Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
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Topic: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 (Read 42587 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
on:
April 29, 2010, 06:00:49 PM »
«
edited:
May 07, 2010, 11:25:19 PM
by
Time goes by, so slowly »
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,990
Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #1 on:
April 29, 2010, 06:06:55 PM »
What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #2 on:
April 29, 2010, 06:12:50 PM »
Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 29, 2010, 06:06:55 PM
What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?
I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.
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Franzl
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,270
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #3 on:
April 29, 2010, 06:15:55 PM »
Quote from: Interrmoderate on April 29, 2010, 06:12:50 PM
Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 29, 2010, 06:06:55 PM
What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?
I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.
Brilliant! You should become a political commentator!
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Sasquatch
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,077
Political Matrix
E: -8.13, S: -8.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #4 on:
April 29, 2010, 07:43:13 PM »
You can find all of the national polls from 2000 over at pollingreport.com, even the ones where Gore was beating McCain in early 2000.
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Psychic Octopus
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,949
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #5 on:
April 29, 2010, 08:29:23 PM »
What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say...
*Runs to get FDR biography*
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Bo
Rochambeau
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Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #6 on:
April 29, 2010, 09:02:43 PM »
Quote from: NiK on April 29, 2010, 08:29:23 PM
What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say...
*Runs to get FDR biography*
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I'd just guess poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones.
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Nym90
nym90
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Posts: 16,273
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #7 on:
April 29, 2010, 10:48:05 PM »
Democrats used to underpoll in the 1930's and 40's because it was very difficult to poll many Democratic voters due to them lacking telephones.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #8 on:
April 29, 2010, 11:44:01 PM »
I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous.
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Mr.Phips
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,819
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #9 on:
April 30, 2010, 12:23:36 AM »
What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #10 on:
April 30, 2010, 12:26:39 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 30, 2010, 12:23:36 AM
What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July.
I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.
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memphis
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Posts: 15,976
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #11 on:
April 30, 2010, 12:32:22 AM »
Quote from: Interrmoderate on April 29, 2010, 11:44:01 PM
I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous.
Residual shock from the Kennedy assassination. Imagine if Bush had been running for re-election in early 2002 (with a good economy as well).
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Mr.Phips
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,819
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #12 on:
April 30, 2010, 12:34:06 AM »
Quote from: Interrmoderate on April 30, 2010, 12:26:39 AM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 30, 2010, 12:23:36 AM
What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July.
I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.
The GOP Convention didnt occur until late August.
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Joe Republic
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 36,007
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #13 on:
April 30, 2010, 12:56:12 AM »
Quote from: Rochambeau on April 29, 2010, 06:12:50 PM
Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 29, 2010, 06:06:55 PM
What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?
I'm guessing
dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.
Quote from: Rochambeau on April 29, 2010, 09:02:43 PM
Quote from: NiK on April 29, 2010, 08:29:23 PM
What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election
I'd just guess
poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones.
Quote from: Rochambeau on April 30, 2010, 12:26:39 AM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 30, 2010, 12:23:36 AM
What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July.
I guess
Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.
Thanks for posting this information and all, but it's best if you let the grown-ups talk now.
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Psychic Octopus
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,949
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #14 on:
April 30, 2010, 12:45:05 PM »
That is what I suspected; but the 1940 results aren't far off from the total.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #15 on:
April 30, 2010, 05:25:41 PM »
I'm surprised Ike and Stevenson were so close near the 1952 election. Was it just a bad sample, or did Ike really overperform (and why)?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 39,294
Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #16 on:
May 02, 2010, 01:07:04 AM »
It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #17 on:
May 02, 2010, 01:09:20 AM »
Quote from: Хahar on May 02, 2010, 01:07:04 AM
It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson.
Why, though? Ike was a war hero.
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Tuck!
tuckerbanks
Jr. Member
Posts: 392
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.70
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #18 on:
May 05, 2010, 06:07:26 PM »
1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct?
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #19 on:
May 05, 2010, 06:15:04 PM »
Quote from: Tuck on May 05, 2010, 06:07:26 PM
1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct?
If you look carefully, the 1996 polls only extend to August (on the chart). I think Gallup's November poll showed 52% for Clinton, while their August poll showed 55% for Clinton.
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Tuck!
tuckerbanks
Jr. Member
Posts: 392
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.70
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #20 on:
May 05, 2010, 06:16:38 PM »
Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #21 on:
May 05, 2010, 06:26:19 PM »
Quote from: Tuck on May 05, 2010, 06:16:38 PM
Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll.
Because not everything Clinton (or any politician) says is accurate.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #22 on:
May 07, 2010, 11:23:02 PM »
«
Edited:
May 07, 2010, 11:26:07 PM
by
Time goes by, so slowly »
I added in these two charts:
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,987
Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #23 on:
May 18, 2010, 05:44:48 PM »
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx
Does anyone know how to put charts from this link directly onto here? Those charts are pretty much the same (except for 2004), but they look neater.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
Posts: 53,449
Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83
Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
«
Reply #24 on:
June 19, 2010, 05:30:14 AM »
Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ?
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