Ireland: Labour surge to become the most popular party in the country
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May 09, 2021, 06:46:37 PM

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  Ireland: Labour surge to become the most popular party in the country
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Author Topic: Ireland: Labour surge to become the most popular party in the country  (Read 2528 times)
Oakvale
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« on: June 11, 2010, 06:01:17 AM »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0611/breaking20.html

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So, this is unprecedented. Fianna Fáil being on 17 percent is particularly devestating - I expect we're going to see talk about Cowen being pressured to resign soon.

 Naturally, as a Labour voter, I'm pretty happy with the poll results...
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2010, 06:02:14 AM »

Huzzah!
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change08
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2010, 06:16:31 AM »

Different country/voting system, but still:


And then this:
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2010, 06:35:09 AM »

Different country/voting system, but still:


And then this:


Yeah, but the "different voting system" avoids that to some degree. *touches wood*
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change08
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2010, 06:48:51 AM »

Different country/voting system, but still:


And then this:


Yeah, but the "different voting system" avoids that to some degree. *touches wood*

True, but what i'm saying that polls aren't everything. The LibDems were expected to beat Labour in the PV, but they ended up only improving by 0.9% on their 2005 result.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2010, 06:53:12 AM »

I expect we're going to see talk about Cowen being pressured to resign soon.

My (possibly wishful) thinking is that this poll means Enda is in much greater danger of being dispatched in the short term than Brian.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2010, 07:31:14 AM »

I expect we're going to see talk about Cowen being pressured to resign soon.

My (possibly wishful) thinking is that this poll means Enda is in much greater danger of being dispatched in the short term than Brian.

I'm going to avoid making any prediction on Enda's future since I was pretty certain he was a goner after George Lee resigned. So, yeah, I haven't got a great track record on that front.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2010, 08:20:25 AM »

I expect we're going to see talk about Cowen being pressured to resign soon.

My (possibly wishful) thinking is that this poll means Enda is in much greater danger of being dispatched in the short term than Brian.

I'm going to avoid making any prediction on Enda's future since I was pretty certain he was a goner after George Lee resigned. So, yeah, I haven't got a great track record on that front.

Yeah - I had hoped that would be the end, but alas, he continues. The loss of Richard Bruton's overt backing changes the dynamics though. Smiley
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hcallega
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2010, 08:26:14 AM »

So for once in Irish politics voters will vote on the ISSUES? Goodness gracious.

Actually I generally support FF, but I would probably vote Labour in this upcoming election. Who knows, I might actually be there for it!
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2010, 08:31:32 AM »

Um, could I kindly ask for another recap of the differences between the Irish parties please?  Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2010, 08:33:12 AM »

If there's a chance the election will be this year or next year I might change this to a 'proper' thread.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2010, 08:39:02 AM »

If there's a chance the election will be this year or next year I might change this to a 'proper' thread.

No real chance of a general election this year I should think.

There will be 3 by-elections, a Dublin Mayoral election and probably a Constitutional Referendum (or two) in the autumn - but barring unforeseen circumstances, there's no particular reason why there would be a general election within the next 12 months. That won't be legally necessary until mid-2012.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2010, 09:16:44 AM »

Um, could I kindly ask for another recap of the differences between the Irish parties please?  Smiley

Fianna Fáil: Centrist to centre-right, populist, conservative. You could make an awkward comparison with some of those conservative Democrats in the Southern US.
Fine Gael: Centre right, more economically liberal than Fianna Fáil, arguably more socially liberal.
Labour: Centre left.
Sinn Féin: Supposedly socialist but really a single-issue party based around a united Ireland.
Socialists: Stunningly, far left.
Oh, wait, let's not forget Libertas! *collapses laughing*.

A general rule of thumb is that Labour do very well in urban areas while Fianna Fáil and, to an extent, Fine Gael do better in rural areas where no-one would vote Labour if you paid them.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2010, 09:17:40 AM »

If there's a chance the election will be this year or next year I might change this to a 'proper' thread.

There's an outside chance, but it's not probable. There's a vote of confidence next week though, so maybe the Greens will suddenly become principled. *snort*
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Verily
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« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2010, 09:20:26 AM »

Um, could I kindly ask for another recap of the differences between the Irish parties please?  Smiley

Fianna Fáil: Centrist to centre-right, populist, conservative. You could make an awkward comparison with some of those conservative Democrats in the Southern US.
Fine Gael: Centre right, more economically liberal than Fianna Fáil, arguably more socially liberal.
Labour: Centre left.
Sinn Féin: Supposedly socialist but really a single-issue party based around a united Ireland.
Socialists: Stunningly, far left.
Oh, wait, let's not forget Libertas! *collapses laughing*.

A general rule of thumb is that Labour do very well in urban areas while Fianna Fáil and, to an extent, Fine Gael do better in rural areas where no-one would vote Labour if you paid them.


You forgot (probably intentionally) the Greens.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2010, 09:26:19 AM »
« Edited: June 11, 2010, 09:38:53 AM by Jas »

Um, could I kindly ask for another recap of the differences between the Irish parties please?  Smiley

Fianna Fáil was founded by Éamon deValera as an off-shoot of anti-Treaty Sinn Féin in 1926. It has been the largest parliamentary party since 1932 and has participated in government for most of the time since then.  Never a party of strong ideological convictions, it has traditionally been centrist on economic matters and conservative on social issues. The party has weathered a number of significant sleaze-related scandals in recent years. It is the dominant partner in the current coalition government.

Fine Gael is the second-largest party (a position it has maintained uninterruptedly for
almost 80 years having evolved from pro-Treaty Sinn Féin in the 1920s) and has traditionally been a centre-right party in the Christian-democratic mould. In the 1970s it evolved a social-democratic wing, making it more centrist in orientation. The party has been out of power since 1997.

The Labour Party has pretty much always been the third party of Irish politics. Socialist, social-democrat, et al. The party has moved towards the centre in recent years.

Green Party:  soft-left, environmentalists. Entered Government for the first time in 2007, just before the economic crash hit. Will have to work hard to survive the next election.

Sinn Féin: socialist, republican (political wing of the now defunct Provisional IRA). Likely to compromise on anything to get into Government – but unlikely to be sought as a Government partner by anyone. Have a safe small contingent of parliamentarians – but unlikely to really grow substantially in the short-medium term.

The following links to posts and conversations might be useful for further reading as either myself or Gully pontificate on such things:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=46004.msg1116054#msg1116054
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61532.msg1346728#msg1346728
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79453.msg1637755;topicseen#msg1637755
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2010, 09:31:57 AM »

Um, could I kindly ask for another recap of the differences between the Irish parties please?  Smiley

Fianna Fáil: Centrist to centre-right, populist, conservative. You could make an awkward comparison with some of those conservative Democrats in the Southern US.
Fine Gael: Centre right, more economically liberal than Fianna Fáil, arguably more socially liberal.
Labour: Centre left.
Sinn Féin: Supposedly socialist but really a single-issue party based around a united Ireland.
Socialists: Stunningly, far left.
Oh, wait, let's not forget Libertas! *collapses laughing*.

A general rule of thumb is that Labour do very well in urban areas while Fianna Fáil and, to an extent, Fine Gael do better in rural areas where no-one would vote Labour if you paid them.


You forgot (probably intentionally) the Greens.

Haha, that wasn't intentional, but they'll have maybe two seats after the next election so they'll be largely irrelevant.
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DL
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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2010, 09:55:26 AM »

Doesn't the Labour party in Ireland have some pockets of rural strength around Cork?

Of course if their national share of the popular vote were to actually soar from the mid-teens in the last election to over 30% - they would almost certainly be making a breakthrough in rural areas since a rising tide like that has to raise all ships.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2010, 05:36:25 PM »

Doesn't the Labour party in Ireland have some pockets of rural strength around Cork?

Of course if their national share of the popular vote were to actually soar from the mid-teens in the last election to over 30% - they would almost certainly be making a breakthrough in rural areas since a rising tide like that has to raise all ships.

Around Cork? No. But traditionally it does have some rural strength (and still does) in South East Lenister.

No comment on the rest of the thread.
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