If George Allen won the 2006 VA race, Would he have won in 2012?

[538Electoral]

If Allen won by less than 1% in 2006, I'd be able to imagine that Obama's coattails would allow a Democrat to beat an incumbent Allen in 2012.

If Allen won by a few points, I'd say he probably holds on (narrowly) in 2012 and I don't think he would've run in 2018 and the Democrats win by 8 points.

[brucejoel99]

I can't see him holding on in 2012, no.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

[KaiserDave]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

He probably loses by more than Romney

[brucejoel99]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

He probably loses by more than Romney

Actually, if Allen's in the race & cuts into Huckabee's vote total, then his presence can probably propel Romney to victory in Iowa. So, in this scenario, perhaps it's Romney who gets the nomination.

[KaiserDave]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

He probably loses by more than Romney

Actually, if Allen's in the race & cuts into Huckabee's vote total, then his presence can probably propel Romney to victory in Iowa. So, in this scenario, perhaps it's Romney who gets the nomination.

Oh I meant if he was the nominee in 2012 compared to how Romney did in 2012

[538Electoral]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

He probably loses by more than Romney

Actually, if Allen's in the race & cuts into Huckabee's vote total, then his presence can probably propel Romney to victory in Iowa. So, in this scenario, perhaps it's Romney who gets the nomination.

Oh I meant if he was the nominee in 2012 compared to how Romney did in 2012

I honestly think VA and FL would've flipped with Allen as the nominee. Still loses but does better with 248 electoral votes.

[dw93]

He was seen as a rising start in the mid to late 2000s. If he beats Jim Webb, it's likely (barring a gaffe, which was his undoing to begin with) he'd be the nominee for President in 2008 or at the very least running mate to McCain or Romney should one of them get it instead. If he's not on the ticket in 2008, he chooses to either run for re election to the Senate or run for President. I can't see him doing both and no matter what path he chooses, he likely is out of a job come January 2013 (especially if he goes for the Presidency).

[MIKESOWELL]

If he had eked out a win over Jim Webb in 2006, I agree with a prior poster that he may have ran for president in 2008, but I get the feeling that he was destined to have something derail his presidential ambitions, most likely some type of racial allegations. Anyways, I feel that if nothing did pop up he'd be a runner up to McCain and be the Veep nominee and perhaps he'd help Virginia stay in the GOP column for one more election cycle.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

He probably loses by more than Romney

Actually, if Allen's in the race & cuts into Huckabee's vote total, then his presence can probably propel Romney to victory in Iowa. So, in this scenario, perhaps it's Romney who gets the nomination.

Possibly, but the problem for Romney is that Allen's base is similar to that of Fred Thompson's potential base (ie Conservative) suburbs, places like Atlanta metro that Romney ended up winning would almost certainly unite behind Allen. Thompson turned out to be a dud and later just a stalking horse for McCain to cut into Huckabee's support in Iowa and South Carolina.

Allen's collapse is what made possible Romney's opening as the "Conservative/Non-Populist" alternative to the McCain/Rudy. Allen takes Romney's base in most places and yes eats into Huckabee's support and probably ends up the nominee.

Remember Huckabee attacked the Club for Growth, said Bush had a bunker mentality on Iraq, openly talked about casting off fiscal conservatives from the coalition, had raised taxes as Governor of Arkansas and also passed instate tuition for illegals. Romney was not in a position to credibly nuke Huckabee owing to his own background in business and in Massachusetts. Allen, had no such problems.

That said, Allen would have had a big problem in a general election and I said it at the time to anyone who would listen, that the only way the GOP would retain the White House was with a businessman/non-Washington insider (no ties to Bush), who is seen as being culturally northern instead of Southern. We didn't talk in terms of non-college and college whites back then, it was just Northern and Southern, socially moderate and religious conservative, but ironically that same criteria that at the time pointed to Romney, accounts for Trump as well. The next GOP President was indeed a Businessman, from New York, with no political experience or ties to Bush.

Allen would have doubled down on the Southernization of the GOP, he literally wrapped himself in the confederate flag, and had voted with Bush 99% of the time. In a way, Allen's self-destruction was one that I welcomed at the time because it saved the GOP from a disaster waiting to happen, and I was already aware of Romney and was rooting for him to succeed.

[Lechasseur]

I can't see him holding on in 2012, no.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

I would say he would be possibly the Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012

Quite possibly yeah

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Allen would barely win re-election in 2012 due to incumbency advantage, and then get destroyed at the ballot box if he sought re-election in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, due to fact Boehner was polarizing Speaker and he didnt want to compromise with Obama, and he contributed to Romney losing

[Left Wing]

Not against Kaine. But if Kaine decided not to challenge an incumbent he could probably hold on.

[Lechasseur]

Not against Kaine. But if Kaine decided not to challenge an incumbent he could probably hold on.

Agreed

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Allen is a...fickle and interesting figure in Virginia Politics. He was the end of an era for GOP Dominance of the state as it started to turn Blue with only Gilmore and McDonnell having been Elected as the only Republican Governors since then compared to the 4 Democratic Governors of the last 20 years alone. He's a paper tiger when you take everything into consideration. He seems strong and looks like the best choice for the job, but he's easily prone to gaffes and could easily fall apart. Any hopes of winning would be a bare chance in 2012 and would be dependent on the GOP Nominee winning the state/the Election unless the Democrats manage to mess-up badly with the race some-how despite having a stellar bench for that race.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Allen had won in 2006 he would have been on John McCain's short list, and may well have been McCain's VP nominee.  Had a McCain/Allen ticket won, Allen would be in the Presidential mix today.  Had that ticket lost, Allen would have definitely run in 2012, and would have run from a position of strength.  He would be running from a swing state that the GOP needed to win back.

If he had not been McCain's running mate, Allen would have run in 2012, but he would have been seen as a guy who was running for President because he couldn't get re-elected.  There have been a number of candidates in that position.  Mayor John V. Lindsay (D, 1972), Sen. Fred Harris (D, 1972), Rep. Bob Dornan (R, 1996), Sen. John Edwards (D, 2004), Gov. Mitt Romney (R, 2008), and possibly others are examples of folks who ran for President because they didn't believe that they could be reelected.  Only Romney ran while a non-incumbent, having opted not to run two years before the 2008 election.  I can't think of a single candidate who ran for President to avoid the oblivion that would come with a re-election defeat that ended up saving their career by that route.

[beaver2.0]

I could see him winning or losing narrowly.