SD-AL/Rasmussen: After primary, Noem (R) defeats Herseth-Sandlin (D) by 12

[Tender Branson]

South Dakota House of Representatives:

Kristi Noem (R): 53% (+10)
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 41% (-5)

Noem: 68% Favorable, 24% Unfavorable
Herseth Sandlin: 57% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on June 10, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

[Niemeyerite]

LOL

[Hash]

haha

[Rowan]

Hmm, the pieces are starting to fit together. There's a reason for this.

[Iosif]

I'm not surprised. Why am I not surprised?

[You kip if you want to...]

lolk. I'm sure Rass will release a poll of Schumer losing in a landslide because the end of summer.

[Torie]

The Dems seem to be in extremis on the Plains.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think it will stay this good, but Noem was the best challenger to Herseth-Sandlin so I wouldn't be keeping Herseth-Sandlin in the Likely Dem category more like Lean, tilt or Toss-up now.

[xavier110]

I honestly LOL'd when I read this. Ol' Ras is getting a little predictable now?

[Holmes]

92% of people have an opinion of Noem? Granted I don't know much about South Dakota, is that likely?

[Brittain33]

92% of people have an opinion of Noem? Granted I don't know much about South Dakota, is that likely?

This is the biggest question for the Rassy defenders. Does this make sense as a screen for voters?

[Niemeyerite]

92% of people have an opinion of Noem? Granted I don't know much about South Dakota, is that likely?

Yes, it's possible. probably, 70% of the people interviewed were republicans.

[cinyc]

92% of people have an opinion of Noem? Granted I don't know much about South Dakota, is that likely?

Noem won a contested primary in a sparsely populated state that, save for three small counties, is split between two small (a.k.a. cheap) TV markets.  I'd say there's a good chance Noem was advertising during the primary and has a pretty high name recognition.  Plus, she was the Assistant Majority Leader in the State House of Representatives prior to the primary, which might have given her some free press over the past few years.  92% could be a little high, but I doubt by much - especially among LIKELY voters, which is what Rasmussen polls.

[Mr.Phips]

Didnt some talk about Herseth-Sandlin being Presidential material or VP material someday?

[Shilly]

Hmm, the pieces are starting to fit together. There's a reason for this.

Spot on impression of Spade there.

[Umengus]

92% of people have an opinion of Noem? Granted I don't know much about South Dakota, is that likely?

This is the biggest question for the Rassy defenders. Does this make sense as a screen for voters?

internals questions must be taken with a grain of salt. But it's still possible if it's "Noem, republican candidate"

[Brittain33]

92% could be a little high, but I doubt by much - especially among LIKELY voters, which is what Rasmussen polls.

Well, that's what I'm thinking about here... Rasmussen's definition of likely voters may not bear much resemblance to the universe of likely voters, because I really doubt that 92% of the people who will show up to vote in November already know who is running for office for House as a challenger for the first time.

[cinyc]

92% could be a little high, but I doubt by much - especially among LIKELY voters, which is what Rasmussen polls.

Well, that's what I'm thinking about here... Rasmussen's definition of likely voters may not bear much resemblance to the universe of likely voters, because I really doubt that 92% of the people who will show up to vote in November already know who is running for office for House as a challenger for the first time.

Doubtful.  Again, it's a small state with two small media markets.   Noem ran in a contested primary and has at least 2 ads up on YouTube that she likely ran on TV.  Plus, Noem was in leadership in the state house - and probably ended up on TV while in office, at least in her half of the state.  It's not difficult to get name recognition in a small state with its own media market(s).

The belief that Rasmussen's likely voter screen is faulty is wishful thinking by those who wish it to be so because they don't like his poll results.  Rasmussen's polling has been pretty accurate in past cycles.  There is no rational reason to believe it is inaccurate this cycle - wishing Democrats were doing better isn't enough.

[Brittain33]

The belief that Rasmussen's likely voter screen is faulty is wishful thinking by those who wish it to be so because they don't like his poll results.

Wishful thinking cuts both ways on this. Republicans have a reason to want to believe his polls. So let's move past our assertions of interests and consider the issues.

I do think that it's unreasonable that 92% of likely voters would know who she is, even if she advertised on tv. Even if everyone who watched tv internalized who she is, there are tons of people who don't watch network tv or who fast forward through ads or who internalized the name but not the party or the race she's running for. I stand by my belief that it's impossible for a huge majority of future voters to know who a first-time challenger is based on her advertising for a primary that most of them sat out because they didn't care about that kind of thing.

Recall that only like 15% of people can name Sonia Sotomayor as a Supreme Court justice. Think about what that means--she certainly got more media coverage than Kristi Noem.

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As has been said elsewhere, it tends only to be accurate in the final days. Although one can get into a philosophical debate about whether any poll could be said to be accurate or not prior to an election. Maybe Rasmussen's right and everyone else is wrong. Who knows?

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1. It disagrees with other polls. That's reason enough to question them, because they can't all be right, and you have to defend your preference for them over Gallup or SUSA.
2. Extremely high levels of voter awareness of candidates.
3. Unwillingness to poll competitive races immediately before an election, when their hypotheses could actually be tested.
4. In the 2000 election, Rasmussen/Portrait of America did the same exact thing with a tight, Republican-leaning LV screen in spring and summer and their results were awful, slanted several points to the Republicans above other polls and much more than the final results. They had Bush winning Maryland. So we've been down this road before.
5. Rasmussen "resetting" polls in places like Kentucky and Illinois (? I forget) when competitors disagree sharply, producing massive swings in a couple of days.

I believe I've been as objective as I can be about the Democrats' poor prospects this year. Look at the title I gave the Gallup thread. If you feel that I am blinded by wishful thinking because I refuse to accept Rasmussen's worst-case scenario as true in June above and beyond what others are saying, I have to say you are wrong. But say what you will.

[Brittain33]

By the way, I'm more attuned to state politics than about 90% of my fellow Massholes (although less than many) and I have absolutely no clue who the Assistant House Majority Leader is.

[cinyc]

1. It disagrees with other polls. That's reason enough to question them, because they can't all be right, and you have to defend your preference for them over Gallup or SUSA.

All other polls that I know of are polling REGISTERED VOTERS right now, not likely voters.  You're comparing apples to oranges.

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Not in every poll.  Nor is it unlikey for there to be high voter awareness immediately after a contested primary - when Rasmussen has been polling.

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That's nonsense.  Rasmussen polled the Massachusetts Special Election in the week leading up to the election.  What they haven't been polling much is primary elections, period.  It's a different likely voter model than a general election, and more time consuming to poll due to a smaller sample of voters who actually can vote.

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This isn't 2000.   It's 2010.  Rasmussen has had 4 cycles since then to perfect his models.  There is simply no proof his LV screen is flawed.  And remember - on average, 1 time out of 20 EVERY pollster is going to have an outlier.

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Repolling when your results may be an outlier isn't uncommon.  On average, 1 time out of 20, it will be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...but over 90% name recognition for some state legislator? Hmm... even for people who are likely to vote and think so so early on that's doesn't seem especially plausible. A lot of the Rasmussen-bashing here is clearly based on partisan desire, but that ought to flag up at least a little bit of caution, no?

Of course, constituency polling isn't something that should be exactly trusted, no matter the polling firm. The record of such polls - everywhere - is pretty dreadful.

[cinyc]

By the way, I'm more attuned to state politics than about 90% of my fellow Massholes (although less than many) and I have absolutely no clue who the Assistant House Majority Leader is.

Unless you're in the Springfield TV market and the Massachusetts Assistant House Majority Leader happens to be from there, you live in an out-of-state TV market (Albany, Providence) or one that's too big to worry about that type of stuff (Boston).  South Dakota's 2 TV markets are very small and always on the lookout for something newsworthy.  Local politicians get a lot more face time in small TV markets than they do in larger ones - as do minor car crashes, fires, school principal firings and the like that you'd never see on Boston or NYC local news programs.

[Brittain33]

By the way, I'm more attuned to state politics than about 90% of my fellow Massholes (although less than many) and I have absolutely no clue who the Assistant House Majority Leader is.

Unless you're in the Springfield TV market and the Massachusetts Assistant House Majority Leader happens to be from there, you live in an out-of-state TV market (Albany, Providence) or one that's too big to worry about that type of stuff (Boston).  South Dakota's 2 TV markets are very small and always on the lookout for something newsworthy.  Local politicians get a lot more face time in small TV markets than they do in larger ones - as do minor car crashes, fires, school principal firings and the like that you'd never see on Boston or NYC local news programs.

I don't watch local tv news. What is the viewership of local network tv news in those markets? How close is it to voter turnout?

[cinyc]

By the way, I'm more attuned to state politics than about 90% of my fellow Massholes (although less than many) and I have absolutely no clue who the Assistant House Majority Leader is.

Unless you're in the Springfield TV market and the Massachusetts Assistant House Majority Leader happens to be from there, you live in an out-of-state TV market (Albany, Providence) or one that's too big to worry about that type of stuff (Boston).  South Dakota's 2 TV markets are very small and always on the lookout for something newsworthy.  Local politicians get a lot more face time in small TV markets than they do in larger ones - as do minor car crashes, fires, school principal firings and the like that you'd never see on Boston or NYC local news programs.

I don't watch local tv news. What is the viewership of local network tv news in those markets? How close is it to voter turnout?

I haven't a clue.  KELO-TV is probably the most watched in the state, and covers both the Sioux Falls and Rapid City markets.  They have the best website of the South Dakota stations.  Google searches show at least two instances when she was mentioned on their website before this election cycle.  There could be more.  She definitely was mentioned during the election cycle.  And as I said, there was a contested Republican primary and Noem was likely advertising outside of the newscasts, too.