How would Western Europe have voted in U.S. Presidential Elections? (user search)
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  How would Western Europe have voted in U.S. Presidential Elections? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How would Western Europe have voted in U.S. Presidential Elections?  (Read 3057 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« on: June 21, 2010, 01:31:06 PM »
« edited: July 08, 2010, 05:43:13 PM by Rochambeau »

Since 1948:

My guesses would be:

1948:Truman
1952:Ike
1956:Ike
1960:Nixon
1964:LBJ
1968:Nixon
1972:Nixon
1976:Ford
1980:Carter
1984:Mondale
1988:Bush Sr.
1992:Bush Sr.
1996:Clinton
2000:Gore
2004:Kerry
2008:Obama
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2010, 02:59:56 PM »


No. How about you make some if you're so into it?
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2010, 03:01:19 PM »


What about '52 and '56?
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2010, 09:57:35 PM »



Not so sure about that. In Germany at least, Bush I was extremely popular.

How come? Was it his multilateral and inclusive approach? Was it because he supported the reunification of Germany? Or was it something else?
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2010, 01:14:29 AM »

How come? Was it his multilateral and inclusive approach? Was it because he supported the reunification of Germany? Or was it something else?

Yeah, it was the role he played in the process of reunification, for the most part.
And in those days, being a Republican was not a big malus for an American president in Europe.

The picture of the Republican party being a bunch of gun-loving, SUV-driving, minority-hating, anti-science Christian rednecks who are ridiculously uber-patriotic, don't care about the environment at all and enthusiastically support war against countries they couldn't even locate on an map was drawn in the 1990s.

Interesting analysis. It seems like back during the Cold War Europeans were more receptive of Republican Presidents because they felt that they could do a good job protecting them from the U.S.S.R. Thus, even when GOP Presidents made some aggressive or unilateral moves (such as invading Grenada and Panama, bombing Libya, or building a missile defense system), Europeans generally supported them. This is in contrast to Bush Jr.'s Presidency. Even before 9/11, Bush Jr. was extremely unpopular in Europe due to his withdrawal from anti-missile treaties and his plans for a missile defense system, despite the fact that Reagan previously supported the idea and that this idea received a lot of support in Europe before.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2010, 05:05:15 PM »

Since 1948:

My guesses would be:

1948:Truman
1952:Ike
1956:Ike
1960:Nixon
1964:LBJ
1968:Nixon
1972:Nixon
1976:Ford
1980:Carter
1984:Mondale
1988:Bush Sr.
1992:Bush Sr.
1996:Clinton
2000:Gore
2004:Kerry
2008:Obama

Here's my reasoning:

1948: Truman's Administration proposed the Marshall Plan and helped Western Europe rebuild. Thus, he would win Western Europe.
1952: Ike was the liberator of Western Europe from Nazi oppression. Also, he was perceived as more experienced on military and security matters. Thus Ike wins.
1956: Ike wins for the same reasons as in 1952.
1960: Nixon wins since he portrays himself as more experienced than JFK and since he is perceived to have better knowledge of the inner workings of the govt. (since he was VP). Since Western Europeans are happy with Ike, and Nixon promises to continue Ike's policies, Western Europe votes for Nixon.
1964: Since Western Europeans are afraid Goldwater is too hawkish and might start a nuclear war, most of them vote for LBJ.
1968: Nixon promises to end the Vietnam War, and since the Democrats started that war, Western Europe trusts Nixon more.
1972: Nixon withdraws most U.S. troops from Vietnam and portrays McGovern as a weak leader who would be unable to confront the U.S.S.R. and stop Soviet aggression. Thus, he wins Western Europe again.
1976: Ford had good relations with the U.S.S.R. and was perceived as more experienced. Thus, he wins.
1980: Reagan is portrayed as too extreme and as someone who might start a nuclear war. Thus, Carter wins.
1984: Reagan isn't as extreme as thought, but his refusal to negotiate with the U.S.S.R. (and thus continually poor relations with the Soviets) upsets many Europeans. Thus, Mondale wins.
1988: Reagan establishes good relations with the U.S.S.R. and pursues detente. Thus, his VP, Bush Sr., wins.
1992: Tough one. The Cold War just ended, but many Europeans are happy with Bush Sr.'s job performance. Thus, Western Europe votes for Bush Sr. again.
1996: Clinton has good relations with Western Europe and Russia, and Dole is portrayed as a reckless unilateralist. Thus, Clinton wins.
2000: The GOP is portrayed as reckless unilateralists once again. Thus Gore wins.
2004: Same as 2000. Thus Kerry wins.
2008: Same as 2000. Thus Obama wins.
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