Why has Tennessee become so Republican?

[Derek]

Tennesse reflects the southern trends well historically. It was a haven for the southern democrats between the civil war and WWII. After that the democrats went from being about states' rights to being made up of unions, minorities, and hippies, none of which are conservative or would be likely to support notions such as states' rights or traditional values OVER THEIR CAUSES. Clinton and Carter were from the south so it was different for them. Clinton would've likely lost TN both times without Perot running though. So as social conservatives trended more and more Republican, Tennessee became more Republican.

Tennessee is traditionally more Republican than the rest of its Southern neighbors, especially in the GOP's base in eastern Tennessee, which has voted Republican since the Civil War.

That is true. Even in southern democrat era Tennessee was more Republican than its counterparts, but my point was more that the democrats of those days would be the Republicans of today. I'm not sure where the Republicans of that era would fit in. I would have been a democrat until Reagan, but would've started voting Republican in Presidential Elections with Eisenhower with the exceptions of Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1996.

Tennessee voted for Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower, and Nixon at times when the Democratic Party still dominated most of the South.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Ignorant redneck conservatives embracing the religious right.

[Derek]

liberal leftist socialists embracing the European left

[memphis]

The problem for Democrats here is that the state has become increasingly suburban.  Rural areas in the center and Northwest of the state that used to give Democrats big margins are growing more and more suburban and voting heavily Republican. 

Finally some decent analysis in this thread; indeed, Obama induced a massive swing among older and rural voters, but the the overall movement towards the GOP in TN has to do with the conservative suburbs.  Rural and older voters will vote for a conservative Democrat, but suburbanites won't.  Memphis pioneered white flight.  Thus, the Democrats, in order to win, have to forge a coalition that carries both Shelby and Davidson counties and the rural/small town areas.  This is extremely difficult, and it doesn't help that naive or corrupt politicians have been running the state Democratic party into the ground since the days of Kefauver and Crump.

Are you high? The strongest swings were in the Tennessee Valley. Not suburbia by any stretch of the imagination. Williamson and Rutherford, the two most populous suburban counties in Tennessee swung toward Obama.

[phk]

Approaching from a sort of a "asset valuation" perspective.

Any GOP movement in

1) Tennessee
2) Arkansas

is a correction and not a trend.

It was voting overly D given whats going on and now its what it should be.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Ignorant redneck conservatives embracing the religious right.

That's a large part of it, but I don't think Tennessee swung GOP this year because of race alone because if you look at 2006, Harold Ford Jr. almost won the open U.S. Senate seat and he won a significant number of these rural counties that swung so far away from Obama. Even in the primary, these rural counties went solidly and strongly for Hillary (she may actually have won Tennessee seeing as how it went both times for Bill). I don't know; it's an intriguing phenomenon. I think the Southernization of the Republican Party is helping Tennessee become redder in its political leanings, and in the rural areas, I'm sure the GOP's scare tactics of using God guns and gays to get their base out probably works wonders.

Lake County, the small county in the northwestern part of the state, is interesting as well because as far back as I can tell, it has gone Democratic except for this year. I believe that's Tiptonville, if memory serves me correctly.

[Derek]

Ignorant redneck conservatives embracing the religious right.

That's a large part of it, but I don't think Tennessee swung GOP this year because of race alone because if you look at 2006, Harold Ford Jr. almost won the open U.S. Senate seat and he won a significant number of these rural counties that swung so far away from Obama. Even in the primary, these rural counties went solidly and strongly for Hillary (she may actually have won Tennessee seeing as how it went both times for Bill). I don't know; it's an intriguing phenomenon. I think the Southernization of the Republican Party is helping Tennessee become redder in its political leanings, and in the rural areas, I'm sure the GOP's scare tactics of using God guns and gays to get their base out probably works wonders.

Lake County, the small county in the northwestern part of the state, is interesting as well because as far back as I can tell, it has gone Democratic except for this year. I believe that's Tiptonville, if memory serves me correctly.

If McCain was smarter, then he would've won PA by continuously playing Obama's racial slurs about whites who cling to their guns and religions in PA. I am a western PA native and I will always cling to God and my guns. Come get them because I'll be waiting.

[phk]

Ignorant redneck conservatives embracing the religious right.

That's a large part of it, but I don't think Tennessee swung GOP this year because of race alone because if you look at 2006, Harold Ford Jr. almost won the open U.S. Senate seat and he won a significant number of these rural counties that swung so far away from Obama. Even in the primary, these rural counties went solidly and strongly for Hillary (she may actually have won Tennessee seeing as how it went both times for Bill). I don't know; it's an intriguing phenomenon. I think the Southernization of the Republican Party is helping Tennessee become redder in its political leanings, and in the rural areas, I'm sure the GOP's scare tactics of using God guns and gays to get their base out probably works wonders.

Lake County, the small county in the northwestern part of the state, is interesting as well because as far back as I can tell, it has gone Democratic except for this year. I believe that's Tiptonville, if memory serves me correctly.

Tenn. was overly D in the past. It's somewhat where it should be now. Same with Arkansas.

[War on Want]

At the local/state level it is trending Republican because of suburbs and the final exodus(hopefully) of rural white voters away from the Democrats. I'm guessing that the TNV areas are going to stay Democratic for the next few decades but that should begin to change too.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

It's interesting they found Gore good enough to be a Senator, but not a President.

[Derek]

Gore was elected to the senate in 1984 and 1990 though. That's an eternity in politics.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Gore was elected to the senate in 1984 and 1990 though. That's an eternity in politics.

I guess 8 years of him being VP turned them?

[Derek]

No 30 years of the Democrats moving to the left on social issues turned them and 2000 was the breaking point. Clinton won by about a point both times.

[Marokai Backbeat]

No 30 years of the Democrats moving to the left on social issues turned them and 2000 was the breaking point. Clinton won by about a point both times.

What are you talking about, exactly? Clinton never won Tennessee just by a point either time he ran for President and in his entire electoral history in Arkansas I see nothing to suggest he won anything by a point either. So what on earth are you referencing?

[phk]

No 30 years of the Democrats moving to the left on social issues turned them and 2000 was the breaking point. Clinton won by about a point both times.

What are you talking about, exactly? Clinton never won Tennessee just by a point either time he ran for President and in his entire electoral history in Arkansas I see nothing to suggest he won anything by a point either. So what on earth are you referencing?

Interesting that Bill Clinton got a higher % in Tenn than Al Gore did.

But it was just overly D in the past, its more or less corrected. No trend whatsoever.

[Conservative frontier]

Social Conservatism is spreading throughout the GOP. And Gingrch's influence.

[Derek]

No 30 years of the Democrats moving to the left on social issues turned them and 2000 was the breaking point. Clinton won by about a point both times.

What are you talking about, exactly? Clinton never won Tennessee just by a point either time he ran for President and in his entire electoral history in Arkansas I see nothing to suggest he won anything by a point either. So what on earth are you referencing?

Clinton didn't win by much and never broke 47%. It's very difficult to trace trends over the last quarter of the 20th century due to the Reagan and Bush 88 landslide. TN also voted for Nixon in 1960 and even for Eisenhower once so to say it was overwhelmingly democratic is incorrect. It's been overwhelming conservative on social issues.

[phk]

Excluding outliers (where Democrats got below 30%). The average share of the D vote from Elections spanning 1960 to 2008 w/o 1972 and 1968.

515.42 / 11 = 46.8563636%
Max: 55.94% in 1976
Min: 41.55% in 1988

With 2008 being around 5% below the 48 year average.

In a 50-50 election, it will likely end up anywhere from (.41,.45].

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What are you talking about, exactly? Clinton never won Tennessee just by a point either time he ran for President and in his entire electoral history in Arkansas I see nothing to suggest he won anything by a point either. So what on earth are you referencing?
[/quote]

Clinton didn't win by much and never broke 47%. It's very difficult to trace trends over the last quarter of the 20th century due to the Reagan and Bush 88 landslide. TN also voted for Nixon in 1960 and even for Eisenhower once so to say it was overwhelmingly democratic is incorrect. It's been overwhelming conservative on social issues.
[/quote]

Clinton broke 47% both times. Though not by much, but he did better than 47% both times.

[Derek]

Tennessee 1952-2008

1952- Eisenhower
1956- Eisenhower
1960- Nixon (who lost as a Republican)
1964- Johnson
1968- Nixon
1972- Nixon
1976- Carter
1980- Reagan
1984- Reagan
1988- Bush
1992- Clinton
1996- Clinton
2000- Bush
2004- Bush (overwhelmingly)
2008- McCain (lost as a Republican)

Now you can see that in modern day history TN has never voted for a democrat who last and 2 republicans have carried it despite losing the election. It used to be a bellwether state and throughout the 2000's moved to the right. There isn't a presidential election other than Carter where the democrat candidate won by a landslide. Yes, like any other state south of the Mason Dixon they supported Jimmy Carter more than in other states.

[phk]

Tennessee 1952-2008

1952- Eisenhower
1956- Eisenhower
1960- Nixon (who lost as a Republican)
1964- Johnson
1968- Nixon
1972- Nixon
1976- Carter
1980- Reagan
1984- Reagan
1988- Bush
1992- Clinton
1996- Clinton
2000- Bush
2004- Bush (overwhelmingly)
2008- McCain (lost as a Republican)

Now you can see that in modern day history TN has never voted for a democrat who last and 2 republicans have carried it despite losing the election. It used to be a bellwether state and throughout the 2000's moved to the right. There isn't a presidential election other than Carter where the democrat candidate won by a landslide. Yes, like any other state south of the Mason Dixon they supported Jimmy Carter more than in other states.

Yep. Historically on average it is a Republican state, it just is willing to vote for a Democrat that is from the region.

[Derek]

Idk what's so hard to understand about it either lol. I think alot is being over analyzed for Tennessee on here.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I don't think Tennessee is doing trending Republican. Look at what will probably happen this November: the GOP stands very likely to pick up the Governor's Mansion as well as two, possibly three, U.S. House seats (TN-04, TN-06 and TN-08) and will probably expand their majorities in the state legislature. After November 2010, I think it will be safe to officially label Tennessee as a red state.

[Derek]

I don't think Tennessee is doing trending Republican. Look at what will probably happen this November: the GOP stands very likely to pick up the Governor's Mansion as well as two, possibly three, U.S. House seats (TN-04, TN-06 and TN-08) and will probably expand their majorities in the state legislature. After November 2010, I think it will be safe to officially label Tennessee as a red state.

What do you mean it's not trending Republican then?