British General Election Constituency Predictions

[minionofmidas]

He's predicting the Tories to gain Poplar & Limehouse but not Hammersmith - which is certainly an interesting prediction.

But perfectly reasonable in a sense. -_-

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

I assume the third is a Tory gain... what's the fourth least likely one?

Actually the Tory gain is the least likely one. The third one is Peter Rogers (who is running again) winning.

I'm aware of him - but I just figured that unless he collapses badly, we can 100% rule out the Tory gain scenario and are left with just two possible outcomes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but we can't entirely rule out him (or the Tory) collapsing completely - that's the problem. But, yes, in practice only two outcomes are likely. The better Rogers does in the rural west Island, the better things will be for Owen, though.

15. STROUD - A slightly newagey place where the Greens are a factor. CON GAIN

Stroud the town is, anyway. Much of the rest is very traditional agricultural territory and there are also the old cloth towns that, unlike Stroud, have retained some of their old character; Stonehouse is a good example.

[You kip if you want to...]

The London map is just too damn small. I can't be bothered to figure out exactly what you're predicting.

He's predicting the Tories to gain Poplar & Limehouse but not Hammersmith - which is certainly an interesting prediction.

Btw, I've settled on an order (of sorts) for mine. Stuff up soon.

I'm assuming that Galloway is a spoiler for Labour, as he was in Bethnal Green in '05.

[minionofmidas]

We can't rule out  the Tory collapsing completely

I disagree.

That's basically asking the posh English pensioner incomers to vote for a Welshman not endorsed by a national party (that isn't Labour). Can't see it.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 6: The North-East (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West)



Labour - 26 (-1)
Conservative - 2 (+1)
Liberal Democrats - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part six:
Labour - 305 (-44)
Conservative - 257 (+47)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 20

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We can't rule out  the Tory collapsing completely

I disagree.

That's basically asking the posh English pensioner incomers to vote for a Welshman not endorsed by a national party (that isn't Labour). Can't see it.

Rogers managed to reduce the Tory vote to 11% last time round - though I more-or-less agree with you, I think... a repeat is very unlikely and going further... yeah. But there's relatively little you can rule out regarding the Island. I wonder how the local government scandals (which led to the effective temporary end of local government) will affect the result.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part II of my predictions.

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 1%-1.5% --

17. BASILDON SOUTH AND THURROCK EAST - May be a slightly tougher nut for the Conservatives than its position on the list suggests.  However, CON GAIN

18. EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON - A new seat and a three-way marginal, but the Lib Dems have no local council presence.  CON GAIN

19. CITY OF CHESTER - The Tories have performed well at local level here.  CON GAIN

20. HEREFORD AND HEREFORDSHIRE SOUTH - Whether the Lib Dems hold or the Tories win will depend which of the two parts of the constituency's name outvotes the other.  Will be close, but: CON GAIN

21. COLNE VALLEY - Three-way marginal and local results have been mixed.  Labour MP standing down.  CON GAIN

22. CARDIFF NORTH - The bourgeois northern suburbs of Cardiff.  Held by the Conservatives in the Welsh Assembly.  CON GAIN

23. HASTINGS AND RYE - Labour have done well here at local level.  I'll be controversial here.  LAB HOLD

24. CALDER VALLEY - Similar to Colne Valley but the Lib Dems are too far back to win.  CON GAIN

25. STOURBRIDGE - The Tories are dominant at local level.  CON GAIN

26. CARSHALTON AND WALLINGTON - Lib Dem control of Sutton council is slipping.  CON GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 1.5%-2% --

27. MILTON KEYNES SOUTH - The two MK seats will stand or fall together.  CON GAIN

28. CORBY - This seat is misleadingly named as it includes virtually all of rural East Northants.  This time the rural areas will outvote the steel town.  CON GAIN

29. TAUNTON DEANE - The Lib Dems only lost this in the first place because of Jackie Ballard antagonising the Exmoor huntin' shootin' and fishin' community.  Exmoor now moves out of this seat in the boundary changes.  LD HOLD

30. PERTH AND PERTHSHIRE NORTH - Should be an easy hold for the SNP.  SNP HOLD

31. VALE OF GLAMORGAN - Closest result in 1992 and close at the Welsh Assembly election.  The Labour MP is standing down.  CON GAIN

32. SWINDON SOUTH - The Tories now have a huge majority on Swindon council.  CON GAIN

33. DORSET SOUTH - The seat at which Labour loses its majority and Labour's only gain in 2001.  Labour have performed poorly at local level in Weymouth.  CON GAIN

34. NORTHAMPTON SOUTH - Already has a Tory MP who has chosen to stand and fight here rather than move to the brand-new safe Tory seat of Northants South.  Labour have collapsed at local level and former Labour MP Tony Clarke is standing as an independent.  CON GAIN

35. HIGH PEAK - The result will be decided in Glossop and New Mills rather than up in the Peak.  Local results are not encouraging for Labour.  CON GAIN

36. LOUGHBOROUGH - Safer than it looks.  Labour have performed very well at local level.  LAB HOLD

37. ABERCONWY - Brand-new seat in north Wales.  No real Labour vote here and the seat was convincingly won by Plaid in the Assembly with the Tories second.  PLAID CYMRU GAIN

38. WATFORD - Three-way marginal but at local level all the momentum is with the Lib Dems who have built an enormous lead on Watford council.  Lib Dem elected mayor Dorothy Thornberry has the job for as long as she wants it.  LIB DEM GAIN

[minionofmidas]

33. DORSET SOUTH - Labour's only gain in 2001.

No.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 7: The South-East (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East)



Conservative - 90 (+15) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (±0)
Labour - 4 (-16)
The Greens - 1 (+1)

National seat totals after part seven:
Labour - 289 (-60)
Conservative - 272 (+62) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 37

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

The only seat which I think is a total wildcard here is Eastleigh. If it was any other Lib Dem, this'd be an easy Tory gain, but Chris Huhne has high name recognition and he's on the LibDem's front bench so I imagine he has a pretty big personal vote. But, his '05 majority was so small that I can't see the Torys not being able to pick it up with a 4-digit majority.

Oh, and Nigel Farage isn't even gonna come close in Buckingham. If this was an anti-Tory year, ala 1997, then maybe, just maybe, he'd be able to scrape a win by a few hundred votes, but alas, this isn't 1997 and the Tories are gonna make massive gains especially in their traditional strongholds.

[minionofmidas]

Oddly defined region map there.

A lot of people seem to forget one thing about the notionals in Romsey - the newly added territory has a lot of LD potential and never previously a tactical reason to vote for them.

Also not so sure I'd predict Tory gains in Dover, whatever that seat they herded a lot of Labour voters into in Northern Kent (Chatham & Aylesford I think), Hastings (okay, I probably *would* in that case), or Kemptown...

Though all are of course possible.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oddly defined region map there.

I thought that, i'm using the regions as defined at UK Polling Report.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 8: East Anglia (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East)



Conservative - 28 (+6)
Labour - 3 (-7)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (+1)

National seat totals after part eight:
Labour - 282 (-67)
Conservative - 278 (+68) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Liberal Democrats - 56 (-6)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 44

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

The Norwich seats are anyone's guess. In Norwich South, Charles Clarke's personal vote could help him hold on, and a recent constituency poll has him bucking the trend and doing better than 2005. Although, constituency polls are notoriously bad. It'll very close in Norwich North, but surely disenfranchised Labour voters got it out of there system in the by-election last summer...

I say they'll fall or be held as a pair.

Anyone got any thoughts on Ester Ranzen in Luton South? I don't know what to make of her candidacy and how it will affect things.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia)



Labour - 31 (-10)
Conservative - 20 (+11)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)

National seat totals after part nine:
Conservative - 289 (+79) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 272 (-77)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 37

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

[Torie]

Are any regions left other than the Midlands at this point?  The suspense as the Tories crawl towards a majority map by regional map, as to whether they make it, is killing me!  Thanks.

Oh, and is there any source that allows one to identify the constituencies which appear on the maps?  My knowledge of Great Britain geography is reasonable, but hardly sufficient, for this exercise.

[You kip if you want to...]

Are any regions left other than the Midlands at this point?  The suspense as the Tories crawl towards a majority map by regional map, as to whether they make it, is killing me!  Thanks.

Oh, and is there any source that allows one to identify the constituencies which appear on the maps?  My knowledge of Great Britain geography is reasonable, but hardly sufficient, for this exercise.

Yeah, i'm splitting the Midlands into East and West. I might have them both done within a few hours.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/interactive/2010/apr/05/general-election-map-swingometer
http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/Predictions

Not my predictions, but they'll do for a constituency map.

[afleitch]

I have a soft spot for the Guardian one

[You kip if you want to...]

I have a soft spot for the Guardian one

Isn't it yours? It's exactly the same as the template in the Atlas Gallery.

[afleitch]

I have a soft spot for the Guardian one

Isn't it yours? It's exactly the same as the template in the Atlas Gallery.

Yes; they appear to have used it. Though I based mine on Boothroyd's so it's in public domain anyways

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 10: The West Midlands (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia - Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber)



Conservative - 34 (+16)
Labour - 24 (-14)
Liberal Democrats - 1 (-1)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)

National seat totals after part ten:
Conservative - 305 (+95) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 258 (-91)
Liberal Democrats - 54 (-8)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 21

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

Can the Tories gain 21 seats from East Midlands and, if not, can their coalition with the UUP in Northern Ireland carry them over? Find out later when I post part 11, The East Midlands.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 11: The East Midlands (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia - Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber - Part 10: The West Midlands)



Conservative - 30 (+11)
Labour - 14 (-12)
Liberal Democrats - 2 (+1)

National seat totals after part eleven:
Conservative - 316 (+106) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 246 (-103)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 10

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

I'll have an attempt at Northern Ireland, but expect some crackpot predictions since I have very little knowledge of Northern Irish politics.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 12: Northern Ireland (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia - Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber - Part 10: The West Midlands - The East Midlands)



Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (±0)
Sinn Féin - 5 (±0)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3 (±0)
Sylvia Hermon - 1 (+1)
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force - 0 (-1)

National seat totals after part eleven:
Conservative - 316 (+106) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 246 (-103)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (±0)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Sinn Féin - 5 (±0)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3 (±0)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
Sylvia Hermon - 1 (+1)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force - 0 (-1)


Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 10

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

And a link to the whole prediction map:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1582/2010prediction.png

[Torie]

I don't understand the Northern Ireland numbers. It seems most parties have been zeroed out.

[You kip if you want to...]

I don't understand the Northern Ireland numbers. It seems most parties have been zeroed out.

The first number, next to the party name, is the number of seats the party has, the second number is the brackets is the net gain. None of the main 3 parties have candidates in Northern Ireland, except for the UUP's alliance with the Conservatives.

[Torie]

So if the Democratic Unionist Party aligns with the Tories, the Tories are short of a majority by one, is that correct?

[Hash]

Shinners hold F-ST?