Elections By How Many Votes Would Have Needed to Flip to Change the Outcome

[Bo]

I only listed elections where a flip of 15,000 or less votes would have changed the outcome. I think I listed all of those elections below.

2000: 269 votes (1 state: FL)
1876: 445 votes (1 state: SC)
1884: 575 votes (1 state: NY)
1916: 1,887 votes (1 state: CA)
1844: 2,554 votes (1 state: NY)
1888: 7,187 votes (1 state: NY)
1976: 9,246 votes (2 states: OH+HI)*
1880: 10,517 votes (1 state: NY)
1960: 11,874 votes (5 states: MO+IL+NV+NM+HI)

*Assuming that the one Reagan elector would have voted for Ford as pledged

[rbt48]

This is great work you have done.  I had been planning to do the same myself.  May I have your permission to add this to my website?

Also, in 1960, Just Illinois and Missouri were need to flip to put the outcome in the hands of the Byrd electors in Alabama and Mississippi.  I have to think they would have tried to strike a deal with one of the candidates rather than cast their votes for Byrd and have the House elect Kennedy with no concession at all.

[WillK]

I only listed elections where a flip of 15,000 or less votes would have changed the outcome. I think I listed all of those elections below.

2000: 269 votes (1 state: FL)
1876: 445 votes (1 state: SC)
1884: 575 votes (1 state: NY)
1916: 1,887 votes (1 state: CA)
1844: 2,554 votes (1 state: NY)
1888: 7,187 votes (1 state: NY)
1976: 9,246 votes (2 states: OH+HI)*
1880: 10,517 votes (1 state: NY)
1960: 11,874 votes (5 states: MO+IL+NV+NM+HI)

*Assuming that the one Reagan elector would have voted for Ford as pledged

1800 (NY) and 1812 (PA) were incredibly close but I cant figure out the number needed to flip them.

[Bo]

This is great work you have done.  I had been planning to do the same myself.  May I have your permission to add this to my website?

Also, in 1960, Just Illinois and Missouri were need to flip to put the outcome in the hands of the Byrd electors in Alabama and Mississippi.  I have to think they would have tried to strike a deal with one of the candidates rather than cast their votes for Byrd and have the House elect Kennedy with no concession at all.

Yes, you have my permission to add this to your website. In regards to 1960, I tried to figure out the smallest number of votes that would have been required to throw the election directly to the other candidate, rather than to the House (which was controlled by the Democrats back then anyway). For 1976, that Ford/Reagan elector said that he voted for Reagan as a protest due to the election of Jimmy Carter and Carter's position on abortion. Thus, I seriously doubt that he would have still voted for Reagan had Ford won the election (with exactly 270 EVs) and had his vote been the decisive one.

[Nym90]

Very interesting, good work.

I would point out, however, that I think it makes more sense to look at the percentage of votes in each state that would have to flip, rather than the raw number of votes; otherwise there is a bias towards older elections and towards smaller states.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting, good work.

I would point out, however, that I think it makes more sense to look at the percentage of votes in each state that would have to flip, rather than the raw number of votes; otherwise there is a bias towards older elections and towards smaller states.

Yes, it's exactly what I've always thought.

[Smid]

This is exceptional work.

[Bo]

This is exceptional work.

Thank you. I did it all in several hours. I hope I didn't make any mistakes. Maybe later if I'll have time I'll do the % flip necessary in order to change the outcome of an election.