly and I believe the upper midwest will remain vaguely DEM friendly for a few more years.

I disagree.  The only state that even looks like it might be trending Democrat in Presidential politics in the Plains and Mountain West is Montana, but I'm not quite sure of that either.

Don't be fooled (as Shira often his about these things) by this election in 2004.  Montana and South Dakota have historically strong anti-incumbent biases and nearly every incumbent that I can think of has always done worse in these two states the second time as opposed to the first (this includes, Reagan, Bush, Carter, Clinton, even Nixon I think).

As long as the ND and SD Dem senators bring in the farm pork for the two states, they'll be in fine shape unless they do what Daschle did these last 4 years.
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DaleC76
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2004, 12:34:07 pm »

p.s. Where do you guys get hold of these maps and get to colour them in?



Use the election calculator at this site, then copy and paste the url using IMG tags.

The how-to is here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/Themes/default/help/posting.english.html
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Redefeatbush04
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2004, 03:11:41 pm »

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Redefeatbush04
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2004, 03:23:10 pm »

Since the maps aren't working again.....

6 states that would Rep in order: Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma

6 states that would go Dem in order (no dc):  Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Vermont
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