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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Should've left the Pangolins alone, Apocrypha)
  1980: Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale vs. Ed Brooke/George Bush
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Author Topic: 1980: Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale vs. Ed Brooke/George Bush  (Read 3868 times)
justW353
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« on: April 09, 2010, 09:05:19 pm »

Reagan doesn't run and Ed Brooke somehow wins the nomination.  How does the election turn out?
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2010, 09:11:49 pm »

Brooke wins, but he would probably choose someone more conservative.
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justW353
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« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2010, 09:16:27 pm »

Brooke wins, but he would probably choose someone more conservative.

Yeah, that was a dilemma.  I couldn't decide who to pick as VP, so I picked Bush...

What about Reagan as VP?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2010, 09:27:14 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.

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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2010, 09:37:00 pm »

Brooke wins, but he would probably choose someone more conservative.

Yeah, that was a dilemma.  I couldn't decide who to pick as VP, so I picked Bush...

What about Reagan as VP?
Too old - perhaps Phil Crane, or Dole. Maybe some other conservative that just can't come to mind right now.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2010, 02:13:52 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2010, 02:22:40 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.

Let's not pull the race card on Libertas just yet, after all this would be only 16 years after the Civil Rights of 1964, maybe the nation is unready for a black president.  However, a 50 state landslide for an unpopular incumbent president is also unlikely.
I digress........
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2010, 02:29:08 pm »



391-147

I'm not very concrete about this, but Carter ran exceptionally well in Dixie, and with Brooke running it (for obvious reasons) would have turned against him. However, Brooke probably does slightly better then Reagan in New England then in real life, and manages to keep his numbers higher then Carter in the west.

This probably a bit optimistic, but I think Brooke-Bush wins by a decisive margin.
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Sewer
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2010, 02:46:17 pm »

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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2010, 03:13:00 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.
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Bo
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2010, 03:41:34 pm »

Does John Anderson run (as an Independent) in this scenario? Also, does Brooke ask people if they are better off than they were four years ago (like Reagan did)?
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2010, 03:42:20 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.

Oh, because you're one to talk about lives.

Congratulations. You're the second person I'll be putting on ignore.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2010, 03:51:12 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.

While I do agree that it is presumptious of Sven to assume racism on your part I must wonder quite frankly how the hell, even with the racism of the time, an incumbent as unpopular as Carter somehow manages to win all 50 states against any Republican ticket.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2010, 03:58:56 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.

Oh, because you're one to talk about lives.

Congratulations. You're the second person I'll be putting on ignore.

Thank God. Find someone else to obsess over.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2010, 04:10:46 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.

While I do agree that it is presumptious of Sven to assume racism on your part I must wonder quite frankly how the hell, even with the racism of the time, an incumbent as unpopular as Carter somehow manages to win all 50 states against any Republican ticket.

Uh, Reagan won 49 states in 1984. The demographics of the country were much much whiter in 1980 than they are today.

Consider the fact that Brooke was the first and only black elected to the U.S. Senate since Reconstruction until 1993, and to this day, one of only four.

The first black governor wasn't elected until 1990.

So at the time in the entire U.S.A. we have a grand total of one black man having been elected to a statewide position or higher, from Massachusetts.

But you're saying this country then was somehow one prepared to elect a black man President of the United States?
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Mechaman
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2010, 04:12:31 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.

While I do agree that it is presumptious of Sven to assume racism on your part I must wonder quite frankly how the hell, even with the racism of the time, an incumbent as unpopular as Carter somehow manages to win all 50 states against any Republican ticket.

Uh, Reagan won 49 states in 1984. The demographics of the country were much much whiter in 1980 than they are today.

Consider the fact that Brooke was the first and only black elected to the U.S. Senate since Reconstruction until 1993, and to this day, one of only four.

The first black governor wasn't elected until 1990.

So at the time in the entire U.S.A. we have a grand total of one black man having been elected to a statewide position or higher, from Massachusetts.

But you're saying this country then was somehow one prepared to elect a black man President of the United States?

No, I'm saying that as bad as it might've been back then I highly doubt ALL 50 STATES would've re-elected Jimmy Carter.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2010, 04:15:40 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.
Right, now I'm a racist for making an electoral map that recognizes the existence of historical racism. Roll Eyes

Get a life, Sven.

While I do agree that it is presumptious of Sven to assume racism on your part I must wonder quite frankly how the hell, even with the racism of the time, an incumbent as unpopular as Carter somehow manages to win all 50 states against any Republican ticket.

Uh, Reagan won 49 states in 1984. The demographics of the country were much much whiter in 1980 than they are today.

Consider the fact that Brooke was the first and only black elected to the U.S. Senate since Reconstruction until 1993, and to this day, one of only four.

The first black governor wasn't elected until 1990.

So at the time in the entire U.S.A. we have a grand total of one black man having been elected to a statewide position or higher, from Massachusetts.

But you're saying this country then was somehow one prepared to elect a black man President of the United States?

No, I'm saying that as bad as it might've been back then I highly doubt ALL 50 STATES would've re-elected Jimmy Carter.

I agree with Mechaman here. A President with approvals in the 30s would not win all 50 states, even against an opponent such as Brooke. This would be like Bush Sr. having a gay opponent in 1992. Bush Sr. mgiht win despite his unpopualrity, but his oppoentn would still win some states.
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shua
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« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2010, 12:28:36 am »

Does John Anderson run (as an Independent) in this scenario? Also, does Brooke ask people if they are better off than they were four years ago (like Reagan did)?

Anderson and Brooke are both moderate-liberal Republicans, so I don't see an Anderson run. A third party on the right would be more likely.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2010, 12:37:47 am »



Brooke/Bush-276 EV-49.48%
Carter/Mondale-262 EV-48.72%

Brooke loses the South due to racism, but manages to win most of the North and almost all of the West. The post-Civil Rights Act generation was ineligible to vote in 1980, and thus there is much more racism among the voting populace in this election than in 2008. Brooke manages to pull off a narrow victory due to dissatisfaction with Carter in both domestic and foreign policy, becoming America's first Black President.
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shua
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« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2010, 01:53:48 am »



326 - 212

Brooke wins his home New England, and the Carter 'malaise' makes Brooke competitive in much of the country, and he wins just over half the vote in the plains and mountain states. Brooke wins about 2/3 of the black vote and becomes the first Republican to win DC. However, Carter is strong in the South and is the more popular candidate among many social conservatives as well as economically left-liberal Democrats, leading to a close popular vote.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2010, 05:21:59 pm »

344 - 194
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2010, 05:24:12 pm »


Explain. I think much more Americans would have voted for a black candidate in 1980 if the incumbent President was a massive screwup and if they were not better off than they were four years ago. Not to mention that Brooke would have likely gotten at least half of the black vote, which could have provided him his margins of victory in several close states and which Carter won overwhelmingly in RL.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2010, 09:01:28 pm »

Call it a gut feeling.  Carter always did very well in the South with white voters, and Brooke probably still wouldn't have broken 35-40% of the black vote, which, combined with a high % of the white vote for Carter, keeps many states in his column.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2010, 09:22:14 pm »

A black man is not winning anything in 1980.



So apparently, you're racist now as well. You've singlehandedly raped open-mindedness, I think.

Let's not pull the race card on Libertas just yet, after all this would be only 16 years after the Civil Rights of 1964, maybe the nation is unready for a black president.  However, a 50 state landslide for an unpopular incumbent president is also unlikely.
I digress........

Since when you're such Libertas defended? Oh, I forget, you need his support for Senate.
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