Is a landslide possible?

[The Mikado]

The GOP wouldn't win Maine? I would think they would win at least CD-2. Idk, Maine is strange...

Yeah, the GOP would win CD-2.  I'm always unsure as to whether that would flip the state; isn't CD-1 more populated?  I just gave Obama both.  The GOP wouldn't win CD-1 unless they're running someone like Collins or Snowe on the ticket though.

Don't forget that the borders will again be tinkered with post-redistricting.  Same goes for Nebraska.

[DS0816]

Would any of you say a landslide on the scale of 1936, 1964, 1972 or 1984 is possible for Obama in 2012? Why or why not?

It would be under the scenario that Obama wins the popular vote in a margin of victory similar to those you've mentioned. He'd need to go higher than Ronald Reagan's 18.22% from 1984. So I'd say that, if Obama were to win by 21/22 points minimum, he could have an epic, massive landslide blow against his Republican "challenger" in 2012.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Would any of you say a landslide on the scale of 1936, 1964, 1972 or 1984 is possible for Obama in 2012? Why or why not?

It would be under the scenario that Obama wins the popular vote in a margin of victory similar to those you've mentioned. He'd need to go higher than Ronald Reagan's 18.22% from 1984. So I'd say that, if Obama were to win by 21/22 points minimum, he could have an epic, massive landslide blow against his Republican "challenger" in 2012.

Unfortunately for Obama, that's not going to be possible. It will be a miracle for Obama if he even wins his election at all in 2012.

[California8429]

Best Case Scenario for Obama:

Worst Case Scenario for Obama (When he admits he hates America and is a secret Muslim)

The GOP wouldn't win Maine? I would think they would win at least CD-2. Idk, Maine is strange...

and the GOP don't even win Washington? McCain even had a chance there in 08 for a little bit, far more than Oregon

[old timey villain]

Would any of you say a landslide on the scale of 1936, 1964, 1972 or 1984 is possible for Obama in 2012? Why or why not?

It would be under the scenario that Obama wins the popular vote in a margin of victory similar to those you've mentioned. He'd need to go higher than Ronald Reagan's 18.22% from 1984. So I'd say that, if Obama were to win by 21/22 points minimum, he could have an epic, massive landslide blow against his Republican "challenger" in 2012.

Unfortunately for Obama, that's not going to be possible. It will be a miracle for Obama if he even wins his election at all in 2012.

Wishful thinking. Dems were saying the same thing about Reagan in 1982 and Repubs were saying the same thing about Clinton in 1994. Ironically, in 1990, George Bush's reelection was almost completely assured.

[CultureKing]

Best Case Scenario for Obama:

Worst Case Scenario for Obama (When he admits he hates America and is a secret Muslim)

The GOP wouldn't win Maine? I would think they would win at least CD-2. Idk, Maine is strange...

and the GOP don't even win Washington? McCain even had a chance there in 08 for a little bit, far more than Oregon

McCain never had a chance in Washington. The state is too polarized and maxes out national republican candidates at around 45-47%, enough to get close and possibly win, but only with a strong third party (basically like what happened to Oregon in 2000).

[Derek]

http://

Anything can happen in an election that is over 2 years away. Bush Sr. fell from a 91% to losing an election and Clinton was in the 30's and won reelection. Obama is nowhere near these 2 extremes so it's hard to say. Right now this is the guaranteed map as I'm calling it.

[The Mikado]

You don't consider California or New Jersey (New Jersey!) Safe Dem, but you do consider North Carolina Safe GOP?

[Bull Moose Base]

You don't consider California or New Jersey (New Jersey!) Safe Dem, but you do consider North Carolina Safe GOP?

Or Indiana.  Or Nebraska 2, Georgia, or Dakotas.

[Derek]

No not really. I think that a popular governor Christie can help the GOP be competitive in 2012 in New Jersey. California is learning what democrat policies actually do to a state. Both are unpredictable but likely to go democrat still. Indiana will be more likely to go with Mitch Daniels' influence. 2008 is over.

[The Mikado]

No not really. I think that a popular governor Christie can help the GOP be competitive in 2012 in New Jersey. California is learning what democrat policies actually do to a state. Both are unpredictable but likely to go democrat still. Indiana will be more likely to go with Mitch Daniels' influence. 2008 is over.

Wait, you seriously think that having Christie as governor will magically help the national ticket?

As for California, its bankruptcy is mostly due to the several decades of malign influence of Prop 13.  When you have a system where you need a supermajority to raise revenue but a majority to raise spending, what do you think will happen?  Spending goes up, taxes remain the same.  This has happened under GOP governors and Dem governors alike.

[Derek]

No not really. I think that a popular governor Christie can help the GOP be competitive in 2012 in New Jersey. California is learning what democrat policies actually do to a state. Both are unpredictable but likely to go democrat still. Indiana will be more likely to go with Mitch Daniels' influence. 2008 is over.

Wait, you seriously think that having Christie as governor will magically help the national ticket?

As for California, its bankruptcy is mostly due to the several decades of malign influence of Prop 13.  When you have a system where you need a supermajority to raise revenue but a majority to raise spending, what do you think will happen?  Spending goes up, taxes remain the same.  This has happened under GOP governors and Dem governors alike.

I completely agree. I'm saying that having Christie as governor will help the GOP in New Jersey to be competitive at least. Yes spending and taxes that's true for sure. A supermajority needed to raise spending should be required as well. Bush wasn't great on spending either. I would've used his "tax cut" from 2001 to pay off the deficit and then lowered the tax brackets. He didn't have the political pull yet to do that though and the money was wasted.

[pbrower2a]

http://

Anything can happen in an election that is over 2 years away. Bush Sr. fell from a 91% to losing an election and Clinton was in the 30's and won reelection. Obama is nowhere near these 2 extremes so it's hard to say. Right now this is the guaranteed map as I'm calling it.

California, New Jersey, and Oregon seem safer for  Obama than, for example Texas, let alone either of the Dakotas or Georgia is for the Republicans.

I do not think Indiana, North Carolina, or NE-02 safe for the Republicans; Obama won them.

Much will happen by November 2012..