KY: Research 2000: Paul still defeating Conway
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  KY: Research 2000: Paul still defeating Conway
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Author Topic: KY: Research 2000: Paul still defeating Conway  (Read 3107 times)
Brittain33
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« on: May 27, 2010, 01:51:54 PM »

Rand Paul (R) 44 (42)
Jack Conway (D) 40 (39)
Undecided 9

Favorable/Unfavorable

Paul 53/33 (56/27)
Conway 48/43 (46/44)

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/5/26/KY/529

Double-yoo. Tee. Eff. on the fav/unfav numbers. Particularly Conway's. That's some unusually partisan judgment.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2010, 02:01:05 PM »

Wait, I thought people were saying Rand Paul was finished after those vicious racist remarks he made on Rachel Madcow? Even Daily Kos still has him leading, haha.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2010, 02:09:19 PM »

Wait, I thought people were saying Rand Paul was finished after those vicious racist remarks he made on Rachel Madcow? Even Daily Kos still has him leading, haha.

If you look at the crosstabs, Paul's favorables among independents and Democrats has fallen, while his racist comments have seemingly fired up the base, making up for it with increased favorability amongst Republicans.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2010, 02:11:16 PM »

Wow, Paul's lead is down to 4? I must have missed something. Tongue Better go catch up!
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2010, 02:11:30 PM »

Seems like only Democrats care about the civil rights thing. Which is pretty much to be expected in Kentucky.
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2010, 02:17:22 PM »

Wow, Paul's lead is down to 4? I must have missed something. Tongue Better go catch up!

The last Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, taken before he even won the primary, had Paul leading Conway by 3 points.

Evidently, after all the media brouhaha, nothing much has changed.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2010, 02:27:11 PM »

Seems like only Democrats care about the civil rights thing. Which is pretty much to be expected in Kentucky.

Howard Feinman said Paul's candidacy would suffer only if people perceived he was embarrassing Kentucky before the rest of the country.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2010, 02:28:58 PM »

Depressing, but at least it's close.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2010, 02:36:19 PM »

Depressing, but at least it's close.

I feel as if Rand needs at least two additional major stumbles, well-timed, for Conway to have a shot at it.
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2010, 02:40:17 PM »

Evidently, after all the media brouhaha, nothing much has changed.

DailyKos was kind enough to poll the health care issue too, by the way:

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That's why Paul still leads, and that's why he's still the favorite in November. Conway is screwed on the issues that will actually be bringing people out to the polls. No one is going to be voting in 2010 based on a 1964 bill. (And those who are weren't going to vote for a Republican like Rand Paul anyway.)

Seems like only Democrats care about the civil rights thing. Which is pretty much to be expected in Kentucky.

Howard Feinman said Paul's candidacy would suffer only if people perceived he was embarrassing Kentucky before the rest of the country.

Will Kentucky be embarrassed by the national exposure, or resentful of the national media? Did public opinion of the Arizona law change because of the national exposure?
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2010, 02:47:11 PM »

Oh, the front page on DailyKos says the race is 44-40, but the crosstabs say 44-41.

I'm inclined to believe the crosstabs, but this could use some clarification.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2010, 02:48:07 PM »

I'm surprised that people still consider Rand Paul as a shoo-in for election.
There is a reason why McConnel and national Republicans rallied against him in the primary, and why people like David Frum and Jim Geraghty aren't too bullish about his chances in November.
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« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2010, 03:01:57 PM »

I'm surprised that people still consider Rand Paul as a shoo-in for election.
There is a reason why McConnel and national Republicans rallied against him in the primary, and why people like David Frum and Jim Geraghty aren't too bullish about his chances in November.

The reason why those "national Republicans" rallied against him was because they are scared neocons and they wanted their subservient puppet Grayson rather than loose cannon Paul.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2010, 03:03:29 PM »

The guy who wants Guantanamo to stay open and feels the Congress should not be able to tell the President what to do in Afghanistan and Iraq is not a Neocon???
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2010, 03:06:36 PM »

Will Kentucky be embarrassed by the national exposure, or resentful of the national media? Did public opinion of the Arizona law change because of the national exposure?

I suppose it's a question of whether Paul plays into stereotypes in a way that embarrasses voters, or in a way that makes them rally around him. This would depend on how effectively he protects his own dignity.
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2010, 03:10:01 PM »

Will Kentucky be embarrassed by the national exposure, or resentful of the national media? Did public opinion of the Arizona law change because of the national exposure?

I suppose it's a question of whether Paul plays into stereotypes in a way that embarrasses voters, or in a way that makes them rally around him. This would depend on how effectively he protects his own dignity.

I would certainly expect someone like Paul to dig in his heels and not waffle on his beliefs no matter what the public opinion of him is. That should help his cause, I think.
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« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2010, 03:11:30 PM »

The guy who wants Guantanamo to stay open and feels the Congress should not be able to tell the President what to do in Afghanistan and Iraq is not a Neocon???
Paul has yet to serve in any political office, so it is impossible to know exactly what sort of positions he will take. It is understandable that he will have to espouse some unfortunate views in order to get elected in an authoritarian state like Kentucky.

He is up against radical authoritarian Jack Conway now, after all.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2010, 03:39:31 PM »

I'm surprised that people still consider Rand Paul as a shoo-in for election.
There is a reason why McConnel and national Republicans rallied against him in the primary, and why people like David Frum and Jim Geraghty aren't too bullish about his chances in November.

The reason why those "national Republicans" rallied against him was because they are scared neocons and they wanted their subservient puppet Grayson rather than loose cannon Paul.

Thanks for agreeing with me.
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« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2010, 03:51:04 PM »

I'm surprised that people still consider Rand Paul as a shoo-in for election.
There is a reason why McConnel and national Republicans rallied against him in the primary, and why people like David Frum and Jim Geraghty aren't too bullish about his chances in November.

The reason why those "national Republicans" rallied against him was because they are scared neocons and they wanted their subservient puppet Grayson rather than loose cannon Paul.

Thanks for agreeing with me.

No, I disagreed with you. They feared Paul over ideology not over electability.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2010, 03:56:58 PM »

The guy who wants Guantanamo to stay open and feels the Congress should not be able to tell the President what to do in Afghanistan and Iraq is not a Neocon???
Paul has yet to serve in any political office, so it is impossible to know exactly what sort of positions he will take. It is understandable that he will have to espouse some unfortunate views in order to get elected in an authoritarian state like Kentucky.

He is up against radical authoritarian Jack Conway now, after all.

Do you have any proof that he does not actually hold these views?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2010, 03:59:18 PM »

The guy who wants Guantanamo to stay open and feels the Congress should not be able to tell the President what to do in Afghanistan and Iraq is not a Neocon???
Paul has yet to serve in any political office, so it is impossible to know exactly what sort of positions he will take. It is understandable that he will have to espouse some unfortunate views in order to get elected in an authoritarian state like Kentucky.

He is up against radical authoritarian Jack Conway now, after all.

Do you have any proof that he does not actually hold these views?

Does it even matter? I wouldn't expect a flip flop on any of those issues once elected.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2010, 04:04:12 PM »

The guy who wants Guantanamo to stay open and feels the Congress should not be able to tell the President what to do in Afghanistan and Iraq is not a Neocon???
Paul has yet to serve in any political office, so it is impossible to know exactly what sort of positions he will take. It is understandable that he will have to espouse some unfortunate views in order to get elected in an authoritarian state like Kentucky.

He is up against radical authoritarian Jack Conway now, after all.

Do you have any proof that he does not actually hold these views?

There is no proof one way or the other considering he has never held elected office before.

Since I don't live in Kentucky, it's not an issue I'm going to be faced with in November.
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2010, 04:32:53 PM »

So are we to assume the Rasmussen poll that had Paul leading Conway 59%-34% a fluke or something? Research 2000's polling didn't really change that much after Rand Paul's dreadful first week.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2010, 04:45:58 PM »

Even Chuck Todd acknowledges that Ras has a very bad month and that their numbers are "atrocious".
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2010, 04:59:19 PM »

So are we to assume the Rasmussen poll that had Paul leading Conway 59%-34% a fluke or something? Research 2000's polling didn't really change that much after Rand Paul's dreadful first week.

Well whoever put the poll title "Kos: Paul's lead down to 3 pt" clearly had an agenda, considering it's the same margin Kos had last time.
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