2008: Barack Obama/Joe Biden vs. Rudy Giuliani/John Thune (with a twist)

[Bo]

Obama 410-128

I think it's unlikely Bush Jr. would have been reelected with a pro-choicer as his VP, but following your scenario, Obama wins in a massive landslide because he could easily tie Giulani to Bush Jr.'s unpopulairty (and do an even better job on that than he did with McCain, as Giulain is Bush Jr.'s VP). Also, Giuliani's support of abortion would cause a lot of moral/Evangelical voters to stay home. Finally, Giualini's corruption allegations and lack of charisma will also hurt him.

[Bo]

Obama 410-128

I think it's unlikely Bush Jr. would have been reelected with a pro-choicer as his VP, but following your scenario, Obama wins in a massive landslide because he could easily tie Giulani to Bush Jr.'s unpopulairty (and do an even better job on that than he did with McCain, as Giulain is Bush Jr.'s VP). Also, Giuliani's support of abortion would cause a lot of moral/Evangelical voters to stay home. Finally, Giualini's corruption allegations and lack of charisma will also hurt him.

Giuliani solidly loses the Dakotas with John Thune on the ticket? Thune doesn't even have a willing opponent in his Senate race this year.

Oh sorry, that was a mistake. I meant to have both Dakotas vote for Obama in the 40s. There, I fixed it.

[Bo]

Obama 410-128

I think it's unlikely Bush Jr. would have been reelected with a pro-choicer as his VP, but following your scenario, Obama wins in a massive landslide because he could easily tie Giulani to Bush Jr.'s unpopulairty (and do an even better job on that than he did with McCain, as Giulain is Bush Jr.'s VP). Also, Giuliani's support of abortion would cause a lot of moral/Evangelical voters to stay home. Finally, Giualini's corruption allegations and lack of charisma will also hurt him.

Giuliani solidly loses the Dakotas with John Thune on the ticket? Thune doesn't even have a willing opponent in his Senate race this year.

Oh sorry, that was a mistake. I meant to have both Dakotas vote for Obama in the 40s. There, I fixed it.

How does the Republican ticket lose them at all with someone as popular there as John Thune on it?

Obama lost both Dakotas by high single digits. Due to Giuliani's support of abortion, many Evangelicals/pro-lifers would either stay home or vote third party (or vote for Obama, if they are liberal on economics). Thus, I could see the Dakotas flipping to Obama in a race against Giuliani. Not to mention taht McCain amanged to distance himself from Bush a little. As Bush's VP, Giuliani would have been unable to do that.

[Bo]

Obama 410-128

I think it's unlikely Bush Jr. would have been reelected with a pro-choicer as his VP, but following your scenario, Obama wins in a massive landslide because he could easily tie Giulani to Bush Jr.'s unpopulairty (and do an even better job on that than he did with McCain, as Giulain is Bush Jr.'s VP). Also, Giuliani's support of abortion would cause a lot of moral/Evangelical voters to stay home. Finally, Giualini's corruption allegations and lack of charisma will also hurt him.

Giuliani solidly loses the Dakotas with John Thune on the ticket? Thune doesn't even have a willing opponent in his Senate race this year.

Oh sorry, that was a mistake. I meant to have both Dakotas vote for Obama in the 40s. There, I fixed it.

How does the Republican ticket lose them at all with someone as popular there as John Thune on it?

Obama lost both Dakotas by high single digits. Due to Giuliani's support of abortion, many Evangelicals/pro-lifers would either stay home or vote third party (or vote for Obama, if they are liberal on economics). Thus, I could see the Dakotas flipping to Obama in a race against Giuliani. Not to mention taht McCain amanged to distance himself from Bush a little. As Bush's VP, Giuliani would have been unable to do that.

Yeah, but John Thune is on the ticket. You keep ignoring that point.

I don't think Thune would have saved Giuliani in SD. Edwards didn't prevent Kerry from losing NC by double-digits.

[Bo]

Obama 410-128

I think it's unlikely Bush Jr. would have been reelected with a pro-choicer as his VP, but following your scenario, Obama wins in a massive landslide because he could easily tie Giulani to Bush Jr.'s unpopulairty (and do an even better job on that than he did with McCain, as Giulain is Bush Jr.'s VP). Also, Giuliani's support of abortion would cause a lot of moral/Evangelical voters to stay home. Finally, Giualini's corruption allegations and lack of charisma will also hurt him.

Giuliani solidly loses the Dakotas with John Thune on the ticket? Thune doesn't even have a willing opponent in his Senate race this year.

Oh sorry, that was a mistake. I meant to have both Dakotas vote for Obama in the 40s. There, I fixed it.

How does the Republican ticket lose them at all with someone as popular there as John Thune on it?

Obama lost both Dakotas by high single digits. Due to Giuliani's support of abortion, many Evangelicals/pro-lifers would either stay home or vote third party (or vote for Obama, if they are liberal on economics). Thus, I could see the Dakotas flipping to Obama in a race against Giuliani. Not to mention taht McCain amanged to distance himself from Bush a little. As Bush's VP, Giuliani would have been unable to do that.

Yeah, but John Thune is on the ticket. You keep ignoring that point.

I don't think Thune would have saved Giuliani in SD. Edwards didn't prevent Kerry from losing NC by double-digits.

A) Edwards was nowhere near as popular in NC as Thune is in SD.

B) SD is already a strong Republican state; they don't need to flip Democrats to win. Edwards would have had to flip a lot of Republican voters in 2004 to win NC.

In this scenario, Giulaini is essentially a pro-abortion Dick Cheney. I seriously doubt Cheney would have managed to wi SD in 2008 even with Thune as VP, and at least Cheney was pro-life. Thus, I seriously doubt Giuliani would have won SD even with Thune as VP.

[Bo]

Thune would have saved Giuliani in SD because SD is a GOP state. NC is a GOP state for the most part and Edwards was a democrat. That's the difference.

Ferraro didn't save Mondale in NY in 1984, and NY was a very Democratic state at the time (voting for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1980 were exceptions).

[Bo]

Thune would have saved Giuliani in SD because SD is a GOP state. NC is a GOP state for the most part and Edwards was a democrat. That's the difference.

Ferraro didn't save Mondale in NY in 1984, and NY was a very Democratic state at the time (voting for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1980 were exceptions).

Again, not even remotely comparable. Ferraro was a Representative with little statewide name recognition in NY, and 1984 was a mega-landslide for the GOP.

John Thune is an extremely popular statewide figure in South Dakota to the point where there is nobody even willing to challenge him this year.

Fine. Then give SD and possibly ND to Giuliani. Obama would still win in a massive landslide even without those two states.