Bobby vs. Nixon 1968

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bobby wins.

Not with that map.  Bobby replacing HHH is not going to cause Nixon voters to support Wallace.  Given that Nixon won those states with very comfortable margins, the only way for Wallace to win the Carolinas is for Wallace to pick up a lot of Democratic votes, in which case Texas will be going for Nixon, since HHH barely won Texas as it was.  If you assume that Wallace doesn't gain much and that the only significant change is Nixon votes transferring to Bobby, the Carolinas go Democratic well before the decline in Republican votes causes them to go American.

Depending on your assumptions of how Bobby replacing HHH affects the race, Bobby winning Texas and Nixon winning the Carolinas makes sense, Nixon winning all three states makes sense, Bobby winning all three states makes sense, Nixon gaining Texas but losing the Carolinas to Wallace makes sense, but Wallace picking up the Carolinas and Bobby winning Texas does not.

[21st Century Independent]

RFK for sure. He was on his way before he was killed. Between JFK's death, and the known dissention in he LBJ admin, it would have been easy.

[yougo1000]

Bobby

[Speaker Perez]

with George Wallace in the race the election would've been super close. Bobby wins popular but nixon leads in the electoral college no majority bobby wins after a long vote in the house.

Kennedy/Muskie  228 44%
Nixon/Agnew 257  42%
Wallace/Lemay 53 12%

[hcallega]

[Derek]

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Ppl get tired of the same administration after 8 years. Factor that into the equation. RFK would have been portrayed as his brother. I'm not saying anything bad about JFK and would've more than likely liked him if I were around back then. Nixon would win in a landslide with about a 10 point victory. Wallace would take votes from southern democrats and could even have had over 25% of the vote!

[Derek]

I also agree with a few threads up where you said Nixon gets slightly less votes but wins more states. I'm thinking Wallace takes 10 points from RFK.

Nixon 41%
Humphrey 31%
Wallace 28%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I also agree with a few threads up where you said Nixon gets slightly less votes but wins more states. I'm thinking Wallace takes 10 points from RFK.

Nixon 41%
Humphrey 31%
Wallace 28%

Not at all realistic.

First of all, Wallace taking 10 points from RFK only brings to Wallace to 23.5% not 28%.
 
Second, I think it is safe to assume that worst, RFK will hold on to at least half of the votes that HHH gets in a particular state.  That means that in those States where Wallace doesn't run into a hard limit of half the actual Democratic vote, Wallace will need to triple his vote count in order to reach 28%.  Just for Wallace to reach 20% nationally would be a challenge.

[Derek]

Ok so Wallace takes more than 10 points from RFK. I stand by my map.

[hawkeye59]

bump

[Thomas D]

Nixon-257
RFK-236
Wallace-45

[Phony Moderate]

Kennedy - 300
Nixon - 193
Wallace - 45

[hcallega]

Kennedy looses Maine due to Muskie not being on the ticket. He probably looses Texas unless he picks Yarborough. He picks up several Rust Belt states as he was immensely popular among blue collar whites.