A Democratic lock on the White House?

[Bo]

It's possible, but keep in mind that 2000 and 2004 (to a lesser extent) were supposed to be Democratic years if you look at the cirumstances. In 2000, there was a good economy, no foreign wars, and a popular incumbent President, and the GOP still managed to win that election. In 2004, we had Iraq, huge deficits, high fuel prices, the economy was just coming out of a recession/jobless recovery, and the Democrats lost that election as well. Thus, even if it appears cirumstances will be beneficial for the Democrats in the upcoming decades, Democrats could just blow several elections that they are supposed to win by nominating poor, uncharismatic candidates who run bad campaigns. Also, IMO, if the GOP nominated McCain in 2000 (and 2004), he would have won about as many EVs as Clinton did in both 2000 and 2004.

[Bo]

I actually agree that we might dominate the White House and be out of the congressional majority. That tends to be the way Americans vote. It's far easier to run against the President then to run for an agenda.

Demographics will help the Democrats. There simply won't be enough white men to keep the GOP in charge.

actually, much of the demographic growth is in Republican states, which could help the GOP in the EV count.

Yeah, but most of the growth in the GOP states comes from minorities, who typically and historically have voted Democratic. Thus, many of those fast-growing GOP states will likely become more Democratic in the long run.

[Bo]

Well, if you listen to the GOP excuse for the deficits, a Democratic President and a Republican Congress is the way it should be.  Although that didn't really help with Truman... or Reconstruction.

I thought the GOP excuse for deficits was that they don't matter and that they are so big they can take care of themselves.

[Bo]

Serious articles were written in the 1980s claiming that there was a Republican 'lock' on the White House. Such claims were nonsense then and are nonsense now.

Well, from 1968 to 1992 there was a kind of republican lock. Of course it was more contextual than structural.

Exactly. The Democrats could have won in 1968 with a more charismatic candidate (and no Vietnam War). And if Carter didn't screw up so badly or was never elected in the first place, I seriously doubt the GOP would have won all 3 Presidential elections held in the 1980s.

[Bo]

There are hundreds of reasons for our deficits. At least when it's spent on weapons and missiles, our country is helping the private sector out being that they are bought from the market. I've heard stories where we blow up rocks and buildings that have already been blown up because we have such an abundance. If we keep buying and benefiting the private sector like this, then the unemployed can work making nuclear weapons and missiles.

I remember a guy who continuously repeated that deficits were always bad.

They are if they're repeated. Look our debt is about to be greater than the entire net worth of our country soon.

We can thnak Reagan, Bush Sr., and Bush Jr. for that.

[Bo]

Moderate Republicans like me rather vote in Liberal Democrats than Conservative Republicans. So the Democrats will start to have a lock on the White House similar to what the Republicans had from Nixon to Bush Jr.

The GOP didn't really have a lock on the White House between 1968 and 2004. Sure, they won 7 out of 10 Presidential elections, but Democrats let 1968, 2004, and especially 2000 slip from their grasp.