Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh vs. Mitt Romney/John Thune with no financial crisis

[Bo]

Kerry picks Jennifer Granholm to give the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic Convention. Thus, Obama decides not to run in 2008 since he feels he needs more time to icnrease his name recognition. Hillary Clinton easily wins the Democratic nomination in 2008, and picks Evan Bayh as her VP. Romney wins the GOP nomination after defeating McCain in Florida and on Super Tuesday. Romney picks John Thune as his VP. The financial crisis only starts in late November 2008, after the election. Thus, it has no bearing on the election itself. How would this election turn out? Everything else stays the same. Discuss, with maps.

[Bo]

Mitt would do the same thing to Clinton that Obama did then.

If you mean he would defeat her, then lol.

[Bo]

Hillary wouldn't win in the south today.

She would win some states.

[Bo]

Hillary wouldn't win in the south today.

She would win some states.

Probably not. Especially since pissing off black voters in the 08 primaries.

In this scenario Obama doesn't run in 2008 and in RL Hillary would have won several Southern states if Obama was her VP regardless of who her opponent was.

[Bo]

Hillary wouldn't win in the south today.

She would win some states.

I don't understand where everybody gets that idea.

Hillary's not even a native Southerner. She's originally from Illinois, and she became well-known as a carpetbagger Senator from New York. Her only connection to the South is Bill Clinton.

That's good enough for many voters. Both Bushes weren't native Southerners either.

[Bo]

Hillary wouldn't win in the south today.

She would win some states.

I don't understand where everybody gets that idea.

Hillary's not even a native Southerner. She's originally from Illinois, and she became well-known as a carpetbagger Senator from New York. Her only connection to the South is Bill Clinton.

That's good enough for many voters. Both Bushes weren't native Southerners either.

Bush 41 wasn't considered a Southerner. Hence why he did so poorly in the South against Southerner Clinton.

Bush 43 did everything he could to promote a Southern image, the opposite of what Hillary did in carpetbagging her way to New York.

Many voters will still think Bill will ahve a huge influence in a Hilalry Clinton Presidency, and thus vote for Hillary since Bill is a native Southerner.

[Bo]

Black turnout would be down. Contrary to what Rochambeau is spewing, I have never seen any sort of evidence to suggest that white people down here would be any more susceptible to her then Barack. She would lose NC and VA for sure. She might pick up West Virginia, at most.

If some Southern areas (mostly heavily white ones) trended heavily GOP between 2004 and 2008 despite Bush Jr.'s unpopularity, then Obama's race probably had at least something to do with it, and thus I think Hillary Clinton would have appealed to at least a little more Southern whites than Obama did. I mean, she would have definitely had a good chance at winning Arkansas, which Obama lost by 20%.