UK Election - Results Thread

[Badger]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

Disappointing but not surprising.

The BNP failing to win seats is "disappointing"? Surely you meant only the UKIP's falling short?

FWIW, both increased their share of the popular vote markedly. The UKIP increase from 2.2% to 3.1%, and the BNP went from 0.7% to 1.9%. Increases of almost doubling and tripling their (still meagre) vote share is noteworthy notwithstanding failing to gain seats.

[You kip if you want to...]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

Disappointing but not surprising.

The BNP failing to win seats is "disappointing"? Surely you meant only the UKIP's falling short?

FWIW, both increased their share of the popular vote markedly. The UKIP increase from 2.2% to 3.1%, and the BNP went from 0.7% to 1.9%. Increases of almost doubling and tripling their (still meagre) vote share is noteworthy notwithstanding failing to gain seats.

That's because they stood in a lot more seats.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If anyone's interested: The German site election.de did a "What if UK had used the German election system?" scenario (= you need at least 5% of the vote or three constituencies to be included in proportional seat allocation).

The results:
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/tab.pl?datafile=uk2010_szenario.txt

Tories 257 (difference to actual result: -49)
Labour 206 (-52)
LibDems 164 (+107)
SNP 12 (+6)
DUP 4 (-4)
Other parties 7

Of course, it comes down to a Tory/LibDem or Labour/LibDem coalition again, just with much stronger LibDems.

Note: For the purposes of the scenario, the number of British constituencies was apparently cut in half, since only half of the MPs would be directly elected.

[yougo1000]

Very Interesting

[Torie]

Thanks Lewis for that most interesting tour de horizon of the LD's. I very much appreciate your taking the time to do that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If anyone's interested: The German site election.de did a "What if UK had used the German election system?" scenario (= you need at least 5% of the vote or three constituencies to be included in proportional seat allocation).

Of course, it comes down to a Tory/LibDem or Labour/LibDem coalition again, just with much stronger LibDems.

Actually those numbers make a Labour/LibDem coalition possible.  With the current numbers, there' no chance Clegg would prop up Labour.

[Хahar 🤔]

My count of the results if a German-style system is below. These results assume the Tories win Thirsk and Malton, but do not take account of the vote there. European Parliament constituencies are used for states.

Party	FPTP	PR	Total
Conservative	307	188	495
Labour	258	157	415
Liberal Democrat	57	263	320
Scottish National	6	18	24
Green	1	0	1
Sinn Féin	5	9	14
Democratic Unionist	8	5	13
Plaid Cymru	3	7	10
Social Democratic and Labour	3	6	9
Alliance	1	0	1
Sylvia Hermon	1	0	1
Total	650	653	1303

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Because I'm a huge geek, and you guys did it with the German system, I figured out what the results would be if Britain used the same PR system as Sweden.

In Sweden a party needs to get either 4% of the national vote, or 12% of one region's vote, so Plaid Cymru (just short of getting 12% in Wales) Greens, UKIP, Alliance Party, and BNP don't get any representation.

Since UUP ran with the Conservatives, I counted their vote together.

Party:

Con+UUP: 259 (-48)
Labour: 206 (-52)
LibDem:163 (+106)
SNP: 12 (+6)
DUP: 4 (-4)
Sinn Fein: 4 (-1)
SPLD: 3 (+/-)

So basicly the same as the German result. (It's not hard to understand why the LibDems are so keen on PR is it)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, Durham city was one of the highlights of an otherwise fairly depressing night.

Btw, one reason why Plaid did so badly on The Island is because Owen made a big thing of linking them to the council (unpopular, dysfunctional and probably the most corrupt in the country). Most of the Tory vote came home to the official Tory candidate as well; Rogers polled dreadfully.

[Democratic Hawk]

And they cut away from Durham for Brown's seat...

Lab Hold.

Epic fail, LibDems. Epic fail.

Durham's my stomping ground . Too distinguished a city to be represented by the naff Carol Woods, who, seemingly, has announced that following her third successive loss, she would not be contesting the constituency a fourth time. Doubt her party would give her another shot to be honest. And if Cleggy jumps into bed with Cameron, the seat could potentially return to its safe Labour status. Durham Lib Dems, in my experience, are not Yellow Tories. Many activists are former Labour who bolted to the Lib Dems because of what they perceived as Labour's lurch to the right

Labour held it by running a most positive campaign centred on Roberta's and Labour's record in the constituency (and that's how it should be); I've known the Lib Dems run on as little as Gordon Brown standing outside 10 Downing Street with Baroness Thatcher, especially in the former pit villages where antipathy runs deep towards her

Durham, under Labour, has beneffited very much from both public and private investment these past 13 years; indeed, despite this government having to contend with the worst financial crisis and economic downturn since the 'Great Depression', unemployment is 1/2 that of 1991/92 and 1/4 that of 1981/82, so why take a chance on "change"?

[Democratic Hawk]

Yeah, Durham city was one of the highlights of an otherwise fairly depressing night.

To be honest, that was all I was focused on - re-electing Roberta Blackman-Woods as Durham's Labour MP. It would have been a crying shame if that dreadful Woods' woman got in on the back of 'Cleggmania', which as we know proved itself more of a wimper than a bang

Alan Campbell holding Tynemouth was an excellent result, for Labour, too

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tynemouth wasn't even close. Btw, check out the council results for North Tyneside. Some might cause a bit of a shock...

Blaydon returned to 'safe' status, which is interesting.

[k-onmmunist]

Parts of Liverpool were over 70% Labour. Ah, this is why I love them so much

[mileslunn]

If anyone's interested: The German site election.de did a "What if UK had used the German election system?" scenario (= you need at least 5% of the vote or three constituencies to be included in proportional seat allocation).

The results:
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/tab.pl?datafile=uk2010_szenario.txt

Tories 257 (difference to actual result: -49)
Labour 206 (-52)
LibDems 164 (+107)
SNP 12 (+6)
DUP 4 (-4)
Other parties 7

Of course, it comes down to a Tory/LibDem or Labour/LibDem coalition again, just with much stronger LibDems.

Note: For the purposes of the scenario, the number of British constituencies was apparently cut in half, since only half of the MPs would be directly elected.

Interesting numbers although I doubt the results would be identical if Britain used MMP.  For one I think the Green Party would have got a higher percentage and the UKIP almost certainly would have crossed the 5% threshold and the BNP also likely would have crossed it as well.  By contrast I suspect the Labour Party would have been in the lower 20s and Tories in the lower 30s as some people who support smaller parties won't vote for them since they know they have no chance at winning.  In countries that use proportional representation, the Greens usually get between 5-10% while in much of Europe, parties on the Far right often exceed 10% and considering how big an issue immigration is with the British population as well as the fact a large chunk despise the European Union, I suspect the UKIP and BNP would almost certainly get above 5% and probably 10%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone remember Roger Godsiff? Of course you do; he's the one that put out that 'interesting' leaflet that accused the LibDems of being the party of serial killers, child abusers and rapists.

Birmingham Hall Green

Roger Godsiff, Labour, 16,039, 32.9%
Salma Yaqoob, Respect, 12,240, 25.1%
Jerry Evans, LDem, 11,988, 24.6%
Jo Barker, Con, 7,320, 15%
Others, 1,140
Majority 3,799 (7.8%)

[Phony Moderate]

Was Gisela Stuart's win in Birmingham Edgbaston the most suprising Labour hold of the night?

[Sewer]

Any one wish to make a "What if UK had used the Israeli election system?" scenario?

[rob in cal]

Do we have any indication of what the 2nd preference for supporters of the LD's, UKIP, and BNP electorate is?  This would be interesting if when all is said and done the UK goes for either an AV system like for Australia House of Reps, or Irish style STV-PR, as both systems use second choice preferences for losing candidates.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone wanna have a guess at a result if it was under Labour's proposed AV system?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yaqoob did very well. That was Respect's best result, yes?

[You kip if you want to...]

Yaqoob did very well. That was Respect's best result, yes?

Yup. It was.

[Хahar 🤔]

I wouldn't have thought it before the election, what with the new boundaries. Why did the Respect vote hold up so well here when it collapsed on the East End?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't have thought it before the election, what with the new boundaries. Why did the Respect vote hold up so well here when it collapsed on the East End?

Yaqoob is an important player in local politics and has ties to the Birmingham Central Mosque. Respect in Birmingham is essentially her personality cult party.

In the City Council elections, Labour won the Springfield ward, Respect (actually Yaqoob herself) the Sparkbrook ward and the LibDems the Hall Green and Moseley & Kings Heath wards.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone happen to know what the last election was when all 3 party leaders extended their own constituency majorities (as Brown, Dave and Clegg did this time)?

[You kip if you want to...]

Was Gisela Stuart's win in Birmingham Edgbaston the most suprising Labour hold of the night?

Probably. David Dimbleby and the BBC seemed rather shocked.