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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Where is my Freistaat Preußen avatar?, Apocrypha)
  1996: Bill Clinton/Al Gore vs. Colin Powell/Pete Wilson
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Author Topic: 1996: Bill Clinton/Al Gore vs. Colin Powell/Pete Wilson  (Read 7728 times)
justW353
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« on: June 23, 2010, 05:36:57 pm »

Colin Powell finally gives into the draft effort and runs for President, easily defeating his less then impressive opponents in the primaries for the Republican nomination...How does the election go?

President William J. Clinton (D-AR) / Vice President Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D-TN)
vs.
General Colin L. Powell (R-NY) / Governor Peter B. Wilson (R-CA)
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2010, 06:06:19 pm »



474-64
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justW353
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2010, 09:24:29 pm »


Not a Powell fan?  Powell beat Clinton in the polls in '96.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2010, 09:35:29 pm »


A black moderate Republican wasn't going to beat Clinton in 1996.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2010, 08:57:42 am »


A black moderate Republican wasn't going to beat Clinton in 1996.

It's funny how you predicted that Eugene McCarthy would have won against Nixon in 1968 because polls showed him in the lead, and yet when it's a politician you dislike, you predict that they would lose, regardless of what polls showed/show.
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Derek
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2010, 02:16:53 pm »

Bill Clinton would've done nothing but play the race card because that's all he's ever known how to do. Remember South Carolina in 2008? He compared Obama winning that state to Jesse Jackson winning it. He only plays the race card and would've portrayed Powell as the black candidate for the black people.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2010, 05:18:42 pm »

No way Clinton loses to Powell. The entire south would have voted democrat for the first time since 1976.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2010, 06:32:26 pm »


A black moderate Republican wasn't going to beat Clinton in 1996.

It's funny how you predicted that Eugene McCarthy would have won against Nixon in 1968 because polls showed him in the lead, and yet when it's a politician you dislike, you predict that they would lose, regardless of what polls showed/show.

Sorry, there's absolutely no comparison between the two scenarios.
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Bo
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2010, 06:47:16 pm »



Clinton wins 318-220. Clinton had about 55% approvals in late 1996, and a President with those kinds of approvals has about a 90% chance of getting reelected.
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Derek
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2010, 08:51:18 pm »

He would have won but still would only have played the race card.
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2010, 10:40:01 pm »


A black moderate Republican wasn't going to beat Clinton in 1996.

It's funny how you predicted that Eugene McCarthy would have won against Nixon in 1968 because polls showed him in the lead, and yet when it's a politician you dislike, you predict that they would lose, regardless of what polls showed/show.

Sorry, there's absolutely no comparison between the two scenarios.

Well there's at least one, which i pointed out.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2010, 08:33:44 am »

Powell landslide:



Yes, Clinton had ~55% approval ratings, but Powell must have had ~90% approval among voters. He might well win D.C. on his reelection bid.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2010, 04:22:22 pm »

That depends.  How racist were people in 1996?
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2010, 09:59:00 pm »

Colin Powell finally gives into the draft effort and runs for President, easily defeating his less then impressive opponents in the primaries for the Republican nomination...How does the election go?

President William J. Clinton (D-AR) / Vice President Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D-TN)
vs.
General Colin L. Powell (R-NY) / Governor Peter B. Wilson (R-CA)

There was absolutely ZERO chance of Pete Wilson winding up on a Republican ticket in 1996. For one thing, Wilson was pro-choice, and while the GOP was less hostile to pro-choicers in the 1990s, had Powell won the nod, he would have needed a pro-lifer.

More importantly, though, Wilson was HORRIFICALLY UNPOPULAR in 1996. So unpopular that the Dole ticket avoided him like the plague. Polls showed Dole doing WORSE in CA had he picked Wilson. In fact Wilson was so unpopular that the Californian Bob Dole DID consider for the ticket was Dan Lungren, who was then the CA Attorney General.
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2010, 08:18:48 pm »



Clinton/Gore--419 EV's
Powell/McCain--119 EV's

Due to Powell's posistion has a economic liberal, non-interventionist, and social moderate the south swings toward Clinton (as does Colorado and Montana). 
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2010, 09:08:44 pm »

Bob Dole is also a non-interventionist, and Powell, while liberal on some issues, is more conservative than Clinton, so I think not.
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2010, 02:18:32 pm »

Bob Dole is also a non-interventionist, and Powell, while liberal on some issues, is more conservative than Clinton, so I think not.

But Powell wouldn't be able to excite the party's conservative, southern wing.  Less Evangelical turnout means that several states (MS, AL, GA) come into play for Clinton. 
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2010, 02:25:45 pm »

I didn't know Bob Dole excited anyone . . .
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2010, 05:13:54 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2010, 05:16:11 pm by Republican95 »

I didn't know Bob Dole excited anyone . . .

I didn't know he alienated anyone either...

While Bob Dole might not have "excited" the Evangelical base, they still had no reason not to vote for him.  The same is not true with Colin Powell. 
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2010, 08:54:39 am »



512 - 26
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2010, 03:45:48 pm »

Why?
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