By 2020 which states will..
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Devilman88
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« on: April 10, 2010, 05:09:00 PM »

By the year 2020 which states will have gay marriages? I'm hoping all of them because by that time, I will be 32 and ready to marry. Smiley  What states do you think will have gay marriage by 2020, 10 years from now.
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xavier110
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2010, 05:28:25 PM »

According to Nate Silver's math, every state but South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi would vote down a gay marriage ban by 2020. Doesn't necessarily mean the other states would have gay marriage, but still.

I'd expect, at the very least, all of New England, the west coast, Montana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois would have gay marriage by 2020.
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justW353
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2010, 05:56:47 PM »

Optimistically...


Red is legal.  Blue is banned.  Gray is a tossup.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2010, 05:57:49 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2010, 05:59:45 PM by Lunar »

According to Nate Silver's math, every state but South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi would vote down a gay marriage ban by 2020. Doesn't necessarily mean the other states would have gay marriage, but still.

C'mon, Utah & Idaho are still there.  Mathematics don't solve everything, some states are never going to do it until it's federal.

Obviously (to me), the strongly Democratic states will all fold on this issue (NY, CA, MD, IL, HI, NJ) but after that, it's going to be a push and shove and waiting for larger demographic and cultural shifts to win over suburbia on the issue.

Gay marriage will be everywhere in the long-run.  And, of course, there's never anything stopping you from holding a ceremony and declaring that someone is your husband.  NY confers many legal benefits from marriages obtained in other states, which could be a possibility for a number of states which would otherwise not legally confer it themselves. 
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2010, 06:06:00 PM »

Optimistically...


Red is legal.  Blue is banned.  Gray is a tossup.

The fascist hellhole of Florida, single worst state in the country, will never legalize gay marriage.
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2010, 06:07:17 PM »

Florida is one of like the two holdouts that prevents gay people from even adopting children, right?

Or did they change that or do I have my facts wrong?

But his map has it legal in Arkansas, so, I mean...I see Florida flipping before that happens.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2010, 06:12:12 PM »

Florida is one of like the two holdouts that prevents gay people from even adopting children, right?

Or did they change that or do I have my facts wrong?

But his map has it legal in Arkansas, so, I mean...I see Florida flipping before that happens.

Yeah Arkansas? Lamezorz.
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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2010, 06:21:24 PM »

Nowhere in the South, so it's probably best to leave.
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justW353
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2010, 06:42:47 PM »

Florida is one of like the two holdouts that prevents gay people from even adopting children, right?

Or did they change that or do I have my facts wrong?

But his map has it legal in Arkansas, so, I mean...I see Florida flipping before that happens.

Yeah Arkansas? Lamezorz.

I put Arkansas as red?  I meant it as grey.

Florida, in ten years, will have moved enough to the left to at least possibly legalize it.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2010, 06:44:52 PM »

Florida will not legalize gay marriage on its own.

Assuming nothing happens federally...



Or at least, the red states will have some forms of recognition if not marriage.
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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2010, 06:46:01 PM »

Florida is one of like the two holdouts that prevents gay people from even adopting children, right?

Or did they change that or do I have my facts wrong?

But his map has it legal in Arkansas, so, I mean...I see Florida flipping before that happens.

Yeah Arkansas? Lamezorz.

I put Arkansas as red?  I meant it as grey.

Florida, in ten years, will have moved enough to the left to at least possibly legalize it.

Only a third of Florida Democrats favored Same-Sex Marriage in 2009. No way possible in ten years.
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LBJ Revivalist
ModerateDemocrat1990
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2010, 06:48:02 PM »

Why does anyone think in just ten years the atmosphere and bitterness toward gay marriage will be any different than it is now?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2010, 07:08:07 PM »

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Lunar
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2010, 07:12:59 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2010, 07:20:50 PM by Lunar »

Florida is one of like the two holdouts that prevents gay people from even adopting children, right?

Or did they change that or do I have my facts wrong?

But his map has it legal in Arkansas, so, I mean...I see Florida flipping before that happens.

Yeah Arkansas? Lamezorz.

I put Arkansas as red?  I meant it as grey.

Florida, in ten years, will have moved enough to the left to at least possibly legalize it.

Only a third of Florida Democrats favored Same-Sex Marriage in 2009. No way possible in ten years.

Yeah, that's what happens with coalitions.

Question for everyone:  Were there any Democrats that favored gay marriage on the state level, for the 2008 election cycle?  I presume Kucinich did, but really he's enough of a nutcase that I don't even know about that.  I'm pretty sure Obama/Clinton/Biden/Dodd/Richardson didn't support gay marriage on a state level [i.e., if it came up for a vote on a referendum in their state, they'd vote against it, a much more conservative position than opposing it on the federal level]

In NY, there's a really cool group called Fight Back which focuses on blowing up Democrats in liberal districts who oppose gay marriage...but they don't work the issue, they concentrate their money and efforts on wherever said Democrat is most vulnerable, and not on the gay marriage issue in particular.  I've been hugely impressed with their efforts, they bounced Hiram and replaced him with Peralta pretty recently, and they have their targets.  The message is interesting:  Even if your constituents don't care about gay marriage, we still do.  I'd love to see it replicated nationally, by the HRC are a bunch of capitulating establishment wussies.

I've predicted for over a year now that there will never be another Democrat nominated for president who staunchly opposes gay marriage.  
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phk
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« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2010, 07:19:48 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if opposition increased since those that favor it the most, white liberals, have the lowest fertility rates.

While minorities who oppose it (even the D's) have higher fertility rates.

It will probably be a double dip, but however much time it takes for Western-style social liberalism to reach non-whites.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2010, 07:23:09 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if opposition increased since those that favor it the most, white liberals, have the lowest fertility rates.

While minorities who oppose it (even the D's) have higher fertility rates.

It will probably be a double dip, but however much time it takes for Western-style social liberalism to reach non-whites.

Yeah but you're ignoring the age variables, which are probably even more impacting than the race one.  Young blacks and Hispanic liberals aren't the same group as older ones on this issue.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2010, 07:53:52 PM »

Optimistically...


Red is legal.  Blue is banned.  Gray is a tossup.

North Carolina would have gay marriages before, IN, FL, TN, TX, GA, AR and MO. We are the only state in the south that hasn't put it in our Constitution that marriage is between a man and a women.
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dead0man
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« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2010, 01:27:46 AM »

Is it possible there will be more cases like Iowa where the courts force the change?
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Conservative frontier
JC
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« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2010, 01:28:41 AM »

How about, no more? This Wat on Moralty won't last forever.
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2010, 06:43:08 AM »

How about, stop trying to assert your manhood like every other 14 year old does by bashing on the gays, or are you compensating for something? Your opinion of morality isn't absolute, sorry to break it to ya.

Is it possible there will be more cases like Iowa where the courts force the change?

It's getting less and less likely. Of the states that don't have amendments, a few have already been to the court and have lost, and it would take a new composition of their courts and some years to even try again... it'd be weird for the same people to go against their own precedent just a few years later.

New Jersey is worth looking at, though. They said to make same-sex couples equal a few years ago, and the legislature went for civil unions. They tried doing marriage late last year, didn't make it, and even in the debate, everyone was saying civil unions weren't equal, even some opponents. So, it's going back to the Supreme Court. But I don't know anything about Jersey courts to comment -- I guess they have good points if they use their opponents words against them. And the case is being argued by the same people who got same-sex marriage in Iowa.
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xavier110
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« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2010, 10:07:29 AM »

How about, no more? This Wat on Moralty won't last forever.

LOL
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k-onmmunist
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« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2010, 10:16:09 AM »

How about, no more? This Wat on Moralty won't last forever.

1453 called, they want you back.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2010, 01:04:51 PM »

Definitely: Vermont, Mass, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, California, Maryland, Delaware, Washington, Maine, Illinois

Maybe: Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota
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Edu
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« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2010, 01:32:49 PM »

How about, no more? This Wat on Moralty won't last forever.

The "lean gay" guy has spoken.
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #24 on: April 11, 2010, 04:18:40 PM »

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