AR: Rasmussen: Boozeman leads Halter and Lincoln

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-05-19

Summary: D: 33%, R: 60%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tuck!]

lmfao

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rasmussen is a respected pollster.

 

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

I think that Boozman is the favorite regardless of who comes out of the primary in this race. The last Mason-Dixon showed that Boozman was beating Halter.  The dynamics haven't changed regardless of who wins the Democratic primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think that Boozeman is the favorite regardless of who comes out of the primary in this race. The last Mason-Dixon showed that Boozeman was beating Halter.  The dynamics haven't changed regardless of who wins the Democratic primary.

The problem isn't that Boozman is ahead. Everybody shows him leading the Dems, usually by double digits.
But beating an incumbent by 38 points (when in real life no incumbent has lost by more than 18 in the last 30+ years) stretches credulity to ridiculous extremes.
 

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

I would go with the Kos poll of nine points, but Halter is only marginally better than Lincoln, he isn't a sure bet to beat Boozeman either.

[Lief 🐋]

I have no doubt that both Lincoln and Halter are currently down to this Boozman character, and no matter who we nominate, we'll probably lose the seat, but the idea that he's leading by 35 points is just ridiculous.

[Brittain33]

I have no doubt that both Lincoln and Halter are currently down to this Boozman character, and no matter who we nominate, we'll probably lose the seat, but the idea that he's leading by 35 points is just ridiculous.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Taniel from Campaign Diaries tweets after this poll:

http://twitter.com/Taniel/status/14440607571

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Calm down, please. This is a post-primary bump for Drunkmale and a primary-related-depression for the Democrats (who were already way down in the polls here anyway). Voters do not like factional infighting. It's unlikely that this situation will last all that long, but Drunkmale will obviously win comfortably unless he fouls up big time.

[Sam Spade]

Calm down, please. This is a post-primary bump for Drunkmale and a primary-related-depression for the Democrats (who were already way down in the polls here anyway). Voters do not like factional infighting. It's unlikely that this situation will last all that long, but Drunkmale will obviously win comfortably unless he fouls up big time.

Posts like this obviously need to be moderated.

[Eraserhead]

Lincoln is losing 66-28? Haha, is that even possible in a state like Arkansas?

[Badger]

Calm down, please. This is a post-primary bump for Drunkmale and a primary-related-depression for the Democrats (who were already way down in the polls here anyway). Voters do not like factional infighting. It's unlikely that this situation will last all that long, but Drunkmale will obviously win comfortably unless he fouls up big time.

But even generously accounting for all this Al, these numbers still go laughably beyond MoE.

I haven't bought into the narrative of Rassy being a GOP spinmeister, and to a lesser degree have been skeptical about them morphing into near SV or Zogby level incompetents.

Until now. Even if this is a mere 1 in 20, I'm going to have great difficulty giving Scotty much more credence then SV for the immediate future.

For the time being, in my book they've jumped the shark.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So it seems pretty certain that the numbers will not be as bad for the Democrats as this poll suggests. Still, losing is losing. If the Democratic candidate loses by 15% rather than 35%, it makes no substantive difference at the end of the day.

[Badger]

    So it seems pretty certain that the numbers will not be as bad for the Democrats as this poll suggests. Still, losing is losing. If the Democratic candidate loses by 15% rather than 35%, it makes no substantive difference at the end of the day.

True, but if that suggests most other recent Rassmussen polls were substanially off also....

It may not make a difference in AR, but other states?

[bgwah]

Calm down, please. This is a post-primary bump for Drunkmale and a primary-related-depression for the Democrats (who were already way down in the polls here anyway). Voters do not like factional infighting. It's unlikely that this situation will last all that long, but Drunkmale will obviously win comfortably unless he fouls up big time.

Posts like this obviously need to be moderated.

I wouldn't mind a policy of moderating painfully unfunny posts...

[Marokai Backbeat]

Seriously, Rasmussen?

Seriously?

[Ronnie]

I'm getting to the conclusion that all polls are BS.

[Lunar]

Rasmussen is to polling what the New York Post is to journalism.  Even though the NYP has some of the most respected reporters in New York (like Fred Dicker), it's still a tabloid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But even generously accounting for all this Al, these numbers still go laughably beyond MoE.

I don't think they're an accurate reflection of what will happen in November either. But it's entirely possible that these figure are, nonetheless, genuine (as far as any poll figures can be so). Serious questions can be asked about the timing though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Santorum's worst poll if I recall was 33%-57% if I recall correctly. I would say this one is pretty far out there.