Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000

[Bo]

[Bo]

What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?

I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.

[Bo]

What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say...

*Runs to get FDR biography*

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I'd just guess poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones.

[Bo]

I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous.

[Bo]

What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992?  I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. 

I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.

[Bo]

I'm surprised Ike and Stevenson were so close near the 1952 election. Was it just a bad sample, or did Ike really overperform (and why)?

[Bo]

It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson.

Why, though? Ike was a war hero.

[Bo]

1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct?

If you look carefully, the 1996 polls only extend to August (on the chart). I think Gallup's November poll showed 52% for Clinton, while their August poll showed 55% for Clinton.

[Bo]

Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll.

Because not everything Clinton (or any politician) says is accurate.

[Bo]

I added in these two charts:

[Bo]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx

Does anyone know how to put charts from this link directly onto here? Those charts are pretty much the same (except for 2004), but they look neater.

[Bo]

Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ?

He dropped out and then re-entered the race.

LOL Fail.

He was even ahead at some time !!

He sad something about the Republicans trying to sabotage his daughter's wedding. lol 

How exactly is that a reason to drop out?

[Bo]

Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76?  Damn. 

It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter.

No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol.

Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier.

Sorry, you're right. My brain just lapsed there for some reason. Your reasons are mostly correct  for 1976, and also the economy began to recover that year, so maybe that provided some boost for Ford near the end.

[Bo]

Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76?  Damn.  

It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter.

No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol.

Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier.

If the election of 76 would have been held a few days later, Ford might have pulled it off. Carter was falling in the polls, and it only would have been a matter of time until he would have lost the lead. He was lucky in 76.

Ford also might have pulled it off if he hadn't said that Poland gaffe. That essentially halted his momentum and upward poll bounce.

[Bo]

Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76?  Damn.  

It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter.

No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol.

Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier.

If the election of 76 would have been held a few days later, Ford might have pulled it off. Carter was falling in the polls, and it only would have been a matter of time until he would have lost the lead. He was lucky in 76.

Ford also might have pulled it off if he hadn't said that Poland gaffe. That essentially halted his momentum and upward poll bounce.

That hurt him, but it was not what did him in though. We would have been better off if Ford was re-elected.

I could see that gaffe costing Ford about one percentage point in the PV and thus costing him the election. I agree with your second part.