Neither party has a lock. If the country improves the incumbent party can retain the WH, if the economy falters they're gone.
If unemployment is still above 8%, GDP growth below 3%, Debt exploding, its not unreasonable to think a Daniels or Thune could beat Obama in 2012.
Also, post the census about 8-10 EVs will shift from the Democratic NE states to the Rep southern states, giving the GOP a small advantage in close elections.
Excuse me and it's not just you, but alot of people here think that 7.5 and 8% are the levels for unemployment. I seem to remember unemployment being at 5.4% and our GDP rate being 7.2% in 2003 and 2004 and Bush being blamed for a bad economy. Since when did 8% unemployment become ok?
It's about expectations and change. Unemployment was still high in 1936, but FDR won 48 states.
Hoover didn't. Neither did Carter (and I think his peak was a fractional point lower that Ford's).