2012 Presidential Election TL

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Palin
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[California8429]

comments? suggestions? announcement of support? before we head into May

[Mr. Morden]

Good so far.  A few things to keep in mind though, as you go forward.

First, in the year before the election, one key metric of how the candidates are doing is fundraising.  How much $ does each candidate raise each quarter?  That's almost as important as polling.

In a presidential primary race, the national polls tend to change very very slowly until about a month or two before the primaries start.  Then you might start to see a lot of fast movement just before the voting starts (see, e.g., Giuliani's consistent lead in the national polls through much of 2007, and then very sudden collapse at the end of the year).  They definitely don't change as a result of things like debates, since virtually no one watches primary debates.  OTOH, it's possible for minor candidates to gain enough attention for a small niche following as a result of debates, as happened with Ron Paul in the last election.

Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire is more fluid, because people there are actually paying attention to the race much earlier than the rest of the country is.  But IA and NH also tend to see faster movement in the polls in the final month or so leading up to the vote.

It's unusual for no candidate to have more than 30% nationally plus in both Iowa and New Hampshire.....and you've got no one with more than 27% of the vote in any of them at the moment.  Realistically, in most cases, the media is not going to have time to cover more than about four or five candidates.  The remaining candidates will be widely considered to be joke candidates with no chance of winning, and will languish at 2-3% in the polls at best.

There definitely isn't polling of every state every single month, though if you really want to make national maps each month, knock yourself out.

[California8429]

Good so far.  A few things to keep in mind though, as you go forward.

First, in the year before the election, one key metric of how the candidates are doing is fundraising.  How much $ does each candidate raise each quarter?  That's almost as important as polling.

In a presidential primary race, the national polls tend to change very very slowly until about a month or two before the primaries start.  Then you might start to see a lot of fast movement just before the voting starts (see, e.g., Giuliani's consistent lead in the national polls through much of 2007, and then very sudden collapse at the end of the year).  They definitely don't change as a result of things like debates, since virtually no one watches primary debates.  OTOH, it's possible for minor candidates to gain enough attention for a small niche following as a result of debates, as happened with Ron Paul in the last election.

Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire is more fluid, because people there are actually paying attention to the race much earlier than the rest of the country is.  But IA and NH also tend to see faster movement in the polls in the final month or so leading up to the vote.

It's unusual for no candidate to have more than 30% nationally plus in both Iowa and New Hampshire.....and you've got no one with more than 27% of the vote in any of them at the moment.  Realistically, in most cases, the media is not going to have time to cover more than about four or five candidates.  The remaining candidates will be widely considered to be joke candidates with no chance of winning, and will languish at 2-3% in the polls at best.

There definitely isn't polling of every state every single month, though if you really want to make national maps each month, knock yourself out.

Thanks forthe comments. I just want this to be more interesting then evertyhing changing at the very end, yes true in reality. It would just shorten the time line.

I will have fundraising numbers out next update.

[California8429]

May 1 Sarah Palin says she will decide on a run before the end of the month.


May 3 Fundraising numbers are released (in order of polling)
Romney $16.7 million
Gingrich $15.8 million
Pataki $9.6 million
Barbour $10.4 million
Pawlenty $6.1 million
Johnson $5.5 million
Santorum $1.3 million

May 6 Mitch Daniels says he will consider a presidential run.

May 9 New Hampshire Polling
Romney 31%
Pataki 26%
Gingrich 17%
Palwenty 10%
Johnson 7%
Barbour 6%
Santorum 3%

May 10 Iowa Polling
Gingrich 32%
Romney 27%
Pawlenty 12%
Barbour 11%
Pataki 9%
Johnson 5%
Santorum 4%

May 13 Unemployment is at 8% and the DOW continues to drop. Obama says to invest in the economy and spend. This isn’t anything we should worry about, we have seen these drops before, but the long term shows economic recovery..


May 15 Semi-Month Focus
Mitt Romney-New Hampshire/Iowa
Newt Gingrich- South Carolina/Florida
George Pataki- New Hampshire
Tim Pawlenty-Iowa/Midwest
Haley Barbour-Iowa/South
Gary Johnson-New England
Rick Santorum- South Carolina

[Progressive]

Keep goin!

[California8429]

May 17 Sources say Sarah Palin met with FoxNews last week to discuss a possible TV show.

May 19 Olympia Snowe announces in Maine that she will run for President. This is seen as a surprise, though many moderates brought up her name as a possible Republican moderate they would support and see as electable. Snowe was joined by fellow Senator Susan Collins at her announcement.

We need strong leadership right now. We need good government, and government used to promote the general welfare. Now conservatives may attack me as being a moderate, or a RINO, but let me tell you something. I am no such thing, I do however, look at the outcome. Yes, I voted against the Bush Tax cuts. The same reason John McCain did, because we were about to go to War and that is not fiscally responsible. I have promoted well placed and effective tax cuts and well spent money. I believe in liberty, in freedom and your personal choices. That’s why I’m running for President.

May 20 National Polling with announced candidates
Gingrich 33%
Romney 27%
Pataki 11%
Pawlenty 9%
Barbour 6%
Snowe 6%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 4%

May 24 CNN will host a republican primary debate at the end of June. Candidates must receive at least 4% in average national polling to attend.

May 27 The DOW drops to 10,000

May 28 Sarah Palin is scheduled to be in Wasilla Alaska May 31. Commentators are split on if she will run for President or not. Some believe she will get a FoxNews show.

May 30 May 15 Semi-Month Focus
Mitt Romney-South Carolina/Florida
Newt Gingrich- Iowa
George Pataki- Iowa
Tim Pawlenty-Nevada
Haley Barbour-South Carolina/New Hampshire
Olympia Snowe- New Hampshire/Iowa
Gary Johnson-Nevada
Rick Santorum- Iowa

May 31 Sarah Palin makes an announcement.

We’ve done a lot of good in this country because of you guys, and we’ve got a long road ahead. We need to fight this socialist movement. We’ve got to stop government takeover of your lives and put our nation back down the track of freedom. I’ve taken a lot of time to think of my future and how I will play a role in this. I’ve talked to numerous people from friends and families to supporters around our great nation and I’ve made my decision. I’m going to be marching with you on Washington. I’m going to be standing with you in the fight and I’m going to be loud when I yell “freedom”. And with that said, I won’t be running for President, but I will be fighting for the presidency. I will be fighting so next November, we have a conservative in the White House.

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Snowe
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[redcommander]

Go Snowe!!!!

[ej2mm15]

you're going to have gingrich win, aren't you? '_'

[redcommander]

you're going to have gingrich win, aren't you? '_'

Republicans need Snowe or Romney to win in this scenario.

[California8429]

seems there are a lot of guests looking at the TL

[California8429]

June 1 Mitch Daniels said he is currently discussing a presidential run with family, friends and potential supporters. I’m not going to jump to any conclusion. This is a huge thing we’re talking about here and I am not going to decide until I have an absolute decision for you and that includes deciding the effects it will have on my family and my life.


June 4 Sarah Palin announces she will have a Fox News show. Sources say that the show will be a talk show more oriented as another Oprah than actually a news show.

June 7 Presidential Obama starts troop pullout in Iraq.

We will not be sending any more combat soldiers in. From now on, we are only going to bring them home.. Violence continues to mount in regions. The Kurds have been recently pushing hard to be granted independence and join with neighboring Kurds in other countries (especially Turkey and Iran) for their own Kurdistan. President Obama said he is confident the Iraqi government as well as regional governments will be able to settle the problem peacefully and well.


June 12 Presidential candidates over the past few days were asked if they would support the creation of Kurdistan.
Gingrich-Yes
Romney-No
Pataki-No
Pawlenty-Yes
Barbour-Yes
Snowe-Yes
Johnson-Yes
Santorum-No

June 15 Semi-Month Focus
Mitt Romney-Iowa/Nevada
Newt Gingrich- New Hampshire/South Carolina
George Pataki- Nevada/Florida
Tim Pawlenty-Florida/South Carolina
Haley Barbour-Iowa
Olympia Snowe- New Hampshire/Nevada
Gary Johnson-South Carolina/Florida
Rick Santorum- New Hampshire

[ej2mm15]

Go Daniels!

[California8429]

Do you guys want me to go at the current path? Or speed up things so one update is a month or two instead of a half a month?

[ej2mm15]

Do you guys want me to go at the current path? Or speed up things so one update is a month or two instead of a half a month?

Yes, until January.

[California8429]

June
There is no clear winner in the debate with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, George Pataki and to a lesser extent, Olympia Snowe and Haley Barbour all performing well.


The Shias are blocking any movement that will give the Kurds independence or more power. President Obama says he is confident that the Iraqi people will solve the problem peacefully as they have shown they can do.

Mitch Daniels announced he will explore a presidential run forming an exploratory committee.

Daniels said if supporters can raise $5 million by the end of the quarter which will end in a few weeks, he will continue his exploratory committee.

National Polling
Gingrich 30%
Romney 25%
Pataki 10%
Daniels 8%
Pawlenty 7%
Snowe 7%
Barbour 6%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 3%

July
Moderates are worried that Romney, Pataki and Snowe are splitting the moderate vote with Pawlenty and Johnson also chipping off some of their block which they believe will lead them to a nominee to far right to win the presidency.

Rudy Giuliani endorses Governor Pataki

We need real, strong leadership. Somebody ready on the job day one. Somebody who has been through crisis and can manage our national security. I’ve worked with George during 9/11 and I would love to see him as our President because I know I can trust him.

Gas prices rise to $4 in some parts of the country. Gingrich uses the opportunity to promote his “Drill Here. Drill Now.” Plan.


John McCain says he will not make an endorsement in the primaries and will “leave it up to the voters to decide”.

Tim Pawlenty’s campaign seems to be gaining little national tracking, put is picking up speed in Iowa and New Hampshire.

National Polling
Gingrich 34%
Romney 24%
Pataki 10%
Daniels 8%
Snowe 6%
Barbour 6%
Pawlenty 6%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 2%

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Snowe
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[Derek]

America would be thirsty for more conservatism with those results. Boehner would get speaker of the house.

[California8429]

America would be thirsty for more conservatism with those results. Boehner would get speaker of the house.

too controversial to make it through a one vote majority House

[California8429]

August
Nikki Haley says she has not yet decided whom to support, but will make an endorsement. All the candidates are good to me and I can’t wait until one of them gets into the White House next fall. Haley’s endorsement will pull a lot of weight in South Carolina, an extremely important state.


Gas prices have risen to around $5 in some parts of the country, the national average is $3.99.

Mike Huckabee endorses Newt Gingrich at the Ames Straw Poll. The crowd gives Huckabee a warm reception as in 2007, his placing help launch the campaign to an eventual win in Iowa.

There is one man I know will get the job done. One man who will lead our country back to the conservative path and retake the White House next November. Newt Gingrich is our man. And with your help, he’ll be our next President.

Ames Straw Poll Results
Gingrich 30%
Romney 25%
Pawlenty 12%
Daniels 10%
Barbour 8%
Johnson 7%
Pataki 4%
Santorum 3%
Snowe 1%

Pataki and Snowe skipped the poll. Both were campaigning in New Hampshire

September
Mitch Daniels tells supporters he will stay in the race.

While addressing a crowd of a couple thousand in Iowa, Mitch stated: If you win me Iowa…I’ll win you the nation.

Senator Jim DeMint announced he will enter the Presidential race.

I looked at the field and said, why not? We need a strong candidate to go head to head with Obama and that’s exactly what I intend to do. I know everyone has been in the race for half a year now, but with your strong support, we are going to win this.

Sarah Palin’s show “Sarah” will start airing January 1st on Fox News.

National Polling
Gingrich 29%
Romney 24%
Pataki 11%
Daniels 10%
Pawlenty 8%
Snowe 7%
Barbour 4%
DeMint 3%
Johnson 3%
Santorum 1%

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Snowe
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[sentinel]

I'm liking this.

[California8429]

October
The Pawlenty campaign is seen to be having trouble with few funds and lackluster performances at the debates. Will he stay in until Iowa, or bow out? If so whom will he throw his support behind?


With little time DeMint announces that his campaign will skip New Hampshire and focus on Iowa and South Carolina. No word yet on Nevada, as that race is seen as a toss-up.


Sarah Palin says she will not make an announcement before her new show premiers January 2nd in hopes of boosting her ratings.

Mitt Romney loans his campaign $12million in order to keep up full operations in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. There was speculation Romney may have bowed out of Iowa if he didn’t have the funds to compete fully.


Bobby Jindal endorses Newt Gingrich in South Carolina after his successful landslide re-election in late October. The move will have a lot of effect in shaping up the south as Barbour needed Jindal’s support to stay afloat. While Barbour still has the funds, he doesn’t have the popular support as Gingrich does who is winning support of high profile Republicans on the right.


National Polling
Gingrich 31%
Romney 24%
Pataki 11%
Daniels 11%
Snowe 6%
Pawlenty 6%
DeMint 4%
Barbour 3%
Johnson 3%
Santorum 1%

[California8429]

November
Charlie Crist endorses Olympia Snowe, touts her record of true bi-partisan work. This is more of a plain boost to Snowe than a blow to Pataki who was not as close to Senator Crist.


Newt Gingrich continues to top in the debates. Mitt Romney and George Pataki usually take a strong second with Daniels and Barbour sometimes also joining their ranks. Pawlenty and Santorum are by far the worst on the stage. Santorum for looking like a fool, Pawlenty for just not doing well on camera. Snowe, DeMint and Johnson all do decent with really only the libertarian wing praising Johnson’s performance, he’s no Ron Paul.


Haley Barbour announces he will withdraw from the race after it seemed highly unlikely he could pull a win off in Iowa and South Carolina. This leaves Gingrich and DeMint to fight for the south and is also pleasant news for third tier candidate Santorum.


National Polling
Gingrich 32%
Romney 24%
Pataki 11%
Daniels 10%
Snowe 7%
DeMint 6%
Pawlenty 5%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 1%

Iowa Polling
Gingrich 30%
Romney 22%
Daniels 15%
Pawlenty 10%
Pataki 7%
DeMint 6%
Snowe 4%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 2%

New Hampshire Polling
Romney 27%
Pataki 26%
Snowe 16%
Gingrich 10%
Pawlenty 8%
Daniels 5%
Johnson 5%
Santorum 2%
DeMint 1%

South Carolina Polling
Gingrich 29%
DeMint 23%
Romney 16%
Daniels 11%
Pawlenty 8%
Pataki 6%
Santorum 3%
Snowe 2%
Johnson 2%

December
Nikki Haley is seen likely to endorse Gingrich or Romney as her supporter Tim Pawlenty, is unlikely to make it to South Carolina. Haley does not have a great relationship with Senator DeMint who did not endorse her until far after primaries in order to secure his own Senate seat. Haley said she will endorse a candidate after the Iowa caucus.

Haley Barbour endorses Newt Gingrich for President.
I see a lot in this guy that I liked. I know he’s a conservative, I know he’s a leader and I know he’s going to win in November.


Scott Brown endorses Mitt Romney
Mitt is a man of the people. He’s one of us, he’s one of you and he understands the working needs of America. There’s nobody better to turn around the economy then our guy, Mitt Romney.


Chris Christie endorses Mitt Romney
Mitt is the man to get the job done. We need sweeping, fiscal conservative reform in Washington right now. Washington is worse than New Jersey was on my inauguration day, that’s how bad the problem is and we need it cleaned up right now.


Sources say Sarah Palin is considering endorsing Tim Pawlenty as is Rick Perry. Palin is also thought to potentially support Mitch Daniels or Newt Gingrich.

National Polling
Gingrich 31%
Romney 26%
Pataki 12%
Daniels 11%
Snowe 6%
DeMint 5%
Pawlenty 5%
Johnson 3%
Santorum 1%

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Snowe
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki