PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak

[sg0508]

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

[sg0508]

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.

Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

[sg0508]

Toomey will lose this race going away.  He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).

How is Toomey a 100% misfit?  Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far.  To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.

Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000.  He was bombed in 2006.  Watch and learn.  Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.

Still, if Specter survives the primary (still close to a 50% chance of that), I'd give Toomey a better than 50% chance of winning the general.

My speculation is that Specter loses the primary, which is probably not what the GOP banked on. They planned on facing Specter.  From what I understand from friends in PA, Sestak is a stronger opponent than some give him credit for.

[sg0508]

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

[sg0508]

It really depends on how good Toomey is. If he really sucks as a campaigner then Sestak will roll him but if Toomey proves to be a good candidate then it will be a fight. Let us remember that when Specter ditched the GOP Toomey strategically began to move to the center especially with his comments on Abortion and other issues. The guy isn't some knee jerk ideologue otherwise he wouldn't have done that.

It also depends on what issues dominate the campaign. Obamacare is opposed by I think 10% or slightly lower margin in PA, and Cap-n-Trade won't exactly fly out in Western/Northeastern PA. Some of Sestak's votes would certainly help Toomey in areas of PA.

As for the Philly burbs, if Abortion dominates the debate then yes, Toomey would get crushed, but in this environmment I don't see that happening, Economy, taxes, Deficits, Healthcare, Cap-n-Trade, and Immigration will all be bigger issues. And then it goes back to how good Toomey is at forming a winning message and sticking to it. Lets not forget, that Toomey has been leading for the better part of a year now in PA against both Specter and Sestak, that he was leading at all in PA, is somewhat of a miracle in and of itself.

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Sestak is by far harder to beat then Specter, but lets not underestimate Toomey here either. He finally has his shot and I don't see him letting Sestak take this away from him without a big fight.

We'll see what Toomey starts to talk about in this campaign.  If abortion starts to become his focal point, forget it.  The race will be over by August.  Jerry Kilgore of VA clearly didn't get that though and he lost in VA in one of the worst campaigns I can ever remember.   After the primary run against Specter in 2004, I have no faith that he will run a more effective campaign this time.  In the end, he needs to show independents and democrats why they should support him.  Let's see if he understands that.