PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak

[Smash255]

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.

Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

Agreed, while it won't be quite the same margins as Sestak won't do quite as well as Casey in the T & portions of the west, this has the makings of 2006 all over again in the SE.   Toomey is going to get utterly obliterated there, and he simply wont be able to recover from those margins. 

[Smash255]

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Pretty much agree.  I use to have this argument with Phil all the time.   No one Republican or Democrat has won statewide in decades (perhaps ever) without winning suburban Philly.   Now with some of the gains the GOP has made out west perhaps they can afford to lose suburban Philly and still win statewide.  However, they at least need to be able to put up a fight there and be competitive.   Toomey can't and would get mauled there, especially against Sestak, and the margins would be just too much to overcome.