Neither party has a lock. If the country improves the incumbent party can retain the WH, if the economy falters they're gone.
If unemployment is still above 8%, GDP growth below 3%, Debt exploding, its not unreasonable to think a Daniels or Thune could beat Obama in 2012.
Also, post the census about 8-10 EVs will shift from the Democratic NE states to the Rep southern states, giving the GOP a small advantage in close elections.
Excuse me and it's not just you, but alot of people here think that 7.5 and 8% are the levels for unemployment. I seem to remember unemployment being at 5.4% and our GDP rate being 7.2% in 2003 and 2004 and Bush being blamed for a bad economy. Since when did 8% unemployment become ok?
Hoover didn't. Neither did Carter (and I think his peak was a fractional point lower that Ford's).
Hoover and Carter lost because the perception was that things were getting worse. My point is that you can't just look at the unemployment number in a vacuum and make a prediction. You have to look at the period immediately preceding it and considering how people are going to judge a president.
