PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak (user search)
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  PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA: Rasmussen: Toomey crushes Specter but a tie against Sestak  (Read 2775 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
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« on: May 15, 2010, 02:09:06 PM »

It really depends on how good Toomey is. If he really sucks as a campaigner then Sestak will roll him but if Toomey proves to be a good candidate then it will be a fight. Let us remember that when Specter ditched the GOP Toomey strategically began to move to the center especially with his comments on Abortion and other issues. The guy isn't some knee jerk ideologue otherwise he wouldn't have done that.

It also depends on what issues dominate the campaign. Obamacare is opposed by I think 10% or slightly lower margin in PA, and Cap-n-Trade won't exactly fly out in Western/Northeastern PA. Some of Sestak's votes would certainly help Toomey in areas of PA.

As for the Philly burbs, if Abortion dominates the debate then yes, Toomey would get crushed, but in this environmment I don't see that happening, Economy, taxes, Deficits, Healthcare, Cap-n-Trade, and Immigration will all be bigger issues. And then it goes back to how good Toomey is at forming a winning message and sticking to it. Lets not forget, that Toomey has been leading for the better part of a year now in PA against both Specter and Sestak, that he was leading at all in PA, is somewhat of a miracle in and of itself.

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania. 

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Sestak is by far harder to beat then Specter, but lets not underestimate Toomey here either. He finally has his shot and I don't see him letting Sestak take this away from him without a big fight.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 54,123
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2010, 09:59:23 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2010, 10:55:54 PM by Senator North Carolina Yankee (AFL-CIO-NC) »

It really depends on how good Toomey is. If he really sucks as a campaigner then Sestak will roll him but if Toomey proves to be a good candidate then it will be a fight. Let us remember that when Specter ditched the GOP Toomey strategically began to move to the center especially with his comments on Abortion and other issues. The guy isn't some knee jerk ideologue otherwise he wouldn't have done that.

It also depends on what issues dominate the campaign. Obamacare is opposed by I think 10% or slightly lower margin in PA, and Cap-n-Trade won't exactly fly out in Western/Northeastern PA. Some of Sestak's votes would certainly help Toomey in areas of PA.

As for the Philly burbs, if Abortion dominates the debate then yes, Toomey would get crushed, but in this environmment I don't see that happening, Economy, taxes, Deficits, Healthcare, Cap-n-Trade, and Immigration will all be bigger issues. And then it goes back to how good Toomey is at forming a winning message and sticking to it. Lets not forget, that Toomey has been leading for the better part of a year now in PA against both Specter and Sestak, that he was leading at all in PA, is somewhat of a miracle in and of itself.

The rule is, republicans generally need at least 25% in Philly and they have to at a minimum, split the burbs surrounding Philly county.  In Pitt, Toomey will do slightly better, but he will get mauled in SE Pennsylvania.  

If Sestak has any type of moderate appeal, he will also eat into central PA too.

Sestak is by far harder to beat then Specter, but lets not underestimate Toomey here either. He finally has his shot and I don't see him letting Sestak take this away from him without a big fight.
We'll see what Toomey starts to talk about in this campaign.  If abortion starts to become his focal point, forget it.  The race will be over by August.  Jerry Kilgore of VA clearly didn't get that though and he lost in VA in one of the worst campaigns I can ever remember.   After the primary run against Specter in 2004, I have no faith that he will run a more effective campaign this time.  In the end, he needs to show independents and democrats why they should support him.  Let's see if he understands that.

You underestimate Toomey and its mostly in your view of the 2004 PA GOP primary. You are a three term congressmen from a relatively un-influential part of the state (Lehigh Valley) and you are running against a 4 term incumbent Senator supported by a President at the height of his popularity, and a party establisment in a largely machine state, you have substanially less money, and only your values, principles and compelling arguement. Thats that makings of a 30's showing in an environment like 2004. Toomey got 49% in those conditions.


As for Toomey "understanding" what he has to do, remember this: http://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/49612/pat-toomeys-ill-considered-support-sotomayor/ed-whelan

I choose the National Review article to show a "Conservative" source criticizing Toomey. Actually article: http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/content/sotomayor-qualified-mainstream-philadelphia-inquirer

And what about this: http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/content/welcome-our-tent-pittsburgh-post-gazette
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