Ireland: Labour surge to become the most popular party in the country

[Јas]

I expect we're going to see talk about Cowen being pressured to resign soon.

My (possibly wishful) thinking is that this poll means Enda is in much greater danger of being dispatched in the short term than Brian.

[Јas]

I expect we're going to see talk about Cowen being pressured to resign soon.

My (possibly wishful) thinking is that this poll means Enda is in much greater danger of being dispatched in the short term than Brian.

I'm going to avoid making any prediction on Enda's future since I was pretty certain he was a goner after George Lee resigned. So, yeah, I haven't got a great track record on that front.

Yeah - I had hoped that would be the end, but alas, he continues. The loss of Richard Bruton's overt backing changes the dynamics though.

[Јas]

If there's a chance the election will be this year or next year I might change this to a 'proper' thread.

No real chance of a general election this year I should think.

There will be 3 by-elections, a Dublin Mayoral election and probably a Constitutional Referendum (or two) in the autumn - but barring unforeseen circumstances, there's no particular reason why there would be a general election within the next 12 months. That won't be legally necessary until mid-2012.

[Јas]

Um, could I kindly ask for another recap of the differences between the Irish parties please?  

Fianna Fáil was founded by Éamon deValera as an off-shoot of anti-Treaty Sinn Féin in 1926. It has been the largest parliamentary party since 1932 and has participated in government for most of the time since then.  Never a party of strong ideological convictions, it has traditionally been centrist on economic matters and conservative on social issues. The party has weathered a number of significant sleaze-related scandals in recent years. It is the dominant partner in the current coalition government.

Fine Gael is the second-largest party (a position it has maintained uninterruptedly for
almost 80 years having evolved from pro-Treaty Sinn Féin in the 1920s) and has traditionally been a centre-right party in the Christian-democratic mould. In the 1970s it evolved a social-democratic wing, making it more centrist in orientation. The party has been out of power since 1997.

The Labour Party has pretty much always been the third party of Irish politics. Socialist, social-democrat, et al. The party has moved towards the centre in recent years.

Green Party:  soft-left, environmentalists. Entered Government for the first time in 2007, just before the economic crash hit. Will have to work hard to survive the next election.

Sinn Féin: socialist, republican (political wing of the now defunct Provisional IRA). Likely to compromise on anything to get into Government – but unlikely to be sought as a Government partner by anyone. Have a safe small contingent of parliamentarians – but unlikely to really grow substantially in the short-medium term.

The following links to posts and conversations might be useful for further reading as either myself or Gully pontificate on such things:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=46004.msg1116054#msg1116054
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61532.msg1346728#msg1346728
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79453.msg1637755;topicseen#msg1637755