Change and Trends

[Derek]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_hawaii_congress

How you like that Obama? Now that's change.

[Shilly]

And it begins ...

[Bo]

Big deal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL. The guy actually got less than 40% of the votes, and the democrat vote was split in two. What an amazing "victory"...

[Joe Republic]

Ah, good ol' mainstream media.  Taking the 'ournal' out of 'journalism' for decades...

[RichmondFalls]

So now some dude getting 39 percent of the vote is newsworthy? That's awesome.

[hcallega]

This is Dan Inouye's fault actually. He embraced the other Democrat (not Ed Case) and the White House/DNC/DCCC didn't want to piss him him off. Also, this is probably going to be a seat that we'll take back in November, and he'll probably vote like a liberal for the time being.

[Derek]

LOL. The guy actually got less than 40% of the votes, and the democrat vote was split in two. What an amazing "victory"...

That is true so we'll see in November.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So now some dude getting 39 percent of the vote is newsworthy? That's awesome.

The Republican 40-59 win in HI-01 matches their 41-59 majority in the Senate quite well.

[Bo]

This is Dan Inouye's fault actually. He embraced the other Democrat (not Ed Case) and the White House/DNC/DCCC didn't want to piss him him off. Also, this is probably going to be a seat that we'll take back in November, and he'll probably vote like a liberal for the time being.

No. It's the DCCC's fault for supporting case when Hawaii Dems wanted Hanubasa.

[memphis]

So now some dude getting 39 percent of the vote is newsworthy? That's awesome.

The Republican 40-59 win in HI-01 matches their 41-59 majority in the Senate quite well.

As does the fact they they effectively control it.

[Derek]

Why can't it just be how it was? Why does there always have to be catch or excuse for the dems losing?

[Mechaman]

Why can't it just be how it was? Why does there always have to be catch or excuse for the dems losing?

Sorry guy but Hawaii is EXTREMELY liberal place.  Do I think this guy might have a chance to get elected in November? Sure, from my perspective the only way the GOP can go between now and November, BARRING A MAJOR CLUSTERF is up, however reality is he's in a precarious situation.

[Mr.Phips]

This was a fluke that will almost certainly be reversed in November when there is only one Democratic candidate.

[Bo]

This was a fluke that will almost certainly be reversed in November when there is only one Democratic candidate.

Will the MA Senate fluke also be reversed in 2012?

[Derek]

Why can't it just be how it was? Why does there always have to be catch or excuse for the dems losing?

Sorry guy but Hawaii is EXTREMELY liberal place.  Do I think this guy might have a chance to get elected in November? Sure, from my perspective the only way the GOP can go between now and November, BARRING A MAJOR CLUSTERF is up, however reality is he's in a precarious situation.

Yes I know that although the numbers were inflated due to Obama in 2008 that's a 60-40 default state to the left at best.

[Derek]

This was a fluke that will almost certainly be reversed in November when there is only one Democratic candidate.

Will the MA Senate fluke also be reversed in 2012?

Good question. That will depend on the national mood and Scott Brown's voting record. Brown has it rough because he's stuck between his party and state.

[Mr.Phips]

This was a fluke that will almost certainly be reversed in November when there is only one Democratic candidate.

Will the MA Senate fluke also be reversed in 2012?

Brown is in better shape because he actually won a majority of the vote.  Still, he probably has a less than 50/50 chance of being reelected with Obama on the ballot.

[HAnnA MArin County]

The Republican/Tea Party has already thrown Scott Brown under the bus. He'll be out in 2012, of course, but it won't be because Obama will be on top of the ticket (O isn't really all that popular in Massachusetts. He lost it in the primary, the swing to him was negligible in 2008, and he didn't really have any coattails for Martha Coakley); it will give the Democrats time to find another candidate "better" than Martha. Hopefully this time they won't take the seat for granted.

As for the win in Hawaii, any generic Democrat will win the seat back in November. It's Hawaii, and a district that native son Obama won with 70 percent of the vote. That'd be like if there was a two-way Republican race in Wyoming and the Democrat squeaked by in a plurality, I would say the same thing, that the seat would flip back GOP just because it's Wyoming.

As for Obama, yeah, it appears that all of his endorsements are toxic. Buyer's remorse, Democrats?

[Bo]

The Republican/Tea Party has already thrown Scott Brown under the bus. He'll be out in 2012, of course, but it won't be because Obama will be on top of the ticket (O isn't really all that popular in Massachusetts. He lost it in the primary, the swing to him was negligible in 2008, and he didn't really have any coattails for Martha Coakley); it will give the Democrats time to find another candidate "better" than Martha. Hopefully this time they won't take the seat for granted.

As for the win in Hawaii, any generic Democrat will win the seat back in November. It's Hawaii, and a district that native son Obama won with 70 percent of the vote. That'd be like if there was a two-way Republican race in Wyoming and the Democrat squeaked by in a plurality, I would say the same thing, that the seat would flip back GOP just because it's Wyoming.

As for Obama, yeah, it appears that all of his endorsements are toxic. Buyer's remorse, Democrats?

To be fair, Bush Jr. won 47% in HI-01 in 2004. And even if Obama isn't super-popular in MA, he will get at least 60% of the vote in MA even in a relatively bad year. Thus, he should have enough coattails for a strong Democrat to defeat Brown. As for buyer's remorse, I admit that Hillary would have probably been a better President.

[Derek]

The Republican/Tea Party has already thrown Scott Brown under the bus. He'll be out in 2012, of course, but it won't be because Obama will be on top of the ticket (O isn't really all that popular in Massachusetts. He lost it in the primary, the swing to him was negligible in 2008, and he didn't really have any coattails for Martha Coakley); it will give the Democrats time to find another candidate "better" than Martha. Hopefully this time they won't take the seat for granted.

As for the win in Hawaii, any generic Democrat will win the seat back in November. It's Hawaii, and a district that native son Obama won with 70 percent of the vote. That'd be like if there was a two-way Republican race in Wyoming and the Democrat squeaked by in a plurality, I would say the same thing, that the seat would flip back GOP just because it's Wyoming.

As for Obama, yeah, it appears that all of his endorsements are toxic. Buyer's remorse, Democrats?

They haven't run him under the bus and I'm not sure what you're getting at by saying that other than pumping up the democrats to think so. Scott Brown is stuck between his party and his state because they are naturally at odds. He may lose in 2012 but I wouldn't expect much different coming out of Massachusetts. What Scott Brown has done though is build a start to the career of a fine young candidate.

[Vepres]

Except everybody keeps saying Hawaii is very pro-incumbent, so...

[Derek]

Except everybody keeps saying Hawaii is very pro-incumbent, so...

It's the year of the elephant for sure. Obama has lost 5 incumbant democrats so far. Now that's change.

[hcallega]

As far as MA goes, it depends on the Democratic nominee. Brown ran a hell of a campaign, and the problem with MA Democrats is that many of them are ridiculously qualified and ridiculously horrible campaigners. The candidate that I hope runs is Michael Capuano, who is used to tough races. After all he came back against two far more well known candidates in his race for congress the first time around, and I think that he can definitely beat Brown in South Boston and other Reagan Democrat counties.