Swedish election 2010

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Probably the most intresting piece of information to come out of Almedalen if you ask me. It's pretty obviously an election tactic, that can either hit perfectly right, or awfully wrong. At best it'll strengthen the imidge of Reinfeldt as the person carefully taking care of the Swedish economy, doing everything he has to do to defeat defecits and keeping the Swedish economy stable in these times of crisis, as well as lure over some of the "gråsosse" and middle voters with his welfere promisis. Or it could have no effect on the Red-Greens what so ever but alienate his own voters.

In most cases I would have thought this a pretty stupid strategy, but as a response to the Red-Green promise to spend 12 million more than the Alliance on welfere, no matter how much the Alliance spends, this is brilliant. Reinfeldt knows that the Red-Greens were not counting on him promising that, and in order for them to keep their promise now they'd have to raise taxes more than they have intended to do, so Reinfeldt can go on slashing at the Red-Green tax shock, all while having given himself a shield against their "He will lower taxes for the EVIL rich" arguments.   

And since the Centre Party (and Kd too I think) have said they want to keep loweing taxes, it might also have the effect that some of the more tax-obsessed rightwingers in the Alliance will decide to support these two parties instead, which might help them stay above the water line (4%) in September.


How much have you heard about the Littorin scandal in Almedalen? Is it being talked about at all? Aftonbaldet obviously had an orgasm when this story started to appear. They've been looking for something to strike the right with since they started leading in the polls, but I don't think they'll be so lucky with this one as they hope. Partly because it is too early for anyone that isn't a political geek to remember it on election day, partly because Littorin resigned before the scandal was actually revealed, and partly because no one again who isn't a political geek knows that Littorin was actually a very high-up and influential Moderate, if they even knew who he was before this.

Besides it's not like the Red-Greens can strike the goverment on scandals as long as Mona is their leader.

For non-Swedes btw, Littorin was a Swedish cabinet minister who resigned a few days ago, it has now been revealed that he probably (most likely) bought sex from a prostitute.   

 

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No? Really? Who could have thought that.

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Det är ju ingenting, jag diskuterade med ett par ung vänstrare i vintras som ansåg att man borde införa trängselskatt i alla orter med mer en 10 000 invånare

If MP wants to shot themselves in the foot I'm not gonna complain. Strange though that when they finally start to break ground with the broader Swedish public and are on their way to their best election results ever, they willingly risks it with these kinds of coocy statements.

[Gustaf]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

[Democratic Hawk]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

What "left"? The choice is only between centrist new liberalism or rightwing neoliberalism in any Western capitalist society. I'll say one thing about Sweden, and indeed, the entire Nordic model, at least, they actually pay "living" benefits, which is more than can be said for the UK and even, here, mass welfare dependency is just another consequence of the "cult of neoliberalism". Relatively little reliance on it during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s

[Franzl]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

What "left"? The choice is only between centrist new liberalism or rightwing neoliberalism in any Western capitalist society. I'll say one thing about Sweden, and indeed, the entire Nordic model, at least, they actually pay "living" benefits, which is more than can be said for the UK and even, here, mass welfare dependency is just another consequence of the "cult of neoliberalism". Relatively little reliance on it during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s

You're like a broken record...

[Vepres]

4. We're going to have to deal with major changes in the welfare system once the baby-boomers retire and people in general live longer and longer.

Wait, you just found that out.

[Hash]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

What "left"? The choice is only between centrist new liberalism or rightwing neoliberalism in any Western capitalist society. I'll say one thing about Sweden, and indeed, the entire Nordic model, at least, they actually pay "living" benefits, which is more than can be said for the UK and even, here, mass welfare dependency is just another consequence of the "cult of neoliberalism". Relatively little reliance on it during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s

You're like a broken record...

It's only the 600th time he's used his token phrase "cult of neoliberalism".

[Democratic Hawk]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

What "left"? The choice is only between centrist new liberalism or rightwing neoliberalism in any Western capitalist society. I'll say one thing about Sweden, and indeed, the entire Nordic model, at least, they actually pay "living" benefits, which is more than can be said for the UK and even, here, mass welfare dependency is just another consequence of the "cult of neoliberalism". Relatively little reliance on it during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s

You're like a broken record...

It's only the 600th time he's used his token phrase "cult of neoliberalism".

But what are ideologies if not "cults"?

[Franzl]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

What "left"? The choice is only between centrist new liberalism or rightwing neoliberalism in any Western capitalist society. I'll say one thing about Sweden, and indeed, the entire Nordic model, at least, they actually pay "living" benefits, which is more than can be said for the UK and even, here, mass welfare dependency is just another consequence of the "cult of neoliberalism". Relatively little reliance on it during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s

You're like a broken record...

It's only the 600th time he's used his token phrase "cult of neoliberalism".

But what are ideologies if not "cults"?

So I may refer to you as a member of the "cult of socialism"?

[Democratic Hawk]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

What "left"? The choice is only between centrist new liberalism or rightwing neoliberalism in any Western capitalist society. I'll say one thing about Sweden, and indeed, the entire Nordic model, at least, they actually pay "living" benefits, which is more than can be said for the UK and even, here, mass welfare dependency is just another consequence of the "cult of neoliberalism". Relatively little reliance on it during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s

You're like a broken record...

It's only the 600th time he's used his token phrase "cult of neoliberalism".

But what are ideologies if not "cults"?

So I may refer to you as a member of the "cult of socialism"?

I could easily refer to revolutionary socialism as being a "cult" but it's hardly relevant to even speak of it in the 21st century

And if I'm a socialist, democratic or revolutionary, then its news to me

[Franzl]

well whatever your ideology is....does it really matter? You said that ideologies can all be called "cults".

So how about "cult of christian democracy"?

[Democratic Hawk]

well whatever your ideology is....does it really matter? You said that ideologies can all be called "cults".

So how about "cult of christian democracy"?

I tend to restrict the term "cult" to the failed ideological Gods

[Franzl]

well whatever your ideology is....does it really matter? You said that ideologies can all be called "cults".

So how about "cult of christian democracy"?

I tend to restrict the term "cult" to the failed ideological Gods

What qualifies as failed is somewhat subjective, wouldn't you say?

[Tender Branson]

Littorin affair hits voter confidence in Reinfeldt

Sweden's Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt's popularity has dipped as a result of the resignation of employment minister Sven Otto Littorin  amid allegations that he bought sex in 2006, a new survey by Sifo shows.

In the Sifo survey, published in the Aftonbladet  tabloid which exposed the allegations against Littorin, 18 percent of respondents said that their confidence in Fredrik Reinfeldt has fallen after the affair.

In a further survey, by the Expressen daily and conducted by Demoskop, 31 percent of respondents claimed that their confidence in Reinfeldt had declined.

Confidence in the Alliance government has also fallen, by 32 percent in the Expressen/Demoskop survey.

Despite the figures, the vast majority of respondents - 62 and 65 percent respectively - responded that their confidence in the government remained unchanged.

Both studies show that it is primarily voters who vote for the opposition parties who had lost confidence in both the prime minister and the government.

The two studies were carried out on Monday with the Sifo study involving 1,000 people, and the Demoskop poll involving 752 people in an internet panel.

Aftonbladet on July 10th published allegations from a 30-year-old woman who claimed to have sold sex to Sven Otto Littorin prior to his appointment as a minister in 2006. The newspaper has also claimed that Littorin resigned his post a day after he was challenged to comment on the allegations.

Sven Otto Littorin has since denied the allegations and Fredrik Reinfeldt has denied any knowledge of them saying only that the ex-minister gave "several reasons" for his departure from the government.

http://www.thelocal.se/27760/20100713/

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Speaking of Aftonbladet, rumours are now circulating that Littorin might be plaing to sue them for libel reporting. Apperently there are no further proof for the affair except the word of the woman, and since the crime is prescibated, there won't be any formal investigation either.

Such a turn could obviously be pretty intresting.

I'm looking forward to the first post-Littorin poll to see how this has actually changed the voting-intentions. As noted in Tender's article, the people that are most upset by this and have lost most confidense, are the people who didn't intend to vote for the Alliance any way.

 

[Democratic Hawk]

well whatever your ideology is....does it really matter? You said that ideologies can all be called "cults".

So how about "cult of christian democracy"?

I tend to restrict the term "cult" to the failed ideological Gods

What qualifies as failed is somewhat subjective, wouldn't you say?

I don't consider the 'Crash of 2008' a success story

[Gustaf]

4. We're going to have to deal with major changes in the welfare system once the baby-boomers retire and people in general live longer and longer.

Wait, you just found that out.

I wasn't aware of the extent, time-frame or solutions in any great detail previously, no.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

With the lack of Swedish election news (We're still waiting for the first post-Almedalen-and-Littorin poll) I thought I'd post some intresting statistics from 06 for everyone to enoy. ^^

Constituencies won by the Alliance by margin

1 Stockholm County (+23,08%)
2 Stockholm City (+15,93%)
3 Halland (+14,79%)
4 Skåne South (+14,62)
5 V. Götaland West (+9,85%)
6 Uppsala (+9,20%)
7 Jönköping (+8,76%)
8 Skåne North & East (+7,54%) This is where I live
9 Skåne West (+5,72%)
10 Kronoberg (+4,48%)
11 V. Götaland South (+2,90%)
12 Gothenburg (+2,31%)
13 Gotland (+1,90%)
14 V. Götaland East (+0,46%)

Constituencies won by the Red-Greens by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,78%) Bloody Scary
2 Västerbotten (+19,83%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,69%)
4 Gävleborg (+13,96%)
5 Örebro (+13,70%)
6 Jämtland (+11,11%)
7 Blekinge (+10,65%)
8 Värmland (+9,62%)
9 Dalarna (+9,07%)
10 Södermanland (+9,02%)
11 Västmanland (+6,22%)
12 Kalmar (+5,54%)
13 V. Götaland North (+3,47%)
14 Malmö (+3,07%)
15 Östergötland (+1,06%)

[Gustaf]

Cheese,

Why Hörby - Höör area is only somehow centrist area in Skåne.

The reply to the question "Why is area X so heavily for C" invariably comes back "because there are no people there"

I think this is the case in Hörby-Höör too.

[Gustaf]

Looking at the results though, it isn't the most centrist area in Skåne. Svalöv, followed by Båstad and Höörby were strongest for C.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Cheese,

Why Hörby - Höör area is only somehow centrist area in Skåne.

I'm not sure what you mean exactly. Do you mean why they vote more for the Centre Party than the rest of Skåne? Because as Gustaf pointed out, there are a few places that voted more strongly for them. As to why places like Svalöv, Hörby, and Tomellila votes more for C than the rest of Skåne, the answer is much agriculture in those places. Båstad is a bit more surprising, as the the population there could probably be described as anything but rural.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Aha I see. Well if Sweden used one-member AV constituencies, I think the Moderates would have, as you say, been the winning party in almost all seats the right would have won. In Skåne I could see Folkpartiet win a seat in the Landskrona area where they are strong, but otherwise it would be Moderates everywhere else here. The Centre could as you pointed out win seats in Gotland, Öland, Jämtland, Västerbotten, Halland and Hälsingland, while Kd would have a few seats in Jönköping. FP would be really screwed and probably win only a few seats, or even none. (Their votes are to evenly spread out) The Socialdemocrates would probably dominate the left completely, and V and Mp wouldn't win any seats at all.

Do you still have the distric map you designed? I've always wondered what a FPTP/AV-style system would have produced for kind of map here.     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

FINALLY A NEW POLL!!!

This one's from Skop. Alliance still in the lead, but some of the polling was done before the Littorin affair broke, and it might therefore not be completely trustworthy. But still continued good news for the Alliance. Record high support for the Modeartes, record low for the Social Democrats. Sweden Democrats get in, but the Alliance lead is so big they would almost get their own majority anyway.

Alliance: 48,6%

M: 33,3%
Kd: 4,0%
Fp: 6,6%
C: 4,7%

Red-Greens: 44,7%

Mp: 10,5%
S: 29,2%
V: 5,0%

Sweden Democrats: 4,0%

[Gustaf]

I was going to post that too.

Skop used to be pretty bad but has probably become better over the years. This is more or less in line with other polls as well.

If S fails to break 30% and becomes only the second biggest party, then...pigs will fly.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If S fails to break 30% and becomes only the second biggest party, then...pigs will fly.

I wonder if Baylan still thinks they're gonna get 40% >:-) I suspect he will be one of the first pigs to fly if S lose both election and their status as unbeatable biggest party.

[Gustaf]

If S fails to break 30% and becomes only the second biggest party, then...pigs will fly.

I wonder if Baylan still thinks they're gonna get 40% >:-) I suspect he will be one of the first pigs to fly if S lose both election and their status as unbeatable biggest party.

Yeah. I saw a debate (sort of) between him and Schlingmann in Almedalen. He was actually pretty good in that seminar, but generally he is awful. Then again, party secretaries tend to be awful. Then again, he was bad even when he was a minister.