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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Results by Congressional District (search mode)
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Author Topic: Results by Congressional District  (Read 3404 times)
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
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Posts: 4,295
United States


« on: June 17, 2010, 02:31:44 PM »

The electoral college is an anti-democratic anachronism that needs scraped in favor of pure popular vote. While in theory the ME-NE system is slightly more democratic, in practice it's only purpose for nationwide implementation is to ensure Republicans win the electoral college even if they lose the popular vote by several million.

If someone is willing to build on Libertas's work to determine at what point in the national vote (assuming each CD vote tracked national changes) it would take McCain to win the EC, or Gore in 2000, you'll see my point quite vividly.

For Gore to win in 2000 under the Maine-Nebraska method, he would have needed to pick up 18 electoral votes. Assuming a uniform swing from Bush to Gore and no change in third party votes, these 18 votes would have been the first to flip:

FL (Statewide) (0.01% margin) 2 votes
VA-4 (0.20% margin) 1 vote
FL-8 (0.28% margin) 1 vote
MI-10 (0.53% margin) 1 vote
WA-3 (0.85% margin) 1 vote
PA-21 (0.90% margin) 1 vote
NH (Statewide) (1.27% margin) 2 votes
IA-3 (1.40% margin) 1 vote
AR-2 (1.42% margin) 1 vote
MN-1 (1.68% margin) 1 vote
MN-6 (1.97% margin) 1 vote
FL-7 (2.06% margin) 1 vote
IA-4 (2.08% margin) 1 vote
CA-44 (2.45% margin) 1 vote
AZ-5 (2.46% margin) 1 vote
OR-5 (2.47% margin) 1 vote
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,295
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2010, 06:13:05 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2010, 06:24:26 PM by Vazdul »

For McCain to win in 2008 under the Maine-Nebraska method, he would have needed to pick up 34 electoral votes. Assuming a uniform swing from Obama to McCain and no change in third party votes, these 34 votes would have been the first to flip:

NC (Statewide) (0.32% margin) 2 votes
CA-3 (0.48% margin) 1 vote
CA-48 (0.75% margin) 1 vote
CA-44 (0.94% margin) 1 vote
IN (Statewide) (1.03% margin) 2 votes
CA-25 (1.11% margin) 1 vote
WI-6 (1.19% margin) 1 vote
NE-2 (1.22% margin) 1 vote
VA-4 (1.53% margin) 1 vote
MI-1 (1.82% margin) 1 vote
MI-4 (1.90% margin) 1 vote
VA-2 (1.96% margin) 1 vote
FL-18 (2.19% margin) 1 vote
NY-19 (2.28% margin) 1 vote
NY-24 (2.36% margin) 1 vote
KS-3 (2.58% margin) 1 vote
TX-23 (2.69% margin) 1 vote
FL (Statewide) (2.81% margin) 2 votes
CA-24 (2.85% margin) 1 vote
NY-20 (3.00% margin) 1 vote
NJ-7 (3.47% margin) 1 vote
NY-1 (3.82% margin) 1 vote
WI-1 (3.95% margin) 1 vote
FL-22 (4.04% margin) 1 vote
CA-26 (4.07% margin) 1 vote
FL-10 (4.13% margin) 1 vote
CA-50 (4.18% margin) 1 vote
MN-1 (4.37% margin) 1 vote
CA-45 (4.58% margin) 1 vote
OH (Statewide) (4.58% margin) 2 votes

Obama's nationwide margin of victory in the popular vote was 7.27%, so in this scenario, McCain wins the electoral vote while Obama wins the popular vote. Furthermore, had North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and NE-2 went to McCain in RL, Obama still would have won the electoral vote 291-247. Therefore, it is clear that the Maine-Nebraska method gives an advantage to the Republican over both the current Electoral College system and the popular vote system.
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