1996: Bill Clinton/Al Gore vs. Colin Powell/Pete Wilson

[Del Tachi]

Clinton/Gore--419 EV's
Powell/McCain--119 EV's

Due to Powell's posistion has a economic liberal, non-interventionist, and social moderate the south swings toward Clinton (as does Colorado and Montana). 

[Del Tachi]

Bob Dole is also a non-interventionist, and Powell, while liberal on some issues, is more conservative than Clinton, so I think not.

But Powell wouldn't be able to excite the party's conservative, southern wing.  Less Evangelical turnout means that several states (MS, AL, GA) come into play for Clinton. 

[Del Tachi]

I didn't know Bob Dole excited anyone . . .

I didn't know he alienated anyone either...

While Bob Dole might not have "excited" the Evangelical base, they still had no reason not to vote for him.  The same is not true with Colin Powell.