2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

One more Delaware map, this time of the close Republican race for US House:



Rollins (in blue) lost to Urquhart (in green) by less than 700 votes.  Why was it closer than the Castle-O'Donnell race?  Well, Rollins won some New Castle RDs south of about I-95/295 and didn't get as slaughtered in Sussex County.  Rollins won that one Kent County RD by 3 votes.

[Хahar 🤔]

I would hate to have been Beau Biden today.

Serves him right for treating this opportunity so cavalierly. If he wanted to be a U.S. Senator, he should have fought for the chance.

I'm biased, I hate the idea of Beau Biden being handed the Senate seat. Whatever good he's done in his military service and trying to build up his own career... the royalty aspect is gross.

IMO, his inheriting the Senate seat would be in keeping with the traditions of the Senate.

[cinyc]

Lamontagne conceded and will not seek a recount.

In Alaska, Murkowski will announce whether she will run a write-in campaign on Friday.  IIRC, today is the deadline for another party's candidate to step down and nominate her instead.  It looks like the Libertarians and Democrats will not do so.

[cinyc]

Looking at the NY numbers, if I were Carolyn McCarthy, I'd be a bit concerned that there were only a couple thousand fewer Republican votes cast NY-04 Republican primary than in the hotly-contested NY-01 race - or even Peter King's NY-03 primary.

Not only that - but thus far, there were 2,500 more votes cast in Nassau for the Republican Gubernatorial race than for the Democratic AG race - even though the Nassau DA was running in the AGs race, which heated up the airwaves.

Just saying.

[Brittain33]

Looking at the NY numbers, if I were Carolyn McCarthy, I'd be a bit concerned that there were only a couple thousand fewer Republican votes cast NY-04 Republican primary than in the hotly-contested NY-01 race - or even Peter King's NY-03 primary.  

Just saying.

Good find. Only 23,000 votes cast in a primary is a much greater concern for Republicans in NY-1 than 21,000 Republicans should be for Democrats in NY-4. On the same day, the Republican primary in MA-10 drew over 50,000 with no marquee state-level races to speak of.

The Republican in NY-4 is going to need far, far more than 10,000 votes to get to Washington.

[cinyc]

Looking at the NY numbers, if I were Carolyn McCarthy, I'd be a bit concerned that there were only a couple thousand fewer Republican votes cast NY-04 Republican primary than in the hotly-contested NY-01 race - or even Peter King's NY-03 primary.  

Just saying.

Good find. Only 23,000 votes cast in a primary is a much greater concern for Republicans in NY-1 than 21,000 Republicans should be for Democrats in NY-4. On the same day, the Republican primary in MA-10 drew over 50,000 with no marquee state-level races to speak of.

The Republican in NY-4 is going to need far, far more than 10,000 votes to get to Washington.

Aren't Massachusetts primaries quasi-open, with Unaffiliateds able to vote in either party's primaries?  New York's are about as closed as they can be - party members only; no election day changes permitted.

[Brittain33]

Aren't Massachusetts primaries quasi-open, with Unaffiliateds able to vote in either party's primaries?  New York's are about as closed as they can be - party members only; no election day changes permitted.

Good point. Although I suppose this would matter if we posited that there are independents who would have voted in the NY-4 GOP primary if they could have... and the jury is out on that.

I don't think 20,000 votes cast in NY-4 is that significant. Nassau used to have a fearsome Republican machine and there are surely that many old folks in the district who'd come out to vote for the nominee for governor. We know Republican core voters are engaged this year. But that's not a basis for victory in that district in this day and age.

[cinyc]

Aren't Massachusetts primaries quasi-open, with Unaffiliateds able to vote in either party's primaries?  New York's are about as closed as they can be - party members only; no election day changes permitted.

Good point. Although I suppose this would matter if we posited that there are independents who would have voted in the NY-4 GOP primary if they could have... and the jury is out on that.

I don't think 20,000 votes cast in NY-4 is that significant. Nassau used to have a fearsome Republican machine and there are surely that many old folks in the district who'd come out to vote for the nominee for governor. We know Republican core voters are engaged this year. But that's not a basis for victory in that district in this day and age.

It's not the overall vote total I'm talking about - it's the relative number of votes cast in each primary.  That voters in NY-04 turned out in about the same numbers as more hotly contested races that everyone is watching matters.  And there are fewer registered NY-04 Republicans than NY-01 or NY-03 to boot.  That (so far) with all but 20 precincts reporting, fewer Democrats turned out to vote in Nassau County than Republicans when their own DA was in a hotly contested, heavily advertised race for AG says a lot about the mood in the suburbs. As of 4/1, Democrats had about a 17,000 active voter registration advantage in Nassau.  It's not as Republican as you think.

I said if I were McCarthy, I'd be concerned - not that she would definitely or is even likely to lose.  McCarthy can't just sit back and expect to win re-election.  Not this cycle.  

Keep an eye on NY-04.  It could be a sleeper.

[Smash255]

Aren't Massachusetts primaries quasi-open, with Unaffiliateds able to vote in either party's primaries?  New York's are about as closed as they can be - party members only; no election day changes permitted.

Good point. Although I suppose this would matter if we posited that there are independents who would have voted in the NY-4 GOP primary if they could have... and the jury is out on that.

I don't think 20,000 votes cast in NY-4 is that significant. Nassau used to have a fearsome Republican machine and there are surely that many old folks in the district who'd come out to vote for the nominee for governor. We know Republican core voters are engaged this year. But that's not a basis for victory in that district in this day and age.

It's not the overall vote total I'm talking about - it's the relative number of votes cast in each primary.  That voters in NY-04 turned out in about the same numbers as more hotly contested races that everyone is watching matters.  And there are fewer registered NY-04 Republicans than NY-01 or NY-03 to boot.  That (so far) with all but 20 precincts reporting, fewer Democrats turned out to vote in Nassau County than Republicans when their own DA was in a hotly contested, heavily advertised race for AG says a lot about the mood in the suburbs. As of 4/1, Democrats had about a 17,000 active voter registration advantage in Nassau.  It's not as Republican as you think.

I said if I were McCarthy, I'd be concerned - not that she would definitely or is even likely to lose.  McCarthy can't just sit back and expect to win re-election.  Not this cycle.  

Keep an eye on NY-04.  It could be a sleeper.

I don't think is much room for concern.  Yes, Rice is the Nassau DA, and the AG race received quite a bit of attention, but this is still the AG race we are talking out.  The top of the Primary ticket was an AG race on one side and a Gov race on the other.

[cinyc]

I don't think is much room for concern.  Yes, Rice is the Nassau DA, and the AG race received quite a bit of attention, but this is still the AG race we are talking out.  The top of the Primary ticket was an AG race on one side and a Gov race on the other.

Well, I hope McCarthy feels the same way and goes the way of Suozzi.  However, I think her campaign staff is smarter than that.

Perhaps they were more prevalent on cable, but I didn't see a single ad for the NY Republican governor's race and only received a few mailers, mainly from Paladino.  Kathleen Rice's ads were on TV 24-7, as were Schneiderman's and Coffey's and Dinallo's.  And there were Senate primaries on both sides.

[Smash255]

I don't think is much room for concern.  Yes, Rice is the Nassau DA, and the AG race received quite a bit of attention, but this is still the AG race we are talking out.  The top of the Primary ticket was an AG race on one side and a Gov race on the other.

Well, I hope McCarthy feels the same way and goes the way of Suozzi.  However, I think her campaign staff is smarter than that.

Perhaps they were more prevalent on cable, but I didn't see a single ad for the NY Republican governor's race and only received a few mailers, mainly from Paladino.  Kathleen Rice's ads were on TV 24-7, as were Schneiderman's and Coffey's and Dinallo's.  And there were Senate primaries on both sides.

Some ads were on cable.  Also keep in mind in addition to the Governor's race on the GOP side which had a Long Island connection with Lazio, both Senate races had Long Island connections as well.

[nclib]

The results in Delaware are incredible. It shows the right-wing wants to push conservative candidates at all cost (even ironically control of the Senate). Even Karl Rove admitted that O'Donnell isn't conservative in personal life (lies, ethics charges, etc.). Certainly the far-left is far more pragmatic--can anyone even imagine an inverse situation happening for the Dems?

[nclib]

Lamontagne leads in Hillsborough (Manchester) and Rockingham (Portsmouth) counties.  Ayotte leads in all other counties.

Is this still true? What are the best county % for each?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The problem with NY-04 is that the Republicans nominated the candidate who has very little money (Fran Becker: $88k raised, $25k on hand), not the one that has been fundraising fairly proficiently (Frank Scaturro: $558k raised, $208k on hand). Yes, yes, blah blah blah, money isn't everything, but come on, it's Long Island. That won't buy you a single TV ad. He also looks a bit unhinged on the issues for a fairly Democratic district. And of course, the Long Island candidate didn't win the gubernatorial primary.

Anyway, here's a map of the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary.



The gray county (Meonomenee -- do do dododo) had zero Republican primary votes.

[cinyc]

Lamontagne leads in Hillsborough (Manchester) and Rockingham (Portsmouth) counties.  Ayotte leads in all other counties.

Is this still true? What are the best county % for each?

Unless I've screwed up the Excel lookup functions, yes.  Ayotte's best county was Sullivan, where she took 45.3% of the vote thus far (not all is in in the AP's count).  It was also Lamontagne's worst - he only won 26.6%.   Lamontagne's best was Hillsborough, where he won 41.4%.  Ayotte's worst was actually Rockingham, largely because Binnie had a better showing there than most other places.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is O'Donnell's site having a Sharron Angle style "re-tool"?
http://christine2010.com/

There's only the donation notice...

[tmthforu94]

Is O'Donnell's site having a Sharron Angle style "re-tool"?
http://christine2010.com/

There's only the donation notice...

I noticed that too...
Question: Can Mike Castle run as an Independent?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Is O'Donnell's site having a Sharron Angle style "re-tool"?
http://christine2010.com/

There's only the donation notice...

I noticed that too...
Question: Can Mike Castle run as an Independent?

Given the fact that that's never been brought up on the forum, I'm guessing he can't (but I could be wrong), though he could probably run a write-in campaign.

If that were to happen though, I could see Mike Castle and Chris Coons splitting the left wing vote (Castle would probably be best off not running on the right at this point, Christine O'Donnell's supporters aren't bolting), allowing O'Donnell to win election with a 1912 mandate.

[cinyc]

Is O'Donnell's site having a Sharron Angle style "re-tool"?
http://christine2010.com/

There's only the donation notice...

Someone's been reading left-wing talking points. The DNC's website was down yesterday.  Did it have a Sharon Angle style "re-tool", trying to forget the "progressive" mistakes of the past?

O'Donnell's website reportedly crashed from the attention.  She's having a fund raiser - and raised almost $750,000 so far today.  Democrats should be afraid - not necessarily of O'Donnell, but of the political climate that brought her to victory.

[Хahar 🤔]

Given the fact that that's never been brought up on the forum, I'm guessing he can't (but I could be wrong), though he could probably run a write-in campaign.

It has, and he can't, and he won't run as a write-in.

[tmthforu94]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

[Brittain33]

Cinyc, my response would be that if only 25,000 votes were cast in NY-1, the assumption that the race was "hotly contested" and sets a standard for high turnout is in question. You're judging NY-4 in relation to NY-1, but I question if NY-1 means what you argue it does.

[Eraserhead]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Hasn't he been saying that for months? As per usual his claims have nothing to do with reality.

[Хahar 🤔]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Do you bring this up to laugh at Dick, or because you think that the information is important?

[cinyc]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Dick Morris is simply wrong.  I think Gillibrand's race is going to be closer than most think for various technical reasons, but her seat is not in play right now.  And DioGuardi probably doesn't have the money or name recognition to make it become in play.